Hourly Convective Probability Forecasts and Experimental HIGH-RESOLUTION Predictions Based On The Radar Reflectivity Assimilating RUC Model

Abstract

Despite a significant research effort over the past two decades, the prediction of convective storms and the associated warm season precipitation prediction problem remains a formidable modeling and assimilation challenge. The large forecast uncertainty associated with convective situations, even at very short lead times, coupled with the severity of weather often associated with convective storms, makes this perhaps the most significant short-range forecast challenge confronting the operational numerical weather prediction community. As an example, the commercial aviation industry is particularly vulnerable to convective storms, with resulting flight delays and diversions spiking every summer.