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The first test version of the Ensemble Tool was released to WFO forecasters as an ATAN for OB14.4.1 in July. This version provides the capabilities that were demonstrated on the ALPS platform: spaghetti and plume displays, simple statistics calculations, and pointwise polling. Developments in response to the feedback from the ATAN process will be reported. In addition, two new features should be ready for demonstration at the Conference: distribution polling (allowing forecasters to estimate event probabilities in DSS roles), and a method to facilitate quick comparisons between two or more ensemble members that may represent distinctly different weather scenarios for a given user. Each of these capabilities is to enable the WFO forecaster to provide individualized, interactive decision support to users, enriching the base (official) forecast with practical expressions of forecast uncertainty.
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