Testing Convective Scale Data Assimilation In Severe Storm Cases Using Variational LAPS

Abstract

The Experimental Warning Program (EWP) is part of NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) and held annually at spring time at the National Weather Center. In Spring 2013, several tornadoes touched down, including the deadly EF5 Moore tornado that killed 24 people and caused millions of dollars damage on 20 May 2013. In this paper, we will introduce the variational version of the Local Analysis and Prediction System (vLAPS). VLAPS is a fine scale numerical data assimilation and forecast system. We will select several cases of supercell storms and tornadoes to highlight the real-time performance of variational LAPS including some feedback from forecasters who used variational LAPS together with other available numerical guidance to provide experimental warnings.