Evaluation of The Improved Humidity Analysis In Multiscale Data Assimilation On Windsor Tornado

Abstract

A numerical weather forecast model (WRF) is initialized using analysis generated by Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) using the new 3-D variational Space-Time Multiscale Analysis System (STMAS) version to evaluate its performance over the recent improvement in humidity analysis on Windsor Tornado forecast. LAPS combines the information from a limited area (weather prediction) model forecast, and a wide range of observational data to produce high-resolution analysis. The performance of this configuration of the analysis and forecast model will be verified against both conventional and independent dataset. The goal of this study is twofold: 1) to assess the impact of humidity analysis in STMAS on Windsor Tornado; and 2) to identify and resolve any inconsistencies of LAPS with the WRF model for improving forecast. In this presentation, We will show the improved fine resolution wind and simulated radar reflectivity forecasts. We will also show the sensitivity of model forecasts to different microphysical schemes, and grid resolutions.