Fostering Open Communication About Forecast Improvement (invited Presentation)

Abstract

Improvements in weather forecasting occur through both large and small improvements in modeling, observations and computers. Competing priorities for forecast lead time, geographic location and specific weather parameters result in divergent views on how to best improve weather forecasts. Even methods for testing proposed changes can test collaorative spirits as conflicting interests and evaluation approaches can stall forward progress. With the emergence of significant efforts on the part of private and academic groups, the challenge remains to establish principles that respect entities' priorities and specific values. Fostering successful collaborations requires more than respecting boundaries, but also identifying areas of mutual interest in weather forecasting. With finite resources, competing interests, and dispersed expertise, the challenges may seem daunting; however the rewards in terms of significantly improved weather forecasts to the end user are strong enough to bring people to the talbe to discuss solutions.