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Hourly Convective Probability Forecasts and Experimental HIGH-RESOLUTION Predictions Based On The Radar Reflectivity Assimilating RUC Model


Despite a significant research effort over the past two decades, the prediction of convective storms and the associated warm season precipitation prediction problem remains a formidable modeling and assimilation challenge. The large forecast uncertainty associated with convective situations, even at very short lead times, coupled with the severity of weather often associated with convective storms, makes this perhaps the most significant short-range forecast challenge confronting the operational numerical weather prediction community. As an example, the commercial aviation industry is particularly vulnerable to convective storms, with resulting flight delays and diversions spiking every summer.

Article / Publication Data
Available Metadata
Fiscal Year
Published On
January 01, 2008

This publication was presented at the following:

13th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
American Meteorolgical Society
Conference presentation


Not available


Authors who have authored or contributed to this publication.

  • kevin brundage - Not Positioned Gsl
    Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder
    NOAA/Global Systems Laboratory