NOAA is running an experimental ensemble prediction during the 2010 hurricane season using the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The EnKF is computed at T254L64, and as well, a hybrid EnKF-variational analysis system is being generated, with the variational component at T574L64. This talk will present overall tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast statistics of the EnKF and hybrid systems compared to other operational ensemble prediction systems, including the operational NCEP, European Centre (ECMWF), UK Met Office, and Canadian Meteorological Centre ensemble systems. Lessons learned from the development of the EnKF and hybrid systems will be discussed.
This publication was presented at the following: