Using Verification Techniques To Evaluate Differences Among Convective Forecasts

Abstract

With the implementation of National Convective Weather Forecast Product (NCWF) and the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) into National Weather Service (NWS) operations, users are striving to understand the similarities and differences between the various products, their application to aviation operations, and how each forecast fits within the context of on-going forecast products, such as the Convective SIGMET. As stated in Brooks and Doswell (1996), verification of weather forecasts is an essential part of any forecasting system. It can provide a mechanism for identifying the strengths and weakness in forecasting systems and provide a method for choosing appropriate forecasting procedures for measuring improvement. Following Brooks and Doswell (1996), an intercomparison exercise was conducted from 1 April – 30 September 2001 to obtain an understanding of these strengths and weaknesses. In order to do so, the forecasts were compared using verification methods that were consistently applied. In this paper, we will demonstrate that by comparing various convective forecasts the differences and similarities of the forecasts are brought to light and that this approach is useful for evaluating how the forecasts can be used.