Software Development To Support Probabilistic Forecasting On AWIPS Ii

Abstract

The National Weather Service is investigating the notion of enhancing its weather forecasts with estimates of uncertainty. Today's practice is to convey only the most likely forecast scenarios among the many possible; the NWS intends to also provide probabilities of other future weather outcomes. The NWS has taken several steps to make this happen. It commissioned the National Academy of Sciences to analyze the potential societal value and current state of the art of “completing the forecast” with uncertainty information. It organized a NOAA-internal committee to recommend and oversee activities related to probabilistic forecasting. The activities of this committee motivated the ESRL Global Systems Division to instigate research and development to support this movement. One of the projects to emerge aims to equip the next generation of the NWS Advanced Weather Information Processing System, AWIPS II, with software tools and datasets required to enable WFO forecasters to deliver well-calibrated probabilistic weather forecasts to the National Digital Forecast Database. The same system is intended to serve National Center forecasters, but the focus of this presentation is the capabilities that will support forecasters at the 100+ NWS field offices. We will present the methodologies being developed and provide examples of their use and output. This presentation is intended as a companion to an exhibit featuring a live workstation where these capabilities are demonstrated.