Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot Gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.


The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Validation of Operational Pre/potential Tropical Cyclones (ptcs) Using Model Diagnostics


This study uses diagnostics of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) models to validate pre or potential Tropical Cyclone (TC) operational tracks. Disturbances that precede tropical cyclones are tracked using satellite imagery and model fields by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and are designated as ?Invests? or ?9X? storms. The TC ?diagnostics files? used as input into the dynamical-statistical SHIPS and LGEM intensity forecast models provide statistics for spatially averaged large-scale, environment variables surrounding the pTC as it is tracked by NHC/JTWC. Disturbances from 2007-2015 are studied as they either develop into a tropical cyclone, or dissipate (i.e., non-developers). This study discusses differences in variables between the pTCs that develop and those that never reach the TC stage. We find substantial differences in variable trends over time between developing and non-developing pTCs. Those that develop show lower shear, higher precipitable water, higher relative humidity, and more tendencies toward warm core systems as many as 2-4 days before development. These differences are consistent across all global basins and several years. Furthermore, two case studies are discussed -- one in early summer 2015 and the other in January 2014 (a 10 day ?landphoon' over western Australia) that demonstrate the value of operational pTCs and that provide insight into TC genesis.

Article / Publication Data
Available Metadata
Fiscal Year
Published On
January 01, 2016

This publication was presented at the following:

2016 - 96th AMS Annual Meeting
Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Conference presentation


Not available


Authors who have authored or contributed to this publication.

Not available