The Quality Assessment Product Development Team (QA PDT) worked to determine the value of advanced forecasts for aviation as it pertains to strategic Traffic Flow Management (TFM) for the 2010 convective season. The current operational convective forecast, CCFP, was used to define the baseline of performance against which experimental products were compared. CoSPA and the Localized Aviation MOS Program/Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Hybrid (LAMP CCFP Hybrid, LCH), along with CoSPA's parent model the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), were the focus of the study. Using narrow meteorological verification contexts and techniques can yield misleading information on how the products may benefit an operational air traffic planner, especially when the products themselves are different (e.g. probabilistic vs. deterministic). Therefore, we will present a framework that is used to transform forecasts, both deterministic and probabilistic, to a common frame of reference so that comparisons of forecast quality for aviation operations can be derived. This framework allows for direct comparisons between the forecasts, comparisons against the operational CCFP baseline, and supplemental relationships between the forecasts. We will describe these transformation processes and the benefits and issues with implementing these procedures. This research is in response to requirements and funding provided by the Federal Aviation Administration. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy and position of the U.S. Government.
This publication was presented at the following: