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Joan E. Hart authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.
2007 CONVECTIVE FORECAST SCIENTIFIC EVALUATION
The goal of this scientific evaluation is to assess the performance of several convective forecasts with respect to their application to operational air traffic flow planning. Five forecasts, including Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) Preliminary and Final, Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) Convective Probability Forecast (RCPF), RUC Refl...
Aligning forecast verification with user-specific needs: An example for aviation
Brier and Allen (1951) state that there are three primary purposes for performing objective evaluations of forecast quality: administrative, scientific, and economic. The separation of administrative purposes from scientific purposes is not particularly significant in practice. The primary difference is that administrative verification is closel...
An analysis of CCFP forecast performance for the 2005 convective season
The Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) continues to evolve as the primary tool through which the meteorological community and the commercial aviation industry have come together to create a common forecast to address the impact of convective weather on the national airspace at strategic time scales (2 to 6 hours). Since its incepti...
DEFINING OBSERVATION FIELDS FOR VERIFICATION OF SPATIAL FORECASTS OF CONVECTION
Using verification techniques to evaluate differences among convective forecasts
With the implementation of National Convective Weather Forecast Product (NCWF) and the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) into National Weather Service (NWS) operations, users are striving to understand the similarities and differences between the various products, their application to aviation operations, and how each forecast fit...
USING VERIFICATION TECHNIQUES TO EVALUATE DIFFERENCS AMONG CONVECTIVE FORECASTS
The Turbulence Algorithm Intercomparison Exercise: Statistical Verification Results
During the winter of 1998-99, forecasts of clear-air turbulence produced by a large number of turbulence indices were compared. The 14 algorithms considered in the study include a number of algorithms that have been available for many years, as well as algorithms that are newly under development. The algorithm forecasts were based on output of t...
The Turbulence Algorithm Intercomparison Exercise: Statistical Verification Results
This paper summarizes results of a winter 1998-99 intercomparison of the forecasting capability of a number of clear-air turbulence (CAT) forecasting algorithms. This study was undertaken by the Turbulence Product Development Team (PDT) of the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA’s) Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP). Purposes of the int...
The Turbulence Algorithm Intercomparison Exercise statistical verification results
Convective Intercomparison Exercise: Baseline Statistical Results
Each summer, convective weather is responsible for disrupting the flow of air traffic. In an attempt to mitigate this disruption, experimental forecasts, such as the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) and the National Convective Weather Forecast Product (NCWFP) were developed. These forecasts and those produced by the Aviation Weat...
Statistical verification results for the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product
Convective intercomparison exercise: Baseline statistical results
Assessment of Graphical Turbulence Guidance, Global (GTG-G), Part 1
The Quality Assessment Product Development Team (QA PDT) was tasked with assessing a globalversion of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG-G) as part of the transition process to operations. The GTG-G was developed by the Turbulence Product Development Team in theResearch Applications Laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
An Impact-Based Verification Approach for the TFM Convective Forecast (TCF)
In 2016 and 2017, the Forecast Impact and Quality Assessment Section of NOAA/ESRL/GSD was funded by the NWS Aviation and Space Weather Services Branch to develop a verification tool for the TFM Convective Forecast, produced by the NWS Aviation Weather Center, to replace the verification capabilities originally provided by the Real Time Verificat...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Ensemble Prediction of Oceanic Convective Hazards (EPOCH) Assessment: Part II
This document is Part II of a report of the Quality Assessment Product Development Team’s (QA PDT) assessment of the Ensemble Prediction of Oceanic Convective Hazards (EPOCH). EPOCH was developed by the Convective Weather Product Development Team (CW PDT) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). EPOCH aims to forecast convection-r...
Quality Assessment Report: National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis Product
This report summarizes a formal quality assessment of the National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis product (NCVA), a gridded analysis th at evaluates reported ceiling and visibility information for the purpose of improving the flight planning process. On behalf of the Federal Aviation Administration’s Aviation Weather Research Program, and in su...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Quality Assessment Report: National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis Product
"This report summarizes a formal quality assessment of the National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis product (NCVA), a gridded analysis that evaluates reported ceiling and visibility information for the purpose of improving flight planning process. On behalf of the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Weather Research Program, and in suppor...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Assessment of the Convective Weather Avoidance Model Upgrade
The Quality Assessment Product Development Team (QA PDT) was tasked with assessing the recent upgrade of the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) Weather Avoidance Field (WAF). The purpose of this assessment was to measure the performance of this recent upgrade; the current version of the CWAM WAF is used operationally in aviation forecast ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA