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A time-phased multi-model ensemble forecast system is investigated for short-range quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) and probability QPF (PQPF). One of the advantages of such an ensemble forecast system is its low-cost generation of ensemble members. The combined use of this ensemble system and a frequently-cycling data-assimilation system with a diabatic initialization (such as NOAA-LAPS) makes up a particularly appealing approach for the application of the QPF and PQPF.
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