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Jennifer L. Mahoney authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.
Quality Assessment Report: Graphical Turbulence Guidance, Version 2.5
Summary:This report summarizes a formal quality assessment in support of the transition of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance version 2.5 (GTG2.5) algorithm to National Weather Service (NWS) operations. The current operational algorithm, GTG2, is based on the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC; Benjamin 2004) prediction system. The upcoming replacement of t...
The Quality Assessment Product Development Team (QA PDT) worked to determine the value of advanced forecasts for aviation as it pertains to strategic Traffic Flow Management (TFM) for the 2010 convective season. The current operational convective forecast, CCFP, was used to define the baseline of performance against which experimental products w...
An object-based approach for identifying and evaluating convective initiation
Managing the safe flow of aviation air traffic in hazardous weather conditions is dependent upon weather forecasts that accurately depict the initiation of convective thunderstorms 4, 6 and 8 hours in the future. Since forecasts of convective initiation are in their infancy, they require improvement to become a reliable and accurate depiction of...
A performance assessment of the National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis Product.
Intoduction: In the context of pre-flight planning, this evaluation is carried out to measure the ability of the National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis product (NCVA) to properly characterize categorical flight conditions?– ceiling and visibility?– across the Continental United States (CONUS). In performing a comprehensive assessment we evalua...
This report summarizes a formal quality assessment of CoSPA, a high-resolution convective forecast being developed for use in air traffic management. On behalf of the Federal Aviation Administration’s Aviation Weather Research Program, and in support of an Aviation Weather Technology Tran sfer (AWTT) D4 (operationa l) decision point, this study ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Quality Assessment Report: National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis Product
This report summarizes a formal quality assessment of the National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis product (NCVA), a gridded analysis th at evaluates reported ceiling and visibility information for the purpose of improving the flight planning process. On behalf of the Federal Aviation Administration’s Aviation Weather Research Program, and in su...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Global icing forecast verification using CloudSat data
Intended for use in operational flight planning, global icing forecasts have been developed by the World Area Forecast System's (WAFS) London and Washington centers. This paper describes an assessment of the quality of the forecasts with respect to the planning process. Icing, rarely occurring at upper levels, has little impact on aviation at t...
FORECAST ASSESSMENT FOR THE NEW YORK 2008 CONVECTIVE WEATHER PROJECT
This study assesses the performance of the Enhanced Convective Forecast (ECF) and its associated model product, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) composite reflectivity, both of which were used as experimental forecasts during the New York 2008 Convective Weather Project. The evaluation compares the performance of the ECF and WRF ...
An Operational Perspective for Evaluating Convective Nowcasts for Aviation
As the United States is moving toward automated air traffic decision tools (NextGen), evaluating forecasts for potential operational use is key. Air traffic management, current or future, needs convective nowcasts (0-6 h) for information on how to best route traffic between aviation centers, sectors, and jetways. Current and future operational a...
Estimates of the economic value of weather forecasts for use in air traffic management (ATM) would significantly bolster current verification information, allowing for better decisions regarding the type and quality of data required for NextGen. The complexity of ATM, however, demands an approach beyond the traditional cost/loss model, which cle...
The developmental testbed center and its winter forecasting experiment
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) was formed to promote exchanges between the development and operational communities in the field of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). The WRF DTC serves to accelerate the transfer of NWP technology from research to operations and to support a subset of the...
A lead-time metric for assessing skill in forecasting the onset of IFR events
The Real-time Verification System (RTVS), developed by NOAA-ESRL/GSD's Aviation Branch, is principally focused on supporting and advancing verification activities within the FAA's Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP). RTVS provides performance metrics for new forecast algorithms that are being transitioned into National Weather Service (NWS)...
The Quality Assessment Research Team (QART) and NextGen Alignment
The Quality Assessment Research Team (QART) is one of nine Research Teams supported by the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP). Unlike most of the AWRP aviation weather teams (e.g., Inflight Icing, Turbulence, etc.), the QART is an independent assessment team with three main functions: 1) to provide objective assessments of aviation wea...
The Quality Assessment Research Team (QART) and NEXTGEN Alignment
Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) version 2.3
Results of an evaluation of GTG version 2.3 (GTG2.3) are presented in this report. The algorithm was analyzed from 1 November 2005 through 31 January 2006. Additionally, GTG2.3 was compared to several existing operational turbulence forecasts including GTG version 1.0 (GTG). Forecasts were verified with pilot reports of turbulence. The primary f...
Institution Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL
National Convective Hazard Detection Product
The National Convective Hazard Detection (NCHD) product, created by the Federal Aviation Administration Aviation Weather Research Program’s Convective Weather Product Development Team (FAA/AWRP/CW PDT), is being considered for transition from experimental status to National Weather Service (NWS) operations. In support of the decision process, th...
As part of an effort to assess the quality of the Cloud Top Height (CTOP) product recently developed by the Oceanic Weather Product Development Team (OWPDT) of the Federal Aviation Administration Aviation Weather Research Program (FAA/AWRP), a comparison of CTOP and the NESDIS/CIMSS Cloud Top Pressure (NCTP) product was performed. This study sum...
The FAA Aviation Weather Research Program Quality Assessment Product Development Team
The FAA Aviation Weather Research Program is engaged in research that is directed toward improving weather forecasts for the aviation community. Much of this research, in the form of automated algorithms to predict aviation weather phenomena such as icing and turbulence, is transferred from research laboratories to the National Weather Service (...
Quality Assessment Report National Convective Weather Forecast 2 (NCWF-2)
This report summarizes a statistical evaluation of the quality of the National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF-2) product, developed by the Convective Weather Product Development Team under the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Aviation Weather Research Program. The document provides an assessment of the NCWF-2 forecasting capability, in...
Institution Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL
Near real-time verification at the Forecast Systems Laboratory: An operational perspective
Meteorological forecasts are created for a wide spectrum of uses in society. They range from forecasts of maximum expected temperature to predictions of rare and severe events that present a threat to human life and property. In order to provide the highest level of service possible, every forecast created should have a corresponding verificatio...
NEW VERIFICATION APPROACHES FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER FORECASTS
FORECASTERS' EVALUATION OF THE INTEGRATED TURBULENCE FORECAST ALGORITHM (ITFA), WINTER 2003
VERIFICATION OF OCEANIC WEATHER DIAGNOSES AND FORECASTS FOR AVIATION WEATHER ELEMENTS
Scale Sensitivities in Model Precipitation Skill Scores During IHOP
Traditional statistical measures used to evaluate precipitation forecast skill are affected by variations in the scale of the features in both the forecast and verification fields. This scale-dependence complicates the comparison of precipitation fields that contain differing degrees of small-scale detail and is especially important for warm sea...
Forecaster's evaluation of the integrated turbulence forecast algorithm (ITFA)
Aviation forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and United Airlines (UAL) participated in a subjective evaluation of automated turbulence forecasts during the period 23 January through 1 April 2003. The forecasts were generated by the Integrated Turbulence Forecast Algorithm (ITFA)...
Current Icing Potential for Alaska (CIP-AK): Quality Assessment Report
Current Icing Potential for Alaska (CIP-AK). CIP-AK was developed by the Inflight Icing Product Development Team of the Federal Aviation Administration Aviation Weather Research Program (FAA/AWRP), and is currently being considered for transition to an experimental product through the Aviation Weather Technology Transfer (AWTT) process. This rep...
IMPROVED APPROACHES FOR MEASURING THE QUALITY OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER FORECASTS
VERIFICATION OF THE IN-FLIGHT ICING DIAGNOSTIC ALGORITHM (IIDA
Forecaster Assessment of Turbulence Algorithms: A Summary of Results for the Winter 2000 Study
The FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) has funded the Turbulence Product Development Team (PDT) to develop model-based forecasts of clear-air turbulence (CAT). In support of this development, the quality of various CAT forecasts were objectively evaluated over two winter seasons: 1 January–31 March 1999 (Brown et al. 1999, 2000) and 10...
Quality Assessment for the National Convective Weather Forecast Product
Institution National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR
Forecaster assessments of turbulence algorithms: A summary of the winter 2000 study
The use of verification from an operational forecaster's perspective
Use of Verification from an Operational Forecaster's Perspective
Verification of the Aviation Weather Center's convective SIGMET outlooks using RTVS
Benefits of using FSL's Real-Time Verification System at the NWS/NCEP Aviation Weather Center
Institution Forecast Systems Laboratory - FSL
AutoNowcaster Pilot Evaluation Study
Institution Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL
Lead Time and Displacement Error for Thunderstorm Forecasts in Terminal and Jetway Domains
This report follows upon a previous quality assessment of the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Thunderstorm Probability field. As before, the evaluation focuses on the onset and cessation of significant thunderstorm activity around 29 major U.S. airports and the ability of forecasts to accurately place thunderstorms in space and time. E...
Quality Assessment Report: National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis Product
"This report summarizes a formal quality assessment of the National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis product (NCVA), a gridded analysis that evaluates reported ceiling and visibility information for the purpose of improving flight planning process. On behalf of the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Weather Research Program, and in suppor...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA