For the past four years, The ESRL Global Systems Divisions has produced probabilistic thunderstorm likelihood forecasts by applying statistical post-processing techniques to timelagged ensembles of Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model output. Since March of 2005, these forecasts have been distributed in real-time to the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and other users. At AWC, the products have provided guidance to humans, who prepare various convective forecasts, including the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP). These RUC-based convective forecasts have continued to evolve and new features have been added. Currently two specific products, the RUC Convective Probability Forecast (RCPF) and Potential Echo Top Forecast (PETF) are being created with hourly updates and hourly output to 10-h.
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