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Jeffrey R. Beck authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.
A Progress Report on the Development of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE) is a 36-member ensemble analysis system with 9 forecast members that utilizes the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) dynamic core and the physics suite from the operational Rapid Refresh/High-Resolution Rapid Refresh deterministic modeling system. A goal ...
Institutions National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A new hybrid, sigma-pressure vertical coordinate was recently added to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in an effort to reduce numerical noise in the model equations near complex terrain. Testing of this hybrid, terrain-following coordinate was undertaken in the WRF-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRR...
The Impacts of Using Mixed Physics in the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble
A well-known problem in high-resolution ensembles has been a lack of sufficient spread among members. Modelers often have used mixed physics to increase spread, but this can introduce problems including computational expense, clustering of members, and members that are not all equally skillful. Thus, a detailed examination of the impacts of usin...
Institution National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR
Stochastically Perturbed Parameterizations in a HRRR-Based Ensemble
A stochastically perturbed parameterization (SPP) approach that spatially and temporally perturbs parameters and variables in the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino planetary boundary layer scheme (PBL) and introduces initialization perturbations to soil moisture in the Rapid Update Cycle land surface model was developed within the High Resolution Ra...
Institutions National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A stochastic parameter perturbation (SPP) scheme consisting of spatially and temporally varying perturbations of uncertain parameters in the Grell–Freitas convective scheme and the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino planetary boundary scheme was developed within the Rapid Refresh ensemble system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Al...
Institutions National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Lack of spread is a common deficiency in ensemble models and results in over-confident and inaccurate forecasts. A number of options exist to increase the spread of an ensemble, including the use of multiple physics parameterizations or dynamic cores. However, implementation of these options can be cumbersome, costly, and suffer from certain t...
Institution National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR
Development and verification of two convection-allowing multi-model ensembles over Western Europe
Three storm-scale ensemble prediction models (AROME-EPS, COSMO-DE-EPS and MOGREPS-UK) were combined over Western Europe to create two convection-allowing, multi-model ensemble prediction systems (EPSs), with the goal of improving ensemble spread–skill relationships and probabilistic forecasting ability. A shared, uniform grid of ∼2.2 km resoluti...
The 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) and 3-km convective-allowing High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) are hourly updating weather forecast models that use a specially configured version of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and assimilate many novel and most conventional observation types on an hourly basis using Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
This study evaluates simulated radiance forecasts from a series of controlled experiments consisting of FV3-LAM forecasts with different configurations of model physics and vertical resolution. The forecasts were produced during the 2020 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments on the same forecast cases. The evaluation includes ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA