Forecaster Assessment of Turbulence Algorithms: A Summary of Results For The Winter 2000 Study

Abstract

The FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) has funded the Turbulence Product Development Team (PDT) to develop model-based forecasts of clear-air turbulence (CAT). In support of this development, the quality of various CAT forecasts were objectively evaluated over two winter seasons: 1 January–31 March 1999 (Brown et al. 1999, 2000) and 10 January–31 March 2000 (Brown et al. 2000). The winter 2000 evaluation was modified to also include a subjective assessment of the CAT algorithms by Aviation Weather Center (AWC) forecasters covering the period from 18 February-31 March 2000. The goals of the subjective assessment were to: 1) supplement the objective assessment with a meteorological classification of turbulence events, 2) identify the frequency of the meteorological factors leading to turbulence, 3) obtain a subjective evaluation of algorithm performance, and 4) compare the differences/similarities between the objective and subjective assessments of the quality of the turbulence forecasts. This document summarizes the results of the winter 2000 subjective assessment of the turbulence forecasts by the AWC forecasters, addressing goals 1, 2, and 3. The comparison of differences/similarities between the objective and subjective assessments, goal 4, will be done at a later date. The information presented in this document should be used to supplement other objective information to help identify the strengths and weakness of each of the algorithms.