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Modeling Ozone In The Eastern U.S. Using A Fuel-based Mobile Source Emissions Inventory

Abstract

Recent studies suggest overestimates in current U.S. emission inventories of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2). Here, we expand a previously developed fuel-based inventory of motor-vehicle emissions (FIVE) to the continental U.S. for the year 2013, and evaluate our estimates of mobile source emissions with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s National Emissions Inventory (NEI) interpolated to 2013. We find that mobile source emissions of NOx and carbon monoxide (CO) in the NEI are higher than FIVE by 28% and 90%, respectively. Using a chemical transport model, we model mobile source emissions from FIVE, and find consistent levels of urban NOx and CO as measured during the Southeast Nexus (SENEX) Study in 2013. Lastly, we assess the sensitivity of ozone (O3) over the Eastern U.S. to uncertainties in mobile source NOx emissions and biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. The ground-level O3 is sensitive to reductions in mobile source NOx emissions, most notably in the Southeastern U.S. and during O3 exceedance events, under the revised standard proposed in 2015 (>70 ppb, 8 h maximum). This suggests that decreasing mobile source NOx emissions could help in meeting more stringent O3 standards in the future.

Article / Publication Data
Active/Online
YES
Volume
52
Available Metadata
DOI ↗
Fiscal Year
Peer Reviewed
YES
Publication Name
Environmental Science & Technology
Published On
June 05, 2018
Publisher Name
American Chemical Society
Print Volume
52
Print Number
13
Page Range
7360-7370
Issue
13
URL ↗

Authors

Authors who have authored or contributed to this publication.

  • Brian C. McDonald - lead Other noaa
    Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder
    NOAA/Global Systems Laboratory
  • Ravan Ahmadov - fourth Gsl
    Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder
    NOAA/Global Systems Laboratory