The FAA Aviation Weather Research Program Quality Assessment Product Development Team

Abstract

The FAA Aviation Weather Research Program is engaged in research that is directed toward improving weather forecasts for the aviation community. Much of this research, in the form of automated algorithms to predict aviation weather phenomena such as icing and turbulence, is transferred from research laboratories to the National Weather Service (NWS) through the Aviation Weather Technology Transfer (AWTT) process. The main purpose of the Quality Assessment Product Development Team (QA PDT) is to objectively evaluate the forecasting performance of these automated algorithms and ensure that the algorithms provide improved forecasting capabilities. Since its inception 4 years ago, the QA PDT staff has supported the transition of the National Convective Forecast Product (NCWF), Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG), Current Icing Potential (CIP), and the Forecast Icing Potential (FIP) to full operational status at the NWS Aviation Weather Center (AWC) for use as forecast guidance to AWC forecasters.In support of the QA PDT evaluation responsibility, the PDT staff work diligently to advance verification methodologies to address the complexities of aviation weather forecasts. For instance, an effort to develop approaches that incorporate the operational significance or impact of an aviation forecast is underway. Also, new observation datasets, such those produced by satellites, are being investigated by the PDT staff for use in assessing the quality of global aviation forecasts. This paper summarizes the responsibilities of the QA PDT and highlights some of the recent accomplishments. The report is organized as follows: Section 2 summarizes the methodology used by the PDT to assess the quality of forecasts transitioning through the AWTT process; Section 3 highlights many of the PDT’s recent accomplishments; and Section 4 outlines the future goals of the PDT.