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Articles that are assoicated with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Devised scheme to correct GOES bias in GOES operational total precipitable water productsThe National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) Geostationary Observational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-derived, total precipitable water (TPW) vapor product is routinely produced at NESDIS for Advanced Weather Intera...
Authors: Kirk L. Holub seth I. gutman daniel L. birkenheuer susan R. sahm · Updated March 15, 2021
CO2 Transport, Variability, and Budget over the Southern California Air Basin Using the High-Resolution WRF-VPRM Model during the CalNex 2010 CampaignTo study regional-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) transport, temporal variability, and budget over the Southern California Air Basin (SoCAB) during the California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) 2010 campaign period, a ...
Authors: Changhyoun Park Ravan Ahmadov · Updated June 11, 2021
Using VIIRS fire radiative power data to simulate biomass burning emissions, plume rise and smoke transport in a real-time air quality modeling system
Authors: Georg A. Grell Stanley G. Benjamin Curtis R. Alexander Ravan Ahmadov Eric P. James · Updated March 01, 2022
Web-based prototype decision support toolNOAA ESRL has created a software tool that is aimed at exploring optimum methods for disseminating weather prediction data directly to an individual decision maker, supporting both economic and personal decisions. This includes a web interface tha...
Authors: Kirk L. Holub Paula McCaslin · Updated April 05, 2021
Progress on FIM development toward membership in the North American Ensemble Forecast System
Authors: John M. Brown Rainer Bleck Shan Sun thomas B. henderson Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Stanley G. Benjamin susan R. sahm Jian-Wen bao James Rosinski Brian D. Jamison · Updated April 07, 2021
100 Years of Progress in Forecasting and NWP ApplicationsOver the past 100 years, the collaborative effort of the international science community, including government weather services and the media, along with the associated proliferation of environmental observations, improved scientific understanding...
Authors: Stanley G. Benjamin John M. Brown Gilbert Brunet Peter Lynch Kazuo Saito Thomas W. Schlatter · Updated October 06, 2021
A Twenty-First-Century California Observing Network for Monitoring Extreme Weather EventsDuring Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount concern to California, where aging water supply and flood protection infrastructures are challenged...
Authors: allen B. white Michael L. Anderson Michael D. Dettinger F Martin. ralph Arthur Hinojosa Daniel R. Cayan Robert K. Hartman David W. Reynolds Lynn E. Johnson Timothy L. Schneider Robert C. Cifelli Zoltan Toth seth I. gutman Clark W. King Frank Gehrke Paul E. Johnston Chris Walls Doerte Mann Daniel J. Gottas timothy Coleman · Updated April 07, 2021
A Review and Evaluation of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations in Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model Using Idealized Simulations and ObservationsThis paper reviews the evolution of planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes that have been used in the operational version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model since 2011. Idealized simulations are then us...
Authors: Evan A. Kalina Jun A. Zhang · Updated April 08, 2021
Exploring Convection - Allowing Model Evaluation Strategies for Severe Local Storms Using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) Model CoreVerification methods for convection-allowing models (CAMs) should consider the finescale spatial and temporal detail provided by CAMs, and including both neighborhood and object-based methods can account for displaced features that may still provi...
Authors: Curtis R. Alexander Burkely T. Gallo · Updated April 08, 2021
On the estimation of boundary layer heights: A machine learning approachThe planetary boundary-layer height (zi) is a key parameter used in atmospheric models for estimating the exchange of heat, momentum and moisture between the surface and the free troposphere. Near-surface atmospheric and subsurface properties (suc...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner Raghavendra Krishnamurthy Rob K. Newsom Larry K. Berg Heng Xiao Po-Lun Ma · Updated June 15, 2021
A Study of Applying a 3D Instructional Software of Popular Science (Science On a Sphere Explorer) in Earth Science Education of an Elementary SchoolThe increasing popularization of information technology has gradually overcome the difficulties of educating earth science gradually. In the times of having only textbooks, we merely had 2D maps for references to educate earth science. However, it...
Authors: Eric Hackathorn Wen-Wei (Tony) Liao · Updated October 06, 2021
Effect of Fluvial Discharges and Remote Non-Tidal Residuals on Compound Flood Forecasting in San Francisco BayAccurate and timely flood forecasts are critical for making emergency-response decisions regarding public safety, infrastructure operations, and resource allocation. One of the main challenges for coastal flood forecasting systems is a lack of rel...
Authors: Greg Pratt Michael Leon Babak Tehranirad · Updated April 08, 2021
Giss-e2.1: Configurations and ClimatologyThis paper describes the GISS-E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS-E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocea...
Authors: Rainer Bleck Maxwell Kelley Shan Sun · Updated June 11, 2021
Global Estimates and Long-Term Trends of Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations (1998–2018)Exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading risk factor for mortality. We develop global estimates of annual PM2.5 concentrations and trends for 1998–2018 using advances in satellite observations, chemical transport modeling, ...
Authors: Melanie S. Hammer Li (Kate) Zhang · Updated April 08, 2021
Improving Wind Energy Forecasting through Numerical Weather Prediction Model DevelopmentThe primary goal of the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is to advance the state-of-the-art of wind energy forecasting in complex terrain. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive 18-month field measurement campaign was conducted in t...
Authors: Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon David (Dave) D. Turner Michael D. Toy John M. Brown Melinda C. Marquis · Updated April 08, 2021
The GEWEX Land-Atmosphere FeedbackObservatory (GLAFO)In the 21st century, due to climate change, a further increase in extreme events is expected. We must understand and predict these events as best as possible for the protection of humankind and the environment as well as for supporting a sustainab...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated April 08, 2021
Wind Ramp Events Validation in NWP Forecast Models during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) Using the Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M)The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is a multiagency field campaign held in the Columbia Gorge area (October 2015–March 2017). The main goal of the project is to understand and improve the forecast skill of numerical weather predi...
Authors: Joseph B. Olson David (Dave) D. Turner Jaymes S. Kenyon Irina V. Djalalova · Updated April 08, 2021
Scale Awareness, Resolved Circulations, and Practical Limits in the MYNN–EDMF Boundary Layer and Shallow Cumulus SchemeProper behavior of physics parameterizations in numerical models at grid sizes of order 1 km is a topic of current research. Modifications to parameterization schemes to accommodate varying grid sizes are termed “scale aware.” The general problem ...
Authors: Joseph B. Olson David (Dave) D. Turner Wayne M. Angevine Jake J. Gristey Ian Glenn Graham Feingold · Updated May 27, 2021
A Description of the MYNN-EDMF Scheme and the Coupling to Other Components in WRF–ARWThe Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) (Nakanishi and Niino 2001, 2004, 2006, and 2009) scheme was first integrated into the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) version 3.1 (Skamarock et al. 2008) by...
Authors: Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon John M. Brown · Updated April 08, 2021
A Bird’s Eye View: Development of an Operational ARM Unmanned Aerial Capability for Atmospheric Research in Arctic AlaskaUnmanned aerial capabilities offer exciting new perspectives on the Arctic atmosphere and the US Department of Energy is working with partners to offer such perspectives to the research community. Thorough understanding of aerosols, clouds, bou...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner Gijs de Boer · Updated April 08, 2021
Addressing a Warm/Dry Bias over Central North America with Improved Boundary Layer and Land Surface Physics and Data AssimilationRepresenting shallow cumulus in numerical weather prediction and climate models is a significant challenge. Misrepresenting these subgrid-scale clouds can result in large errors in the downwelling shortwave radiative flux at surface, resulting in ...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner Stanley G. Benjamin Joseph B. Olson Georg A. Grell Jaymes S. Kenyon Curtis R. Alexander · Updated April 08, 2021
A Method for Indentifying Convective Initiation in Forecasts and ObservationsA threshold-based, object-oriented CI detection and tracking algorithm was developed and the results of its application on CIWS and HRRR products were presented. A rule set for defining and tracking of CI was developed using the CIWS analysis prod...
Authors: Melissa A. Petty Matthew S. Wandishin · Updated April 08, 2021
Assimilating Differential Reflectivity Columns into the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Using Latent Heating ForcingThe High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) assimilates radar reflectivity information in order to skillfully forecast convection. This assimilation is done using an empirical relationship between reflectivity and latent heat release from hydrometeor...
Authors: David C. Dowell Therese (Terra) T. Ladwig Curtis R. Alexander Stanley G. Benjamin John M. Brown · Updated April 08, 2021
Assessment of Graphical Turbulence Guidance, Global (GTG-G), Part 1The Quality Assessment Product Development Team (QA PDT) was tasked with assessing a globalversion of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG-G) as part of the transition process to operations. The GTG-G was developed by the Turbulence Product Deve...
Authors: Matthew S. Wandishin Joan E. Hart Melissa A. Petty · Updated April 08, 2021
Application of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) to the Bay Area Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information ProjectThe Bay Area Flood Protection Association has just recently begun funding the Physical Sciences Division and Global Systems Division (GSD) of NOAA’s Earth System Research Lab (NOAA-ESRL), as well as the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Research in t...
Authors: Curtis R. Alexander Eric P. James John M. Brown David (Dave) D. Turner Stanley G. Benjamin Greg Pratt · Updated April 08, 2021
Addressing Common Cloud - Radiation Errors from ~4-hour to 4-week Model PredictionCloud-radiation representation in models for subgrid-scale clouds is a known gap from subseasonal-to-seasonal models down to storm-scale models applied for forecast duration of only a few hours. NOAA/ESRL has been applying common physical paramete...
Authors: Stanley G. Benjamin Shan Sun Georg A. Grell Benjamin W. Green Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon Eric P. James Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova John M. Brown · Updated April 08, 2021
Advancing New Satellite Products into Operations: CIRA's NWS Proving Ground PlansThe past year has been an exciting one for NWS operations with the successful launch of GOES-16 late in 2016. Forecasters are now seeing more satellite data then ever before, with both new satellite bands and an ever-increasing number of new satel...
Authors: Edward J. Szoke · Updated April 08, 2021
Aerosol Impact on Seasonal Prediction Using FIM-Chem-iHYCOM Coupled ModelThe coupled atmosphere, ocean and chemistry system using the global FIM-Chem-iHYCOM model is applied to subseasonal to seasonal prediction to investigate the aerosol impact on the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. The sources and sinks for aero...
Authors: Georg A. Grell Shan Sun · Updated April 08, 2021
An Impact-Based Verification Approach for the TFM Convective Forecast (TCF)In 2016 and 2017, the Forecast Impact and Quality Assessment Section of NOAA/ESRL/GSD was funded by the NWS Aviation and Space Weather Services Branch to develop a verification tool for the TFM Convective Forecast, produced by the NWS Aviation Wea...
Authors: Melissa A. Petty Geary J. Layne Matthew S. Wandishin Joan E. Hart Paul Hamer Michael Rabellino · Updated April 08, 2021
An Optimal 4D-Var Data Assimilation for Coupled Model–Air Quality and Weather ForecastingBoth atmospheric meteorology and chemistry models provide valuable societal and research services, from forecasting of weather to development of strategies for addressing the challenges of ambient air pollution and climate change. A specific atmos...
Authors: Mark W. Govett · Updated April 08, 2021
An Overview of Verification in Support of GSD Model Development and the Evolution of Process-Oriented Analysis ToolsVerification has been and continues to be essential to the development and operational transition of Global Science Division (GSD) models, particularly the Rapid Refresh (RAP) and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). To that end, the GSD Assi...
Authors: Jeffrey Hamilton William R. Moninger Kirk L. Holub Molly B. Smith Bonny Strong · Updated April 08, 2021
An Update on the Parallelization of the FV3 Model for cpu , gpu , and MIC ProcessorsNOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) has been working on the parallelization of the FV3 dynamical core toward fine-grain GPU and MIC processors. Initial work focused on modifying the code to expose more loop level parallelism needed to r...
Authors: Mark W. Govett Christopher W. Harrop Jacques Middlecoff Duane Rosenberg James Rosinski Lynd Stringer · Updated April 08, 2021
Development of a Random-Forest Cloud-Regime Classification Model Based on Surface Radiation and Cloud ProductsVarious methods have been developed to characterize cloud type, otherwise referred to as cloud regime. These include manual sky observations, combining radiative and cloud vertical properties observed from satellite, surface-based remote sensing, ...
Authors: Joseph Sedlar David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated April 08, 2021
Correspondence of water vapor image features and potential vorticity patterns from an isentropic mesoscale data assimilation system
Authors: Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated April 08, 2021
A Comparison of Temperature and Wind Measurements from ACARS-Equipped Aircraft and RawinsondesA comparison was made of temperature and wind observations reported by rawinsonde and Aircraft Communications, Addressing, and Reporting System (ACARS)-equipped commercial aircraft separated by less than 150 km in distance and 90 min in time near...
Authors: Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated April 08, 2021
A guide to forecasting snowfall accumulations in the higher terrain west of Denver with shallow upslope flow
Authors: Edward J. Szoke · Updated April 08, 2021
Atmospheric boundary layer height disambiguation using synergistic remote sensing observations: case examples from VORTEX-SESynergistic remote sensing of the atmosphere, combined with adaptive techniques, offers unprecedented opportunities to characterise the evolution of key atmospheric features such as the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL). Using long-duration, high-r...
Authors: Francesc Rocadenbosch Robin L. Tanamachi Marcos P. Araujo da Silva Joan Villalonga Stephen J. Frasier David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated February 25, 2022
Convective boundary-layer height estimation from combined radar and Doppler lidar observations in VORTEX-SEThe Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment Southeast (VORTEX-SE) provides a wealth of long-duration, high-resolution, vertically pointing observations from active and passive ground-based remote sensing systems enabling ch...
Authors: Joan Villalonga Susan L. Beveridge Marcos P. Araujo da Silva Robin L. Tanamachi Francesc Rocadenbosch David (Dave) D. Turner Stephen J. Frasier · Updated January 25, 2022
Outlook for Exploiting Artificial Intelligence in the Earth and Environmental SciencesPromising new opportunities to apply artificial intelligence (AI) to the Earth and environmental sciences are identified, informed by an overview of current efforts in the community. Community input was collected at the first National Oceanic and ...
Authors: Jebb Q. Stewart Sid-Ahmed Boukabara Vladimir Krasnopolsky Stephen G. Penny Amy McGovern David Hall John E. Ten Hoeve Jason Hickey Hung-Lung Allen. Huang John K. Williams Kayo Ide Philippe Tissot Sue Ellen Haupt Kenneth S. Casey Nikunj Oza Alan J. Geer Eric S. Maddy Ross N. Hoffman · Updated June 15, 2021
Toward Unifying Short-Term and Next-Day Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecast Systems with a Continuously Cycling 3-km Ensemble Kalman Filter over the Entire Conterminous United StatesUsing the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 80-member ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) analyses with 3-km horizontal grid spacing were produced over the entire conterminous United States (CONUS) for 4 weeks using 1-h continuous cycling. For com...
Authors: Glen S. Romine David C. Dowell Craig S. Schwartz · Updated April 06, 2021
Lidar Observations of a Mesoscale Moisture Transport Event Impacting Convection and Comparison to Rapid Refresh Model AnalysisThe 2015 Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign provided a wealth of intensive observations for improving understanding of interplay between the Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ), mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and other p...
Authors: Brian J. Carroll Belay B. Demoz David (Dave) D. Turner Ruben Delgado · Updated April 16, 2021
Sensitivity of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone to the Configuration of the Global Forecast System–Eddy Diffusivity Mass Flux Planetary Boundary Layer SchemeThe intensity and structure of simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) are known to be sensitive to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization in numerical weather prediction models. In this paper, we use an idealized version of the Hurricane W...
Authors: Evan A. Kalina Mrinal Biswas Kathryn M. Newman Jun A. Zhang · Updated April 05, 2021
CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850–2014) With GISS‐E2.1Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850–2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth Sy...
Authors: Ron L. Miller Rainer Bleck Shan Sun · Updated April 22, 2021
Improving dust simulations in WRF-Chem v4.1.3 coupled with the GOCART aerosol moduleIn this paper, we rectify inconsistencies that emerge in the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) v3.2 code when using the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) aerosol module. These inconsistencies...
Authors: Alexander Ukhov Ravan Ahmadov Georg A. Grell · Updated April 22, 2021
Ground-based temperature and humidity profiling: combining active and passive remote sensorsThermodynamic profiles in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are important observations for a range of atmospheric research and operational needs. These profiles can be retrieved from passively sensed spectral infrared (IR) or microwave (MW) radia...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner Ulrich Löhnert · Updated April 26, 2021
Large-Sample Application of Radar Reflectivity Object-Based Verification to Evaluate HRRR Warm-Season ForecastsThe Method of Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) is used to perform an object-based verification of approximately 1400 forecasts of composite reflectivity from the operational HRRR during April–September 2019. In this study, MODE is configu...
Authors: Jeffrey D. Duda David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated May 03, 2021
A Progress Report on the Development of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh EnsembleThe High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE) is a 36-member ensemble analysis system with 9 forecast members that utilizes the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) dynamic core and the physics suite fro...
Authors: Evan A. Kalina Isidora Jankov Trevor I. Alcott Joseph B. Olson Jeffrey R. Beck David C. Dowell Curtis R. Alexander · Updated May 03, 2021
Partition of Forecast Error into Positional and Structural ComponentsWeather manifests in spatiotemporally coherent structures. Weather forecasts hence are affected by both positional and structural or amplitude errors. This has been long recognized by practicing forecasters (cf., e.g., Tropical Cyclone track and i...
Authors: Isidora Jankov Scott Gregory Sai Ravela Zoltan Toth Malaquías Peña · Updated May 03, 2021
Connecting Land–Atmosphere Interactions to Surface Heterogeneity in CHEESEHEAD19The Chequamegon Heterogeneous Ecosystem Energy-Balance Study Enabled by a High-Density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 (CHEESEHEAD19) is an ongoing National Science Foundation project based on an intensive field campaign that occurred from June ...
Authors: Brian J. Butterworth David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated May 07, 2021
Inline Coupling of Simple and Complex Chemistry Modules within the Global Weather Forecast model FIM (FIM-Chem v1)The global Flow-following finite-volume Icosahedral Model (FIM), which was developed in the Global Systems Laboratory of NOAA/ESRL, has been coupled inline with aerosol and gas-phase chemistry schemes of different complexity using the chemistry an...
Authors: Li (Kate) Zhang Georg A. Grell Ravan Ahmadov · Updated January 20, 2022
Evaluation of the Rapid Refresh Numerical Weather Prediction Model over Arctic AlaskaDespite a need for accurate weather forecasts for societal and economic interests in the U.S. Arctic, thorough evaluations of operational numerical weather prediction in the region have been limited. In particular, the Rapid Refresh Model (RAP), w...
Authors: Matthew T. Bray David (Dave) D. Turner Gijs de Boer · Updated May 24, 2021
Commercial-Aircraft-Based Observations for NWP: Global Coverage, Data Impacts, and COVID-19Weather observations from commercial aircraft constitute an essential component of the global observing system and have been shown to be the most valuable observation source for short-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems over North Ame...
Authors: Eric P. James Stanley G. Benjamin Brian D. Jamison · Updated May 25, 2021
Position paper on high performance computing needs in Earth system predictionThe United States experiences some of the most severe weather on Earth. Extreme weather or climate events—such as hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, drought, and heat waves—can devastate communities and businesses, cause loss of life and property, a...
Authors: Jessie C. Carman Thomas L. Clune Francis Giraldo Mark W. Govett Brian Gross Anke Kamrath Tsengdar Lee David McCarren John Michalakes Scott Sandgathe Timothy R. Whitcomb · Updated June 23, 2021
Influence of a Portable Near-Surface Observing Network on Experimental Ensemble Forecasts of Deep Convection Hazards during VORTEX-SEEnsemble forecasts are generated with and without the assimilation of near-surface observations from a portable, mesoscale network of StickNet platforms during the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment–Southeast (VORTEX-S...
Authors: Aaron J. Hill Christopher C. Weiss David C. Dowell · Updated June 08, 2021
Time Evolution and Diurnal Variability of the Parametric Sensitivity of Turbine‐Height Winds in the MYNN‐EDMF ParameterizationThe Mellor‐Yamada‐Nakanishi‐Niino (MYNN) parameterization applied in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been augmented to include the Eddy‐Diffusion Mass‐Flux (EDMF) approach to better represent transport by boundary‐layer eddies...
Authors: Larry K. Berg Joseph B. Olson · Updated June 10, 2021
Diurnally varying background error covariances estimated in RMAPS-ST and their impacts on operational implementationsBackground error covariance (BEC) plays a key role in variational data assimilation systems. The National Meteorological Center (NMC) method has been used widely to generate forecast error samples for BEC estimation. At present, most variational-b...
Authors: Yaodeng Chen Hongli Wang · Updated June 02, 2021
How does a Pinatubo‐size Volcanic Cloud Reach the Middle Stratosphere?Volcanic explosions are the most critical replenishing mechanism of the stratospheric aerosol Junge layer. A fresh volcanic cloud comprises mostly sulfur‐bearing gases, volcanic ash, and water vapor. It is commonly assumed that only sulfate aeroso...
Authors: Georgiy Stenchikov Alexander Ukhov Sergey Osipov Ravan Ahmadov Georg A. Grell Karen Cady-Pereira Eli Mlawer Michael Iacono · Updated June 01, 2021
Scientific and human errors in a snow model intercomparisonTwenty-seven models participated in the Earth System Model - Snow Model Intercomparison Project (ESM-SnowMIP), the most data-rich MIP dedicated to snow modelling. Our findings do not support the hypothesis advanced by previous snow MIPs: evaluatin...
Authors: Cecile B. Menard Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova · Updated April 15, 2021
A fast visible-wavelength 3D radiative transfer model for numerical weather prediction visualization and forward modelingSolar radiation is the ultimate source of energy flowing through the atmosphere; it fuels all atmospheric motions. The visible-wavelength range of solar radiation represents a significant contribution to the earth's energy budget, and visible ligh...
Authors: steve C. albers Zoltan Toth Ravan Ahmadov Eric P. James · Updated May 27, 2021
Cascading Toward a Kilometer-Scale GCM: Impacts of a Scale-Aware Convection Parameterization in the Goddard Earth Observing System GCMThe National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Earth Observing System global circulation model (GCM) is evaluated through a cascade of simulations with increasing horizontal resolution. This model employs a nonhydrostatic dynamic...
Authors: Georg A. Grell Saulo R. Freitas · Updated June 10, 2021
Improvements to Lake-Effect Snow Forecasts Using a One-Way Air–Lake Model Coupling ApproachLake-effect convective snowstorms frequently produce high-impact, hazardous winter weather conditions downwind of the North American Great Lakes. During lake-effect snow events, the lake surfaces can cool rapidly, and in some cases, notable develo...
Authors: Stanley G. Benjamin Eric P. James Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Curtis R. Alexander Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome · Updated April 08, 2021
Snow cover duration trends observed at sites and predicted by multiple modelsThe 30-year simulations of seasonal snow cover in 22 physically based models driven with bias-corrected meteorological reanalyses are examined at four sites with long records of snow observations. Annual snow cover durations differ widely between ...
Authors: Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Richard Essery · Updated April 12, 2021
Characteristics of Tropopause Polar Vortices Based on Observations over the Greenland Ice SheetTropopause polar vortices (TPVs) are long-lived, coherent vortices based on the dynamic tropopause and characterized by potential vorticity anomalies. TPVs exist primarily in the Arctic with potential impacts ranging from surface cyclone generatio...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner Sarah M. Borg Steven M. Cavallo · Updated May 25, 2021
Characterizing NWP Model Errors Using Doppler-Lidar Measurements of Recurrent Regional Diurnal Flows: Marine-Air Intrusions into the Columbia River BasinMarine-Air Intrusions into the Columbia River BasinGround-based Doppler-lidar instrumentation provides atmospheric wind data at dramatically improved accuracies and spatial/temporal resolutions. These capabilities have provided new insights into atmospheric flow phenomena, but they also should hav...
Authors: robert M. banta Yelena L. Pichugina W alan. brewer Aditya Choukulkar Kathleen O. Lantz Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon Harindra J S Fernando Raghu Krishnamurthy Mark T. Stoelinga Justin Sharp Lisa S. Darby David (Dave) D. Turner Scott P. Sandberg Sunil Baidar · Updated May 27, 2021
Evaluation of the Grell–Freitas Convective Scheme in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) ModelThe Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) tested two convective parameterization schemes in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model and compared them in terms of performance of forecasting tropical cyclones (TCs). Several TC forec...
Authors: Mrinal Biswas Jun A. Zhang Evelyn D. Grell Evan A. Kalina Kathryn M. Newman Ligia R. Bernardet Laurie Carson James T. Frimel Georg A. Grell · Updated May 27, 2021
Impact of the Hydrometeor Vertical Advection Method on HWRF’s Simulated Hurricane StructureThe impact of different hydrometeor advection schemes on TC structure and intensity forecasts is examined through the evaluation of HWRF’s simulation of tropical cyclones using the operational Ferrier–Aligo (FA) microphysics that uses total conden...
Authors: Shaowu Bao Ligia R. Bernardet Greg Thompson Evan A. Kalina Kathryn M. Newman Mrinal Biswas · Updated May 27, 2021
Surface-Based Microwave Humidity Retrievals over the Equatorial Indian Ocean: Applications and ChallengesThe interactions between equatorial convection and humidity as a function of height, at a range of time scales, remain an important research frontier. The ability of surface-based microwave radiometry to contribute to such research is assessed usi...
Authors: Jianhao Zhang David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated June 11, 2021
Combined impacts of nitrous acid and nitryl chloride on lower-tropospheric ozone: new module development in WRF-Chem and application to ChinaNitrous acid (HONO) and nitryl chloride (ClNO2) – through their photolysis – can have profound effects on the nitrogen cycle and oxidation capacity of the lower troposphere. Previous numerical studies have separately considered and investigated th...
Authors: Ravan Ahmadov Li (Kate) Zhang · Updated September 30, 2021
Using Adjoint-Based Forecast Sensitivity Method to Evaluate TAMDAR Data Impacts on Regional ForecastsThis study evaluates the impact of Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) observations on regional 24-hour forecast error reduction over the Continental United States (CONUS) domain using adjoint-based forecast sensitivity to...
Authors: Xiaoyan Zhang Hongli Wang · Updated June 11, 2021
A Regional GSI-Based Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation System for the Rapid Refresh Configuration: Testing at Reduced ResolutionA regional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) system is established for potential Rapid Refresh (RAP) operational application. The system borrows data processing and observation operators from the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI), and precalcu...
Authors: Kefeng Zhu Stanley G. Benjamin Stephen S. Weygandt Ming Hu · Updated June 11, 2021
A scale and aerosol aware stochastic convective parameterization for weather and air quality modelingA convective parameterization is described and evaluated that may be used in high resolution non-hydrostatic mesoscale models as well as in modeling system with unstructured varying grid resolutions and for convection aware simulations. This schem...
Authors: Georg A. Grell Saulo R. Freitas · Updated June 11, 2021
A scale-dependent blending scheme for WRFDA: impact on regional weather forecastingDue to limitation of the domain size and limited observations used in regional data assimilation and forecasting systems, regional forecasts suffer a general deficiency in effectively representing large-scale features such as those in global analy...
Authors: Hongli Wang · Updated June 11, 2021
A case study of aerosol data assimilation with the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model over the contiguous United States using 3D-Var and optimal interpolation methodsThis study applies the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) 3D-Var assimilation tool originally developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to improve surface PM2.5 predictions over the contiguous United States (CON...
Authors: Youhua Tang Mariusz Pagowski · Updated September 30, 2021
A Comparison of Near-Surface Buoyancy and Baroclinity across Three VORTEX2 Supercell InterceptsObservations obtained during the second Verification of the Origin of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) are analyzed for three supercell intercepts. These intercepts used a fleet of deployable “StickNet” probes, complemented by mobile rad...
Authors: Christopher C. Weiss David C. Dowell · Updated June 11, 2021
A Composite Perspective on Bore Passages during the PECAN CampaignAtmospheric bores have been shown to have a role in the initiation and maintenance of elevated convection. Previous observational studies of bores have been case studies of more notable events. However, this creates a selection bias towards extrao...
Authors: David M. Loveless David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated June 11, 2021
A decision tree algorithm for investigation of model biases related to dynamical cores and physical parameterizationsAn object-based evaluation method using a pattern recognition algorithm (i.e., classification trees) is applied to the simulated orographic precipitation for idealized experimental setups using the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Co...
Authors: M. Soner Yorgun · Updated June 11, 2021
A Demonstration of Modern Geostationaryand Polar-Orbiting Satellite Products for theIdentification and Tracking of Elevated Mixed LayersThe elevated mixed layer (EML) can be an important aspect for severe thunderstorm forecasting. Because its thermodynamic characteristics vary as it moves eastward, tracking the EML is a crucial part of the forecasting process, something that previ...
Authors: Christopher M. Gitro Edward J. Szoke · Updated June 11, 2021
A Features-Based Assessment of the Evolution of Warm Season Precipitation Forecasts from the HRRR Model over Three Years of DevelopmentThe High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model has been the National Weather Service’s (NWS) operational rapid update model since 2014. The HRRR has undergone continual development, including updates to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) M...
Authors: Janice L. Bytheway Curtis R. Alexander · Updated September 16, 2021
A GSI-Based Coupled EnSRF–En3DVar Hybrid Data Assimilation System for the Operational Rapid Refresh Model: Tests at a Reduced ResolutionA coupled ensemble square root filter–three-dimensional ensemble-variational hybrid (EnSRF–En3DVar) data assimilation (DA) system is developed for the operational Rapid Refresh (RAP) forecasting system. The En3DVar hybrid system employs the extend...
Authors: Yujie Pan Stanley G. Benjamin Stephen S. Weygandt Ming Hu · Updated June 11, 2021
A Hazard Multiple: Overlapping Tornado and Flash Flood Warnings in a National Weather Service Forecast Office in the Southeastern United StatesThe U.S. weather warning system is designed to help operational forecasters identify and issue alerts for hazards that assist people in taking life-saving actions. Assessing risks for individual hazards, such as flash flooding, can be challenging ...
Authors: Jennifer Henderson · Updated June 11, 2021
The Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA)To explore the various couplings across space, time and between ecosystems in a consistent manner, atmospheric modeling is moving away from the fractured limited-scale modeling strategy of the past towards a unification of the range of scales inhe...
Authors: Gabriele G. Pfister Georg A. Grell · Updated July 14, 2021
A Multi-Time-Scale Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Scheme and its Application to Simulated Radial Velocity and Reflectivity DataIn this study, a multi-time-scale four-dimensional variational data assimilation (MTS-4DVar) scheme is developed and applied to the assimilation of radar observations. The MTS-4DVar employs multi-time windows with various time-lengths in the frame...
Authors: Tao Sun Hongli Wang · Updated June 11, 2021
Year-Long Vertical Velocity Statistics Derived From Doppler Lidar Data for the Continental Convective Boundary LayerOne year of Coherent Doppler Lidar (CDL) data collected at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site in Oklahoma was analyzed to provide profiles of vertical velocity variance, skewness, and kurtosis for cases of...
Authors: Larry K. Berg David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated June 11, 2021
WRF-Chem model sensitivity to chemical mechanisms choice in reconstructing aerosol optical propertiesIn the framework of the AQMEII initiative WRF-Chem has been applied over Europe adopting two chemical configurations for the calendar year 2010. The first one employed the RADM2 gas-phase chemistry and MADE/SORGAM aerosol module, while the second ...
Authors: Alessandra Balzarini Georg A. Grell · Updated June 11, 2021
Wide-Area Planning of Electric Infrastructure: Assessing Investment Options for Low-Carbon FuturesElectric infrastructure worldwide has evolved significantly over the last decade, as nations increase the renewable share of their generation portfolio and build transmission to move energy from the resources to the load centers. Since 2007, the U...
Authors: James McCalley Melinda C. Marquis · Updated June 11, 2021
Stratiform Cloud-Hydrometeor Assimilation for HRRR and RAP Model Short-Range Weather PredictionAccurate cloud and precipitation forecasts are a fundamental component of short-range data assimilation/model prediction systems such as the NOAA 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) or the 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP). To reduce cloud and preci...
Authors: Stanley G. Benjamin Eric P. James Ming Hu Curtis R. Alexander Therese (Terra) T. Ladwig John M. Brown Stephen S. Weygandt David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 02, 2021
On the Prospects for Improved Tropical Cyclone Track ForecastsThe success story of Numerical Weather Prediction is often illustrated with the dramatic decrease of errors in tropical cyclone track forecasts over the past decades. In a recent essay, Landsea and Cangialosi (2018), however, note a diminishing tr...
Authors: Feifan Zhou Zoltan Toth · Updated June 14, 2021
Systematic Evaluation of the Impact of Assimilating a Network of Ground-Based Remote Sensing Profilers for Forecasts of Nocturnal Convection Initiation during PECANNocturnal convection is often initiated by mechanisms that cannot be easily observed within the large gaps between rawinsondes or by conventional surface networks. To improve forecasts of such events, we evaluate the systematic impact of assimilat...
Authors: Samuel K. Degelia David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated June 14, 2021
Ceilometer-Based Rain-Rate Estimation: A Case-Study Comparison With S-Band Radar and Disdrometer Retrievals in the Context of VORTEX-SEAttenuated backscatter measurements from a Vaisala CL31 ceilometer and a modified form of the well-known slope method are used to derive the ceilometer extinction profiles during rain events, restricted to rainfall rates (RRs) below approximately ...
Authors: Francesc Rocadenbosch David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated June 14, 2021
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclone Detection Using Deep LearningExtracting valuable information from large sets of diverse meteorological data is a time-intensive process. Machine-learning methods can help to improve both speed and accuracy of this process. Specifically, deep-learning image-segmentation models...
Authors: Christina E. Kumler Jebb Q. Stewart Mark W. Govett David Hall · Updated June 14, 2021
What Does a Convection-Allowing Ensemble of Opportunity Buy Us in Forecasting Thunderstorms?The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast v2.1 (HREFv2.1), an operational convection-allowing model (CAM) ensemble, is an “ensemble of opportunity” wherein forecasts from several independently designed deterministic CAMs are aggregated and postprocess...
Authors: Brett Roberts David C. Dowell · Updated June 14, 2021
The Grell–Freitas (GF) convection parameterization: recent developments, extensions, and applicationsRecent developments and options in the GF (Grell and Freitas, 2014; Freitas et al., 2018) convection parameterization are presented. The parameterization has been expanded to a trimodal spectral size to simulate three convection modes: shallow, co...
Authors: Saulo R. Freitas Georg A. Grell Haiqin Li · Updated September 02, 2021
Improved Prediction of Cold-Air Pools in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Using a Truly Horizontal Diffusion Scheme for Potential TemperatureThe terrain-following vertical coordinate system used by many atmospheric models, including the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, is prone to errors in regions of complex terrain. These errors stem, in part, from the calculation of hor...
Authors: Robert S. Arthur Katherine A. Lundquist Joseph B. Olson · Updated April 14, 2021
NOAA ’s SENSING HAZARDS WITH OPERATIONAL UNMANNED TECHNOLOGY (SHOUT) EXPERIMENT: Observations and Forecast ImpactsField operations and data impact studies examine how observations from high-altitude unmanned aircraft can improve forecasts of tropical cyclones and other high-impact weather events. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA)...
Authors: Gary A. Wick Jason M. English Tanya R. Peevey Hongli Wang · Updated August 03, 2021
An Analysis of Alternatives for the COSMIC-2 Constellation in the Context of Global Observing System Simulation ExperimentsObserving System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) were conducted to evaluate the potential impact of the six Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) receiver satellites in equatorial orbit from the initially proposed Constel...
Authors: Lidia Cucurull Michael J. Mueller · Updated June 22, 2021
Eye of the Storm: Observing Hurricanes with a Small Unmanned Aircraft SystemUnique near-surface observations were collected in hurricanes using a small unmanned aircraft system deployed from NOAA’s hurricane hunter aircraft. Unique data from seven flights of the Coyote small Unmanned Aircraft System (sUAS) were collect...
Authors: Joseph J. Cione Evan A. Kalina · Updated June 22, 2021
Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal PredictionClimate prediction on subseasonal to decadal time scales is a rapidly advancing field that is synthesizing improvements in climate process understanding and modeling to improve and expand operational services worldwide. Weather and climate vari...
Authors: William J. Merryfield Benjamin W. Green · Updated June 22, 2021
A Description of the MYNN Surface-Layer SchemeThe surface-layer scheme controls the degree of coupling between the model surface and the atmosphere. Traditionally, surface-layer schemes have been developed to be paired with certain planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, bu...
Authors: Joseph B. Olson Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Jaymes S. Kenyon David (Dave) D. Turner John M. Brown Weizhong Zheng Benjamin W. Green · Updated June 23, 2021
Recommendations for Developing Useful and Usable Convection-Allowing Model Ensemble Information for NWS ForecastersU.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters assess and communicate hazardous weather risks, including the likelihood of a threat and its impacts. Convection-allowing model (CAM) ensembles offer potential to aid forecasting by depicting atmosph...
Authors: Julie DeMuth Isidora Jankov Trevor I. Alcott Curtis R. Alexander Daniel Nietfeld Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated July 14, 2021
A New Measure of Ensemble Central TendencyEnsemble prediction is a widely used tool in weather forecasting. In particular, the arithmetic mean (AM) of ensemble members is used to filter out unpredictable features from a forecast. AM is a pointwise statistical concept, providing the best s...
Authors: Jie Feng Zoltan Toth · Updated July 15, 2021
Partition of analysis and forecast error variance into growing and decaying componentsDue to the scarcity of and errors in observations, direct measurements of errors in numerical weather prediction (NWP) analyses and forecasts with respect to nature (i.e. “true” error) are lacking. Peña and Toth (2014) introduced an inverse method...
Authors: Jie Feng Zoltan Toth · Updated July 15, 2021
The impacts of transported wildfire smoke aerosols on surface air quality in New York State: A case study in summer 2018Wildfire smoke aerosols, once emitted, can transport over long distances and affect surface air quality in downwind regions. In New York State (NYS), fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration continues to decrease due to anthropogenic emission...
Authors: Wei-Ting Hung Ravan Ahmadov Eric P. James · Updated July 16, 2021
The Motion of Mesoscale Snowbands in Northeast U.S. Winter StormsThe spatial distribution of snowfall accumulation accompanying winter storms is a product of both snowfall rate and duration. Winter storms are commonly associated with mesoscale snowbands that can strongly modulate snowfall accumulation. Although...
Authors: Jaymes S. Kenyon · Updated July 16, 2021
Addressing the sensitivity of forecast impact to flight path design for targeted observations of extratropical winter storms: A demonstration in an OSSE frameworkFew studies have examined the forecast uncertainties brought about from varying aircraft flight track patterns in targeted observations for extratropical winter storms. To examine the degree of uncertainty in downstream forecasts caused by differe...
Authors: Andrew C. Kren Hongli Wang · Updated July 16, 2021
Vortex Initialization in the NCEP Operational Hurricane ModelsThis paper describes the vortex initialization (VI) currently used in NCEP operational hurricane models (HWRF and HMON, and possibly HAFS in the future). The VI corrects the background fields for hurricane models: it consists of vortex relocation,...
Authors: Qingfu Liu Samuel Trahan Ligia R. Bernardet · Updated July 16, 2021
Optimal Estimation Retrievals and Their Uncertainties: What Every Atmospheric Scientist Should KnowRemote sensing instruments are heavily used to provide observations for both the operational and research communities. These sensors do not provide direct observations of the desired atmospheric variables, but instead, retrieval algorithms are nec...
Authors: Maximilian Maahn David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated July 16, 2021
Rapid-Scan and Polarimetric Radar Observations of the Dissipation of a Violent Tornado on 9 May 2016 near Sulphur, OklahomaRapid-scan polarimetric data analysis of the dissipation of a likely violent supercell tornado that struck near Sulphur, Oklahoma, on 9 May 2016 is presented. The Rapid X-band Polarimetric Radar was used to obtain data of the tornado at the end of...
Authors: Katherine E. McKeown Darrel M. Kingfield · Updated July 16, 2021
Impact of Refractivity Profiles from a Proposed GNSS-RO Constellation on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in a Global Modeling SystemA global Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) was used to assess the potential impact of a proposed Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) constellation on tropical cyclone (TC) track, maximum 10-m wind speed (Vm...
Authors: Michael J. Mueller Tanya R. Peevey · Updated July 16, 2021
Evaluation of a Compact Broadband Differential Absorption Lidar for Routine Water Vapor Profiling in the Atmospheric Boundary layerThe performance of a novel water vapor broadband differential absorption lidar (BB-DIAL) is evaluated. This compact, eye-safe, diode-laser-based prototype was developed by Vaisala. It was designed to operate unattended in all weather conditions, a...
Authors: Rob K. Newsom David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated July 16, 2021
Evaluating the WFIP2 updates to the HRRR model using scanning Doppler lidar measurements in the complex terrain of the Columbia River BasinThe wind-energy (WE) industry relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models as foundational or base models for many purposes, including wind-resource assessment and wind-power forecasting. During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement...
Authors: Yelena L. Pichugina robert M. banta W alan. brewer Laura Bianco Caroline Draxl Jaymes S. Kenyon Julie K. Lundquist Joseph B. Olson David (Dave) D. Turner Sonia Wharton James M. wilczak Sunil Baidar Larry K. Berg Harindra J S Fernando Brandi J. McCarty Raj K. Rai Billy Roberts Justin Sharp William J. Shaw Mark T. Stoelinga Rochelle Worsnop · Updated May 03, 2021
A Verification Approach Used in Developing the Rapid Refresh and Other Numerical Weather Prediction ModelsDeveloping and improving numerical weather prediction models such as the Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) requires a well-designed, easy-to-use evaluation capability using observations. Owing to the very complex nonline...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner Jeffrey Hamilton William R. Moninger Molly B. Smith Bonny Strong Randy Pierce Venita Hagerty Kirk L. Holub Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated July 16, 2021
COnstraining ORographic Drag Effects (COORDE): a model comparison of resolved and parametrized orographic dragThe parametrization of orographic drag processes is a major source of circulation uncertainty in models. The COnstraining ORographic Drag Effects (COORDE) project makes a coordinated effort to narrow this uncertainty by bringing together the model...
Authors: Annelize van Niekerk Michael D. Toy · Updated July 16, 2021
The Lightning and Dual-Polarization Radar Characteristics of Three Hail-Accumulating ThunderstormsThunderstorms that produce hail accumulations at the surface can impact residents by obstructing roadways, closing airports, and causing localized flooding from hail-clogged drainages. These storms have recently gained an increased interest within...
Authors: Robinson Wallace Evan A. Kalina · Updated July 16, 2021
Effect of Logarithmically Transformed IMERG Precipitation Observations in WRF 4D-Var Data Assimilation SystemPrecipitation estimates from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are uncertain. The uncertainties can be reduced by integrating precipitation observations into NWP models. This study assimilates Version 04 Integrated Multi-satellite Retrieva...
Authors: Jiaying Zhang Liao-Fan Lin · Updated July 16, 2021
Observational case study of a persistent cold pool and gap flow in the Columbia River BasinPersistent cold pools form as layers of cold stagnant air within topographical depressions mainly during wintertime when the near-surface air cools and/or the air aloft warms and daytime surface heating is insufficient to mix out the stable layer....
Authors: Bianca Adler David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated November 17, 2021
Interpretable tropical cyclone intensity estimation using Dvorak-inspired machine learning techniquesThe intensity of a tropical cyclone is correlated strongly to the damage it causes when it makes landfall. Most of the time, tropical cyclones are located over the open ocean, where direct intensity measurements are difficult to obtain. An alterna...
Authors: Yu-Ju Lee David Hall Quan Liu Wen-Wei (Tony) Liao Ming-Chun Huang · Updated July 21, 2021
Observed Bulk Hook Echo Drop Size Distribution Evolution in Supercell Tornadogenesis and Tornadogenesis FailureThe time preceding supercell tornadogenesis and tornadogenesis “failure” has been studied extensively to identify differing attributes related to tornado production or lack thereof. Studies from the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Torna...
Authors: Kristofer S. Tuftedal Darrel M. Kingfield · Updated July 26, 2021
Coupling computational fluid dynamics with the high resolution rapid refresh model for forecasting dynamic line ratingsThis study looks at forecasted dynamic line ratings in southern Idaho by using data from the high resolution rapid-refresh (HRRR) model for forecasted weather conditions. The HRRR model can provide accurate 18-h forecasts with a 15-min temporal re...
Authors: Alexander W. Abboud Kenneth R. Fenton Melissa A. Petty Matthew S. Wandishin · Updated July 27, 2021
Measuring the impact of additional instrumentation on the skill of numerical weather prediction models at forecasting wind ramp events during the first Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)The first Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) was a DOE and NOAA?funded 2?year?long observational, data assimilation, and modeling study with a 1?year?long field campaign aimed at demonstrating improvements in the accuracy of wind forecasts g...
Authors: Elena Akish Joseph B. Olson · Updated July 27, 2021
Sensitivity of Turbine-Height Wind Speeds to Parameters in the Planetary Boundary-Layer Parametrization Used in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Extension to Wintertime ConditionsWe extend the model sensitivity analysis of Yang et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 162: 117–142, 2017) to include results for February 2011, in addition to May of the same year. We investigate the sensitivity of simulated hub-height wind speeds to t...
Authors: Larry K. Berg Joseph B. Olson · Updated July 27, 2021
Evaluation of a Land–Atmosphere Coupling Metric Computed from a Ground-Based Infrared InterferometerLand–atmosphere feedbacks are a critical component of the hydrologic cycle. Vertical profiles of boundary layer temperature and moisture, together with information about the land surface, are used to compute land–atmosphere coupling metrics. Groun...
Authors: Ryann A. Wakefield David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 02, 2021
Single-column validation of a snow subgrid parameterization in the Rapid Update Cycle Land-Surface Model (RUC LSM)Subgrid variability of snow is important in studying surface-atmosphere interactions as it affects grid-scale processes. However, this dynamic variability is currently not well-represented in most land-surface models (LSMs). A stochastic snow mode...
Authors: Siwei He Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated August 23, 2022
Evaluation and Applications of Multi-Instrument Boundary-Layer Thermodynamic RetrievalsRecent reports have highlighted the need for improved observations of the atmosphere boundary layer. In this study, we explore the combination of ground-based active and passive remote sensors deployed for thermodynamic profiling to analyze variou...
Authors: Elizabeth N. Smith David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 25, 2021
Impact of model improvements on 80 m wind speeds during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2)During the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2; Oct 2015–Mar 2017, Columbia River Gorge and Basin area) several improvements to the parameterizations applied in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR – 3?km horizontal grid spacing) an...
Authors: Laura Bianco Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 10, 2021
An Analysis of the Processes Affecting Rapid Near-Surface Water Vapor Increases during the Afternoon to Evening Transition in OklahomaThis study used 20 years of Oklahoma Mesonet data to investigate the changes of near surface water vapor mixing ratio (qv) during the afternoon to evening transition (AET). Similar to past studies, increases in qv are found to occur near sunset. H...
Authors: W. Greg. Blumberg David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 10, 2021
Leveraging Modern Artificial Intelligence for Remote Sensing and NWP: Benefits and ChallengesArtificial Intelligence (AI) techniques have had significant recent successes in multiple fields. These fields and the fields of satellite remote sensing and NWP share the same fundamental underlying needs, including signal and image processing; q...
Authors: Sid-Ahmed Boukabara Jebb Q. Stewart · Updated August 11, 2021
Impacts of Targeted AERI and Doppler Lidar Wind Retrievals on Short-Term Forecasts of the Initiation and Early Evolution of ThunderstormsThe ability of Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) and Doppler lidar (DL) wind profile observations to impact short-term forecasts of convection is explored by assimilating retrievals into a partially cycled convection-allowing ense...
Authors: Michael C. Coniglio David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 11, 2021
The Perdigão: Peering into Microscale Details of Mountain WindsA grand challenge from the wind energy industry is to provide reliable forecasts on mountain winds several hours in advance at microscale (∼100 m) resolution. This requires better microscale wind-energy physics included in forecasting tools, for w...
Authors: Harindra J S Fernando David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 11, 2021
CHAT – the Colorado Hail Accumulation from Thunderstorms projectThe CHAT project aims to collect hail accumulation reports and study the behavior of hail-producing thunderstorms with dual-polarization weather radars and a lightning mapping array. In recent years, hail accumulations from thunderstorms have o...
Authors: Katja Friedrich Evan A. Kalina Thomas W. Schlatter · Updated August 11, 2021
Initial Development and Testing of a Convection-Allowing Model ScorecardEvaluation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) is critical for both forecasters and researchers. Through such evaluation, forecasters can understand the strengths and weaknesses of NWP guidance, and researchers can work to improve NWP models. Ho...
Authors: Burkely T. Gallo Curtis R. Alexander · Updated August 11, 2021
Bore-ing into Nocturnal ConvectionThere has been a recent wave of attention given to atmospheric bores in order to understand how they evolve and initiate and maintain convection during the night. This surge is attributable to data collected during the 2015 Plains Elevated Convect...
Authors: Kevin R. Haghi David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 11, 2021
A Scale-Aware Parameterization for Estimating Subgrid Variability of Downward Solar Radiation Using High-Resolution Digital Elevation Model DataSubgrid variability of solar downward radiation at the surface can be important in estimating subgrid variability of other radiation-driven variables, such as snowmelt and soil temperature. However, this information is ignored in current hydrologi...
Authors: Siwei He Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated August 11, 2021
The effects of simulating volcanic aerosol radiative feedbacks with WRF-Chem during the Eyjafjallajökull eruption, April and May 2010Explosive volcanic eruptions can inject large amounts of ash and gases into the atmosphere. Such volcanic aerosols can have a significant impact on the surrounding environment, and there is the need to closely investigate their effects on meteorol...
Authors: Marcus Hirtl Georg A. Grell · Updated August 11, 2021
Impact of Ground-based Remote Sensing Boundary Layer Observations on Short-term Probabilistic Forecasts of a Tornadic Supercell EventDue to lack of high spatial and temporal resolution boundary layer (BL) observations, the rapid changes in near storm environment are not well represented in current convective-scale numerical models. Better representation of the near storm enviro...
Authors: Junjun Hu David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 11, 2021
Stochastically Perturbed Parameterizations in a HRRR-Based EnsembleA stochastically perturbed parameterization (SPP) approach that spatially and temporally perturbs parameters and variables in the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino planetary boundary layer scheme (PBL) and introduces initialization perturbations to so...
Authors: Isidora Jankov Jeffrey R. Beck Joseph B. Olson Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Curtis R. Alexander · Updated August 11, 2021
Forecasting High-Impact Weather in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Using a Warn-on-Forecast SystemLandfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the greatest natural threats to life and property in the United States, since they can produce multiple hazards associated with convective storms over a wide region. Of these hazards, tornadoes within ...
Authors: Thomas Jones David C. Dowell · Updated August 11, 2021
Improvement of Mountain Wave Turbulence Forecast in the NOAA’s Rapid Refresh (RAP) Model with Hybrid Vertical Coordinate SystemSpurious mountain-wave features have been reported as false alarms of light-or-stronger numerical weather prediction (NWP)-based cruise level turbulence forecasts especially over the western mountainous region of North America. To reduce this prob...
Authors: Jung-Hoon Kim Stanley G. Benjamin John M. Brown · Updated August 11, 2021
Self-Correction of Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) Soil Moisture Dry BiasSatellites produce global monitoring data, while field measurements are made at a local station over the land. Due to difference in scale, it has been a challenge how to define and correct the satellite retrieval biases. Although the relative appr...
Authors: Ju Hyoung. Lee Zoltan Toth · Updated August 11, 2021
Evaluation of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model Using Near-Surface Meteorological and Flux Observations from Northern AlabamaThe High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model became operational at the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in 2014 but the HRRR’s performance over certain regions of the coterminous US has not been well studied. In the present st...
Authors: Temple R. Lee David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 11, 2021
Observations of Near-Surface Vertical Wind Profiles and Vertical Momentum Fluxes from VORTEX-SE 2017: Comparisons to Monin–Obukhov Similarity TheoryObservations of near-surface vertical wind profiles and vertical momentum fluxes obtained from a Doppler lidar and instrumented towers deployed during VORTEX-SE in the spring of 2017 are analyzed. In particular, departures from the predictions of ...
Authors: Paul M. Markowski David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 11, 2021
Analysis of Water Vapor Absorption in the Far-Infrared and Submillimeter Regions Using Surface Radiometric Measurements From Extremely Dry LocationsThe second Radiative Heating in Underexplored Bands Campaign (RHUBC-II) was conducted in 2009 by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program to improve water vapor spectroscopy in the far-infrared spectral region. RHUBC...
Authors: Eli Mlawer David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 11, 2021
Validating the Water Vapor Variance Similarity Relationship in the Interfacial Layer Using Observations and Large?eddy SimulationsIn previous work, the similarity relationship for the water vapor variance in the interfacial layer (IL) at the top of the convective boundary layer (CBL) was proposed to be proportional to the convective velocity scale, and the gradients of the w...
Authors: Mohammed K. Osman David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 12, 2021
The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multimodel Subseasonal Prediction ExperimentThe Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a multimodel subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced 17 years of retrospective (re)forecast...
Authors: Kathy Pegion Shan Sun Stanley G. Benjamin Benjamin W. Green Rainer Bleck · Updated August 12, 2021
Spatial Variability of Winds and HRRR-NCEP Model Error Statistics at Three Doppler-Lidar Sites in the Wind-Energy Generation Region of the Columbia River BasinAnnually and seasonally averaged wind profiles from three Doppler lidars were obtained from sites in the Columbia River Basin of east-central Oregon and Washington, a major region of wind-energy production, for the WFIP2 experiment. The profile da...
Authors: Yelena L. Pichugina Jaymes S. Kenyon Melinda C. Marquis Joseph B. Olson · Updated August 12, 2021
Systematic Comparison of Convection-Allowing Models during the 2017 NOAA HWT Spring Forecasting ExperimentThe 2016–2018 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFE) featured the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE), a coordinated convection-allowing model (CAM) ensemble framework designed to provide empirical guidan...
Authors: Corey K. Potvin David C. Dowell · Updated August 12, 2021
Helicity Dynamics, Inverse, and Bidirectional Cascades in Fluid and Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence: A Brief ReviewWe briefly review helicity dynamics, inverse and bidirectional cascades in fluid and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence, with an emphasis on the latter. The energy of a turbulent system, an invariant in the nondissipative case, is transferred to...
Authors: Annick Pouquet Duane Rosenberg · Updated August 12, 2021
Incorporation of the Rotor-Equivalent Wind Speed into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model’s Wind Farm ParameterizationWind power installations have been increasing in recent years. Because wind turbines can influence local wind speeds, temperatures and surface fluxes, weather forecasting models should consider their effects. Wind farm parameterizations do current...
Authors: Stephanie Redfern Joseph B. Olson · Updated August 12, 2021
Toward a Better Regional Ozone Forecast Over CONUS Using Rapid Data Assimilation of Clouds and Meteorology in WRF-ChemAccuracy of cloud predictions in numerical weather models can considerably impact ozone (O3) forecast skill. This study assesses the benefits in surface O3 predictions of using the Rapid Refresh (RAP) forecasting system that assimilates clouds as ...
Authors: Young-Hee Ryu Ming Hu · Updated August 12, 2021
The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): General OverviewIn 2015 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiated a 4-yr study, the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2), to improve the representation of boundary layer physics and related processes in mesoscale models for better treatment of sca...
Authors: William J. Shaw Melinda C. Marquis Joseph B. Olson · Updated August 12, 2021
Progress toward Characterization of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer over Northern Alabama Using Observations by a Vertically Pointing, S-Band Profiling Radar during VORTEX-SoutheastDuring spring 2016 and spring 2017, a vertically pointing, S-band Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave radar (UMass FMCW) was deployed in northern Alabama under the auspices of the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VO...
Authors: Robin L. Tanamachi David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 12, 2021
Improvements to the AERIoe Thermodynamic Profile Retrieval AlgorithmTemperature and humidity profiles in the atmospheric boundary layer (i.e., from the surface to 3 km) can be retrieved from ground-based spectral infrared observations made by the atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) at high temporal ...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 12, 2021
Grand challenges in the science of wind energyHarvested by advanced technical systems honed over decades of research and development, wind energy has become a mainstream energy resource. However, continued innovation is needed to realize the potential of wind to serve the global demand for cl...
Authors: Paul Veers Melinda C. Marquis · Updated August 12, 2021
A New Generation of Ground-Based Mobile Platforms for Active and Passive Profiling of the Boundary LayerMobile systems equipped with remote sensing instruments capable of simultaneous profiling of temperature, moisture, and wind at high temporal resolutions can offer insights into atmospheric phenomena that the operational network cannot. Two recent...
Authors: Timothy J. Wagner David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 13, 2021
Using Operational Radar to Identify Deep Hail Accumulations from ThunderstormsThunderstorms that produce surface hail accumulations, sometimes as large as 60 cm in depth, have significantly affected the residents of the Front Range and High Plains of Colorado and Wyoming by creating hazardous road conditions and endangering...
Authors: Robinson Wallace Evan A. Kalina · Updated August 13, 2021
The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): Observational Field CampaignThe Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)- and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-funded program, with private-sector and university partners, which aims to improve the accuracy o...
Authors: James M. wilczak Melinda C. Marquis Joseph B. Olson · Updated August 13, 2021
Data assimilation impact of in situ and remote sensing meteorological observations on wind power forecasts during the first Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)During the first Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP), new meteorological observations were collected from a large suite of instruments, including wind velocities measured on networks of tall towers provided by wind industry partners, wind spe...
Authors: James M. wilczak Joseph B. Olson · Updated August 13, 2021
The Impact of Satellite Radiance Data Assimilation within a Frequently Updated Regional Forecast System Using a GSI-based Ensemble Kalman FilterA regional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation (DA) and forecast system was recently established based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system. The EnKF DA system was tested with continuous three-hourly updated...
Authors: Kefeng Zhu Ming Hu Stanley G. Benjamin Stephen S. Weygandt Haidao Lin · Updated August 13, 2021
Shallow Cumulus in WRF Parameterizations Evaluated against LASSO Large-Eddy SimulationsRepresentation of shallow cumulus is a challenge for mesoscale numerical weather prediction models. These cloud fields have important effects on temperature, solar irradiance, convective initiation, and pollutant transport, among other processes. ...
Authors: Wayne M. Angevine Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 16, 2021
Sources and characteristics of summertime organic aerosol in the Colorado Front Range: perspective from measurements and WRF-Chem modelingThe evolution of organic aerosols (OAs) and their precursors in the boundary layer (BL) of the Colorado Front Range during the Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Éxperiment (FRAPPÉ, July–August 2014) was analyzed by in situ measurements ...
Authors: Roya Bahreini Ravan Ahmadov · Updated August 16, 2021
Evaluating and Improving NWP Forecast Models for the Future: How the Needs of Offshore Wind Energy Can Point the WayTo advance the understanding of meteorological processes in offshore coastal regions, the spatial variability of wind profiles must be characterized and uncertainties (errors) in NWP model wind forecasts quantified. These gaps are especially criti...
Authors: robert M. banta Eric P. James Joseph B. Olson Stanley G. Benjamin Melinda C. Marquis · Updated August 16, 2021
An Adaptive Approach for the Calculation of Ensemble Gridpoint ProbabilitiesTraditional ensemble probabilities are computed based on the number of members that exceed a threshold at a given point divided by the total number of members. This approach has been employed for many years in coarse-resolution models. However, co...
Authors: Benjamin T. Blake Trevor I. Alcott Isidora Jankov · Updated August 16, 2021
Community Global Observing System Simulation Experiment ( osse ) Package ( cgop ): Perfect Observations Simulation ValidationThe simulation of observations—a critical Community Global Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) Package (CGOP) component—is validated first by a comparison of error-free simulated observations for the first 24 h at the start of the nature...
Authors: Sid-Ahmed Boukabara Ruifang Li · Updated August 16, 2021
The Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) in the 2016 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting ExperimentOne primary goal of annual Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFEs), which are coorganized by NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory and Storm Prediction Center and conducted in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Hazardous...
Authors: Adam J. Clark Curtis R. Alexander · Updated August 16, 2021
An Observing System Simulation Experiment with a Constellation of Radio Occultation SatellitesExperiments with a global Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) system based on the recent 7-km resolution NASA nature run known as the G5NR were conducted to determine the potential value of proposed Global Navigation Satellite System (GN...
Authors: Lidia Cucurull Ruifang Li Michael J. Mueller · Updated August 24, 2021
Advancing Science and Services during the 2015/16 El Niño: The NOAA El Niño Rapid Response Field CampaignForecasts by mid-2015 for a strong El Niño during winter 2015/16 presented an exceptional scientific opportunity to accelerate advances in understanding and predictions of an extreme climate event and its impacts while the event was ongoing. Seizi...
Authors: Randall M. Dole John M. Brown · Updated August 24, 2021
The Occurrence and Properties of Long-Lived Liquid-Bearing Clouds over the Greenland Ice Sheet and Their Relationship to the North Atlantic OscillationStratiform liquid-bearing clouds (LBCs), defined herein as either pure liquid or mixed-phase clouds, have a large impact on the surface radiation budget across the Arctic. LBCs lasting at least 6 h are observed at Summit, Greenland, year-round wit...
Authors: Jonathan Edwards-Opperman David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 24, 2021
Building the Next Generation of Climate Modelers: Scale-Aware Physics Parameterization and the “Grey Zone” ChallengeClimate system models have typically been restricted to grid resolutions from a few hundred kilometers down to a few tens of kilometers owing to computational constraints, and a representation of subgrid physical processes by parameterization is r...
Authors: Ariane Frassoni Georg A. Grell · Updated August 26, 2021
Observationally derived rise in methane surface forcing mediated by water vapour trendsAtmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratios exhibited a plateau between 1995 and 2006 and have subsequently been increasing. While there are a number of competing explanations for the temporal evolution of this greenhouse gas, these prominent features...
Authors: Daniel R. Feldman David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 26, 2021
Comparison of Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Vectors and Bred Vectors in Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Error GrowthInstabilities play a critical role in understanding atmospheric predictability and improving weather forecasting. The bred vectors (BVs) are dynamically evolved and flow-dependent nonlinear perturbations, indicating the most unstable modes of the ...
Authors: Jie Feng Zoltan Toth · Updated August 26, 2021
Assessing the Grell-Freitas Convection Parameterization in the NASA GEOS Modeling SystemWe implemented and began to evaluate an alternative convection parameterization for the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model (GCM). The proposed parameterization follows the mass flux approach with several closures,...
Authors: Saulo R. Freitas Georg A. Grell · Updated August 26, 2021
Using Deep Learning to Emulate and Accelerate a Radiative Transfer ModelThis paper describes the development of U-net++ models, a type of neural network that performs deep learning, to emulate the shortwave Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM). The goal is to emulate the RRTM accurately in a small fraction of the com...
Authors: Ryan Lagerquist David (Dave) D. Turner Jebb Q. Stewart Venita Hagerty · Updated March 01, 2022
The Relation between Nocturnal MCS Evolution and Its Outflow Boundaries in the Stable Boundary Layer: An Observational Study of the 15 July 2015 MCS in PECANThe vertical structures of a leading outflow boundary ahead of a continental nocturnal MCS and of the upstream environment are examined in order to answer the question of whether this vertical structure affects new cell formation and thus MCS main...
Authors: Coltin Grasmick David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 09, 2021
Survey of data assimilation methods for convective-scale numerical weather prediction at operational centresData assimilation (DA) methods for convective-scale numerical weather prediction at operational centres are surveyed. The operational methods include variational methods (3D-Var and 4D-Var), ensemble methods (LETKF) and hybrids between variational...
Authors: Nils Gustafsson Curtis R. Alexander David C. Dowell · Updated September 09, 2021
Offshore wind speed estimates from a high-resolution rapidly updating numerical weather prediction model forecast datasetIn association with the Department of Energy–funded Position of Offshore Wind Energy Resources (POWER) project, we present results from compositing a 3-year dataset of 80-m (above ground level) wind forecasts from the 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Re...
Authors: Eric P. James Stanley G. Benjamin Melinda C. Marquis · Updated September 09, 2021
Subseasonal Variability of Rossby Wave Breaking and Impacts on Tropical Cyclones during the North Atlantic Warm SeasonThis study investigates the subseasonal variability of anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking (AWB) and its impacts on atmospheric circulations and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic in the warm season from 1985 to 2013. Significant anomal...
Authors: Weiwei Li Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated September 10, 2021
Retrieving Mean Temperature of Atmospheric Liquid Water Layers Using Microwave Radiometer MeasurementsA remote sensing method to retrieve the mean temperature of cloud liquid using ground-based microwave radiometer measurements is evaluated and tested by comparisons with direct cloud temperature information inferred from ceilometer cloud-base meas...
Authors: Sergey Y. Matrosov David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 13, 2021
Evaluating the Experimental High-Resolution Rapid Refresh–Alaska Modeling System Using USArray Pressure ObservationsThe High-Resolution Rapid Refresh–Alaska (HRRR-AK) modeling system provides 3-km horizontal resolution and 0–36-h forecast guidance for weather conditions over Alaska. This study evaluated the experimental version of the HRRR-AK system available f...
Authors: Taylor A. McCorkle Trevor I. Alcott · Updated September 13, 2021
Modeling Ozone in the Eastern U.S. using a Fuel-Based Mobile Source Emissions InventoryRecent studies suggest overestimates in current U.S. emission inventories of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2). Here, we expand a previously developed fuel-based inventory of motor-vehicle emissions (FIVE) to the continental U.S. for the year 2013,...
Authors: Brian C. McDonald Ravan Ahmadov · Updated September 13, 2021
Characteristics of Water Vapor Turbulence Profiles in Convective Boundary Layers During the Dry and Wet Seasons Over DarwinThis study explores water vapor turbulence in the convective boundary layer (CBL) using the Raman lidar observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site located at Darwin, Australia. An autocovariance technique was used to separate out...
Authors: Mohammed K. Osman David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 13, 2021
Precipitation regimes over central Greenland inferred from 5 years of ICECAPS observationsA novel method for classifying Arctic precipitation using ground based remote sensors is presented. Using differences in the spectral variation of microwave absorption and scattering properties of cloud liquid water and ice, this method can distin...
Authors: Claire Pettersen David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 13, 2021
Object-Based Verification of a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast SystemAn object-based verification methodology for the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles (NEWS-e) has been developed and applied to 32 cases between December 2015 and June 2017. NEWS-e forecast objects of composite reflectivity and...
Authors: Patrick S. Skinner David C. Dowell Curtis R. Alexander Therese (Terra) T. Ladwig · Updated September 14, 2021
Improved cloud-phase determination of low-level liquid and mixed-phase clouds by enhanced polarimetric lidarThe unambiguous retrieval of cloud phase from polarimetric lidar observations is dependent on the assumption that only cloud scattering processes affect polarization measurements. A systematic bias of the traditional lidar depolarization ratio can...
Authors: Robert A. Stillwell David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 14, 2021
Subseasonal Forecasting with an Icosahedral, Vertically Quasi-Lagrangian Coupled Model. Part I: Model Overview and Evaluation of Systematic ErrorsThe atmospheric hydrostatic Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM), developed for medium-range weather prediction, provides a unique three-dimensional grid structure—a quasi-uniform icosahedral horizontal grid and an adaptive quasi-Lagrangian vert...
Authors: Shan Sun Rainer Bleck Stanley G. Benjamin Benjamin W. Green Georg A. Grell · Updated September 14, 2021
Subseasonal Forecasting with an Icosahedral, Vertically Quasi-Lagrangian Coupled Model. Part II: Probabilistic and Deterministic Forecast SkillSubseasonal forecast skill of the global hydrostatic atmospheric Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM) coupled to an icosahedral-grid version of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (iHYCOM) is evaluated through 32-day predictions initialized weekly...
Authors: Shan Sun Benjamin W. Green Rainer Bleck Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated September 14, 2021
Nonlinear Least Squares En4DVar to 4DEnVar Methods for Data Assimilation: Formulation, Analysis, and Preliminary EvaluationThe En4DVar method is designed to combine the flow-dependent statistical covariance information of EnKF into the traditional 4DVar method. However, the En4DVar method is still hampered by its strong dependence on the adjoint model of the underlyin...
Authors: Xiangjun Tian Yuanfu Xie · Updated September 15, 2021
Response of the Land-Atmosphere System Over North-Central Oklahoma During the 2017 EclipseOn 21 August 2017, a solar eclipse occurred over the continental United States resulting in a rapid reduction and subsequent increase of solar radiation over a large region of the country. The eclipse's effect on the land-atmosphere system is docu...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 15, 2021
Characteristic Atmospheric Radiative Heating Rate Profiles in Arctic Clouds as Observed at Barrow, AlaskaA 2-yr cloud microphysical property dataset derived from ground-based remote sensors at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site near Barrow, Alaska, was used as input into a radiative transfer model to compute radiative heating rate (RHR) profi...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 15, 2021
Designing the Climate Observing System of the FutureClimate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and freshwater availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in ...
Authors: Elizabeth (Betsy) C. Weatherhead Jason M. English · Updated September 15, 2021
A New Research Approach for Observing and Characterizing Land–Atmosphere FeedbackForecast errors with respect to wind, temperature, moisture, clouds, and precipitation largely correspond to the limited capability of current Earth system models to capture and simulate land–atmosphere feedback. To facilitate its realistic simula...
Authors: Volker Wulfmeyer David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 15, 2021
Toward a User-Centered Design of a Weather Forecasting Decision-Support ToolHazard Services is a software toolkit that integrates information management, hazard alerting, and communication functions into a single user interface. When complete, National Weather Service forecasters across the United States will use Hazard S...
Authors: Elizabeth M. Argyle Tracy L. Hansen Kevin L. Manross · Updated September 16, 2021
Thin ice clouds in the Arctic: cloud optical depth and particle size retrieved from ground-based thermal infrared radiometryMultiband downwelling thermal measurements of zenith sky radiance, along with cloud boundary heights, were used in a retrieval algorithm to estimate cloud optical depth and effective particle diameter of thin ice clouds in the Canadian High Arctic...
Authors: Yann Blanchard David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 16, 2021
A Comparison of the Finescale Structures of a Prefrontal Wind-Shift Line and a Strong Cold Front in the Southern Plains of the United StatesThe objectives of this study are to determine the finescale characteristics of the wind and temperature fields associated with a prefrontal wind-shift line and to contrast them with those associated with a strong cold front. Data from a mobile, po...
Authors: Howard B. Bluestein David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 16, 2021
Quantifying the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Diurnal Thermodynamic Profiles and Convection Indices Derived from the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance InterferometerWhile radiosondes have provided atmospheric scientists an accurate high-vertical-resolution profile of the troposphere for decades, they are unable to provide high-temporal-resolution observations without significant recurring expenses. Remote sen...
Authors: W. Greg. Blumberg David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 16, 2021
U.S. CH4 emissions from oil and gas production: Have recent large increases been detected?Recent studies have proposed significant increases in CH4 emissions possibly from oil and gas (O&G) production, especially for the U.S. where O&G production has reached historically high levels over the past decade. In this study, we show that an ...
Authors: Lori M. Bruhwiler Elizabeth (Betsy) C. Weatherhead · Updated September 16, 2021
Microwave Passive Ground-Based Retrievals of Cloud and Rain Liquid Water Path in Drizzling Clouds: Challenges and PossibilitiesSatellite and ground-based microwave radiometers are routinely used for the retrieval of liquid water path (LWP) under all atmospheric conditions. The retrieval of water vapor and LWP from ground-based radiometers during rain has proved to be a di...
Authors: Maria P. Cadeddu David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 21, 2021
Assessment of Radio Occultation Observations from the COSMIC-2 Mission with a Simplified Observing System Simulation Experiment ConfigurationThe mainstay of the global radio occultation (RO) system, the COSMIC constellation of six satellites launched in April 2006, is already past the end of its nominal lifetime and the number of soundings is rapidly declining because the constellation...
Authors: Lidia Cucurull Ruifang Li Tanya R. Peevey · Updated September 21, 2021
Spatially extended estimates of analysis and short-range forecast error variancesAccurate estimates of ‘true’ error variance between Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) analyses and forecasts and the ‘reality’ interpolated to a NWP model grid (Analysis and true Forecast Error Variance, hereafter AFEV) are critical for successfu...
Authors: Jie Feng Zoltan Toth · Updated September 21, 2021
Parallelization and Performance of the NIM Weather Model on CPU, GPU, and MIC ProcessorsThe design and performance of the Non-Hydrostatic Icosahedral Model (NIM) global weather prediction model is described. NIM is a dynamical core designed to run on central processing unit (CPU), graphics processing unit (GPU), and Many Integrated C...
Authors: Mark W. Govett James Rosinski Jacques Middlecoff thomas B. henderson Jin-Luen Lee Ning Wang paul madden Julie Schramm · Updated September 21, 2021
Evaluation of MJO Predictive Skill in Multiphysics and Multimodel Global EnsemblesMonthlong hindcasts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) from the atmospheric Flow-following Icosahedral Model coupled with an icosahedral-grid version of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (FIM-iHYCOM), and from the coupled Climate Forecast Syst...
Authors: Benjamin W. Green Shan Sun Stanley G. Benjamin Rainer Bleck Georg A. Grell · Updated September 21, 2021
Seasonal Analysis of Cloud Objects in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model Using Object-Based VerificationIn this study, object-based verification using the method for object-based diagnostic evaluation (MODE) is used to assess the accuracy of cloud-cover forecasts from the experimental High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRx) model during the warm and c...
Authors: Sarah M. Griffin Curtis R. Alexander · Updated September 22, 2021
Observing Convective AggregationConvective self-aggregation, the spontaneous organization of initially scattered convection into isolated convective clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing, was first recognized and studied in idealized numerical si...
Authors: Christopher E. Holloway David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 22, 2021
GSI Three-Dimensional Ensemble–Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation Using a Global Ensemble for the Regional Rapid Refresh ModelThe Rapid Refresh (RAP) is an hourly updated regional meteorological data assimilation/short-range model forecast system running operationally at NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) using the community Gridpoint Statistical I...
Authors: Ming Hu Stanley G. Benjamin Therese (Terra) T. Ladwig David C. Dowell Stephen S. Weygandt Curtis R. Alexander · Updated September 22, 2021
Observation System Experiments with the Hourly Updating Rapid Refresh Model Using GSI Hybrid Ensemble–Variational Data AssimilationA set of observation system experiments (OSEs) over three seasons using the hourly updated Rapid Refresh (RAP) numerical weather prediction (NWP) assimilation–forecast system identifies the importance of the various components of the North America...
Authors: Eric P. James Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated September 22, 2021
A unified high-resolution wind and solar dataset from a rapidly updating numerical weather prediction modelA new gridded dataset for wind and solar resource estimation over the contiguous United States has been derived from hourly updated 1-h forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 3-km mo...
Authors: Eric P. James Stanley G. Benjamin Melinda C. Marquis · Updated September 22, 2021
A Performance Comparison between Multiphysics and Stochastic Approaches within a North American RAP EnsembleA stochastic parameter perturbation (SPP) scheme consisting of spatially and temporally varying perturbations of uncertain parameters in the Grell–Freitas convective scheme and the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino planetary boundary scheme was develo...
Authors: Isidora Jankov Jeffrey R. Beck hongli jiang Joseph B. Olson Georg A. Grell Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Stanley G. Benjamin John M. Brown · Updated September 22, 2021
Greenland Clouds Observed in CALIPSO-GOCCP: Comparison with Ground-Based Summit ObservationsSpaceborne lidar observations from the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite provide the first-ever observations of cloud vertical structure and phase over the entire Greenland Ice Sheet. This study...
Authors: Adrien Lacour David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 22, 2021
GEFS Precipitation Forecasts and the Implications of Statistical Downscaling over the Western United StatesContemporary operational medium-range ensemble modeling systems produce quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) that provide guidance for weather forecasters, yet lack sufficient resolution to adequately resolve orographic influences on precip...
Authors: Wyndam R. Lewis Trevor I. Alcott · Updated September 22, 2021
Radiance Preprocessing for Assimilation in the Hourly Updating Rapid Refresh Mesoscale Model: A Study Using AIRS DataThis study describes the initial application of radiance bias correction and channel selection in the hourly updated Rapid Refresh model. For this initial application, data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are used; this dataset gives ...
Authors: Haidao Lin Stephen S. Weygandt Ming Hu John M. Brown Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated September 22, 2021
Satellite Radiance Data Assimilation within the Hourly Updated Rapid RefreshAssimilation of satellite radiance data in limited-area, rapidly updating weather model/assimilation systems poses unique challenges compared to those for global model systems. Principal among these is the severe data restriction posed by the shor...
Authors: Haidao Lin Stephen S. Weygandt Stanley G. Benjamin Ming Hu · Updated September 22, 2021
Measurements of downwelling far-infrared radiance during the RHUBC-II campaign at Cerro Toco, Chile and comparisons with line-by-line radiative transfer calculationsDownwelling radiances at the Earth's surface measured by the Far-Infrared Spectroscopy of the Troposphere (FIRST) instrument in an environment with integrated precipitable water (IPW) as low as 0.03 cm are compared with calculated spectra in the f...
Authors: Jeffrey C. Mast David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 22, 2021
THORPEX Research and the Science of PredictionThe Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) was a 10-yr, international research program organized by the World Meteorological Organization’s World Weather Research Program. THORPEX was motivated by the need to accelerate ...
Authors: David B. Parson Zoltan Toth · Updated September 28, 2021
Assessment of NWP Forecast Models in Simulating Offshore Winds through the Lower Boundary Layer by Measurements from a Ship-Based Scanning Doppler LidarEvaluation of model skill in predicting winds over the ocean was performed by comparing retrospective runs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models to shipborne Doppler lidar measurements in the Gulf of Maine, a potential region for U...
Authors: Yelena L. Pichugina Joseph B. Olson Melinda C. Marquis Eric P. James Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated September 28, 2021
The Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Overview, System Efforts, and Future DirectionsSince its initial release in 2000, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model has become one of the world’s most widely-used numerical weather prediction models. Designed to serve both research and operational needs, it has grown to offer a ...
Authors: Jordan G. Powers Ravan Ahmadov Georg A. Grell Stanley G. Benjamin Curtis R. Alexander · Updated September 28, 2021
Evaluation and intercomparison of wildfire smoke forecasts from multiple modeling systems for the 2019 Williams Flats fireWildfire smoke is one of the most significant concerns of human and environmental health, associated with its substantial impacts on air quality, weather, and climate. However, biomass burning emissions and smoke remain among the largest sources o...
Authors: Xinxin Ye Pargoal Arab Ravan Ahmadov Eric P. James Georg A. Grell Bradley Pierce Aditya Kumar Paul Makar Jack Chen Didier Davignon Gregory R. Carmichael Gonzalo A. Ferrada Jeff McQueen Jianping Huang Rajesh Kumar Louisa K. Emmons Farren L. Herron-Thorpe Mark Parrington Richard J. Engelen Vincent-Henri Peuch Arlindo M. da Silva Amber Soja Emily Gargulinski Elizabeth Wiggins Johnathan W. Hair Marta A. Fenn Taylor Shingler Shobha Kondragunta Alexei Lyapustin Yujie Wang Brent Holben David Giles Pablo E. Saide · Updated September 29, 2021
Spatial Coverage of Monitoring Networks: A Climate Observing System Simulation ExperimentObserving systems consisting of a finite number of in situ monitoring stations can provide high-quality measurements with the ability to quality assure both the instruments and the data but offer limited information over larger geographic areas. T...
Authors: Elizabeth (Betsy) C. Weatherhead Jason M. English · Updated September 30, 2021
How long do satellites need to overlap? Evaluation of climate data stability from overlapping satellite recordsSensors on satellites provide unprecedented understanding of the Earth's climate system by measuring incoming solar radiation, as well as both passive and active observations of the entire Earth with outstanding spatial and temporal coverage. A co...
Authors: Elizabeth (Betsy) C. Weatherhead Jason M. English · Updated September 30, 2021
Sense size-dependent dust loading and emission from space using reflected solar and infrared spectral measurements: An observation system simulation experimentThe Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) satellite mission observes hyperspectral Earth reflected solar (RS) and emitted infrared radiance (IR). Such measurements span an additional dimension on spectrally dependent sca...
Authors: Xiaoguang Xu Li (Kate) Zhang Georg A. Grell · Updated September 30, 2021
A WRF-Based Tool for Forecast Sensitivity to the Initial Perturbation: The Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations versus the First Singular Vector Method and Comparison to MM5A forecast sensitivity to initial perturbation (FSIP) analysis tool for the WRF Model was developed. The tool includes two modules respectively based on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method and the first singular vector (FS...
Authors: Huizhen Yu Hongli Wang · Updated September 30, 2021
What factors control the trend of increasing AAOD over the United States in the last decade?We examine the spatial and temporal trends of absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD) in the last decade over the United States (U.S.) observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Monthly average OMI AAOD has increased over broad areas of the...
Authors: Li (Kate) Zhang Georg A. Grell · Updated September 30, 2021
Diagnostic fields developed for hourly updated NOAA weather modelsThis document describes methods for diagnosing non-prognostic variables from explicit prognostic variables from hourly updated NOAA models. Many of these diagnostics have been developed for specific forecast applications for downstream forecast us...
Authors: Stanley G. Benjamin Eric P. James John M. Brown Edward J. Szoke Jaymes S. Kenyon Ravan Ahmadov · Updated October 06, 2021
Doppler-Lidar Evaluation of HRRR-Model Skill at Simulating Summertime Wind Regimes in the Columbia River Basin during WFIP2Complex-terrain locations often have repeatable near-surface wind patterns, such as synoptic gap flows and local thermally forced flows. An example is the Columbia River Valley in east-central Oregon-Washington, a significant wind-energy-generatio...
Authors: robert M. banta Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon Stanley G. Benjamin David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated November 01, 2021
The economic effects of improved precipitation forecasts in the United States due to better commuting decisionsEach year the U.S. government makes significant investments in improving weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models that are run operationally within the National Weather Service. Although the primary purpose is saving lives and pr...
Authors: Brad Hartman David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated December 02, 2021
Machine Learning for Targeted Assimilation of Satellite DataOptimizing the utilization of huge data sets is a challenging problem for weather prediction. To a significant degree, prediction accuracy is determined by the data used in model initialization, assimilated from a variety of observational platform...
Authors: Yu-Ju Lee David Hall Mark W. Govett Jebb Q. Stewart · Updated May 24, 2021
Assimilation of Pseudo-GLM Data Using the Ensemble Kalman FilterTotal lightning observations that will be available from the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) have the potential to be useful in the initialization of convection-resolving numerical weather models, particularly in areas where other type...
Authors: Blake J. Allen David C. Dowell · Updated October 15, 2021
Comments on “A Comparison of Temperature and Wind Measurements from ACARS-Equipped Aircraft and Rawinsondes”This comment is intended to identify an error in the label for Table 7 in Schwartz and Benjamin (1995, hereafter SB95). The label should have read “Statistics for rawinsonde − ACARS matched data…,” meaning that for this sample, rawinsondes were wa...
Authors: Stanley G. Benjamin William R. Moninger · Updated October 15, 2021
Community HWRF Users' Guide v3.5a August 2013The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) system for hurricane prediction (HWRF) is an operational model implemented at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Weather Service (NWS) to provide numerical guidance to t...
Authors: Ligia R. Bernardet Shaowu Bao timothy P. brown · Updated October 15, 2021
Deposition and rainwater concentrations of trifluoroacetic acid in the United States from the use of HFO-1234yfCurrently, HFC-134a (1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane) is the most common refrigerant in automobile air conditioners. This high global warming potential substance (100 year GWP of 1370) will likely be phased out and replaced with HFO-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetr...
Authors: Jan Kazil Georg A. Grell · Updated October 15, 2021
Controls on surface aerosol particle number concentrations and aerosol-limited cloud regimes over the central Greenland Ice SheetThis study presents the first full annual cycle (2019–2020) of ambient surface aerosol particle number concentration measurements (condensation nuclei > 20 nm, N20) collected at Summit Station (Summit), in the centre of the Greenland Ice Sheet (72...
Authors: Heather Guy David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated October 18, 2021
Assessment of the data assimilation framework for the Rapid Refresh Forecast System v0.1 and impacts on forecasts of a convective storm case studyThe Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) is currently under development and aims to replace the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational suite of regional and convective scale modeling systems in the next upgrade. In order ...
Authors: Ivette H. Banos Guoqing Ge · Updated September 13, 2022
Using deep learning to nowcast the spatial coverage of convection from Himawari-8 satellite dataPredicting the timing and location of thunderstorms (“convection”) allows for preventive actions that can save both lives and property. We have applied U-nets, a deep-learning-based type of neural network, to forecast convection on a grid at lead ...
Authors: Ryan Lagerquist Jebb Q. Stewart Christina E. Kumler · Updated December 07, 2021
Evaluating Operational and Experimental HRRR Model Forecasts of Atmospheric River Events in CaliforniaImproved forecasts of atmospheric river (AR) events, which provide up to half the annual precipitation in California, may reduce impacts to water supply, lives, and property. We evaluate quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the High-Res...
Authors: Jason M. English David (Dave) D. Turner Trevor I. Alcott William R. Moninger Melinda C. Marquis · Updated October 25, 2021
Assessment of Storm-Scale Real Time Assimilation of GOES-16 GLM Lightning-Derived Water Vapor Mass on Short Term Precipitation Forecasts during the 2020 Spring Forecast ExperimentThis study assesses the impact of assimilating pseudo-observations for water vapor mass derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites GOES-16 lightning data on short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) over the c...
Authors: Eric P. James Ming Hu Junjun Hu · Updated November 15, 2021
Evaluating the Economic Impacts of Improvements to the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Numerical Weather Prediction ModelForecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models play a critical role in many sectors of the American economy. Improvements to operational NWP model forecasts are generally assumed to provide significant economic savings through better dec...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated February 14, 2022
The Aerosol Module in the Community Radiative Transfer Model (v2.2 and v2.3): accounting for aerosol transmittance effects on the radiance observation operatorThe Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), a sensor-based radiative transfer model, has been used within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system for directly assimilating radiances from infrared and microwave sensors. We conducted...
Authors: Cheng-Hsuan Lu Guoqing Ge Ming Hu · Updated February 22, 2022
Tornado Formation and Intensity Prediction Using Polarimetric Radar Estimates of Updraft AreaA sample of 198 supercells are investigated to determine if a radar proxy for the area of the storm midlevel updraft may be a skillful predictor of imminent tornado formation and/or peak tornado intensity. A novel algorithm, a modified version of ...
Authors: Michael M. French Darrel M. Kingfield · Updated November 29, 2021
The Experimental Warning Program of NOAA’s Hazardous Weather TestbedNOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) is a physical space and research framework to foster collaboration and evaluate emerging tools, technology, and products for NWS operations. The HWT’s Experimental Warning Program (EWP) focuses on research, t...
Authors: Kristin M. Calhoun Darrel M. Kingfield · Updated January 03, 2022
The History and Practice of AI in the Environmental SciencesArtificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have become important tools for environmental scientists and engineers, both in research and in applications. Although these methods have become quite popular in recent years, they are not new...
Authors: Sue Ellen Haupt William R. Moninger · Updated June 08, 2022
Comparing Partial and Continuously Cycling Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation Systems for Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecast InitializationSeveral limited-area 80-member ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation systems with 15-km horizontal grid spacing were run over a computational domain spanning the conterminous United States (CONUS) for a 4-week period. One EnKF employed c...
Authors: Craig S. Schwartz David C. Dowell · Updated January 10, 2022
Demonstrating a Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Estimate for Evaluating Precipitation Forecasts in Complex TerrainAccurate quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) at high spatial and temporal resolution are difficult to obtain in regions of complex terrain due to the large spatial heterogeneity of orographically enhanced precipitation, sparsity of gauges,...
Authors: Janice L. Bytheway Jason M. English · Updated January 12, 2022
The Effects of Environmental Wind Shear Direction on Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer Thermodynamics and Intensity Change from Multiple Observational DatasetsThe relationship between deep-layer environmental wind shear direction and tropical cyclone (TC) boundary layer thermodynamic structures is explored in multiple independent databases. Analyses derived from the tropical cyclone buoy database (TCBD)...
Authors: Joshua B. Wadler Evan A. Kalina · Updated January 19, 2022
A North American Hourly Assimilation and Model Forecast Cycle: The Rapid RefreshThe Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly-updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA National Centers for Environment...
Authors: Stanley G. Benjamin Stephen S. Weygandt John M. Brown Curtis R. Alexander Ming Hu Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Joseph B. Olson Eric P. James David C. Dowell Georg A. Grell Haidao Lin Steven E. Peckham Tracy L. Smith William R. Moninger Jaymes S. Kenyon · Updated January 25, 2022
A Vertically Flow-Following Icosahedral Grid Model for Medium-Range and Seasonal Prediction. Part I: Model DescriptionA hydrostatic global weather prediction model based on an icosahedral horizontal grid and a hybrid terrain-following/isentropic vertical coordinate is described. The model is an extension to three spatial dimensions of a previously developed, icos...
Authors: Rainer Bleck Stanley G. Benjamin John M. Brown Michael Fiorino thomas B. henderson Jacques Middlecoff James Rosinski Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Shan Sun Ning Wang · Updated January 25, 2022
Analyzing the Grell-Freitas convection scheme from hydrostatic to non hydrostatic scales within a global modelThe authors implemented the Grell–Freitas (GF) parameterization of convection in which the cloud-base mass flux varies quadratically as a function of the convective updraft fraction in the global nonhydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales (...
Authors: Laura D. Fowler Georg A. Grell · Updated January 26, 2022
Application of the Bayesian Processor of Ensemble to the Combination and Calibration of Ensemble ForecastsEnsemble forecasts are developed to assess and convey uncertainty in weather forecasts. Unfortunately, ensemble prediction systems (EPS) usually underestimate uncertainty and thus are statistically not reliable. In this study, we apply the Bayesia...
Authors: Yi Wang Zoltan Toth · Updated January 26, 2022
Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis at Fine Scales: Statistical Adjustment of Stage IV toward CPC Gauge-Based AnalysisTwo widely used precipitation analyses are the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified global daily gauge analysis and Stage IV analysis based on quantitative precipitation estimate with multisensor observations. The former is based on gauge recor...
Authors: Dingchen Hou Zoltan Toth · Updated January 27, 2022
Community Global Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) Package (CGOP): Description and UsageA modular extensible framework for conducting observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) has been developed with the goals of 1) supporting decision-makers with quantitative assessments of proposed observing systems investments, 2) supporting...
Authors: Sid-Ahmed Boukabara Ruifang Li Lidia Cucurull · Updated January 27, 2022
Community Support and Transition of Research to Operations for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting ModelThe Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) is an operational model used to provide numerical guidance in support of tropical cyclone forecasting at the National Hurricane Center. HWRF is a complex multicomponent system, consisting...
Authors: Ligia R. Bernardet Shaowu Bao timothy P. brown · Updated January 27, 2022
Description and Analysis of the Ocean Component of NOAA’s Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF)The Princeton Ocean Model for Tropical Cyclones (POM-TC), a version of the three-dimensional primitive equation numerical ocean model known as the Princeton Ocean Model, was the ocean component of NOAA’s operational Hurricane Weather Research and ...
Authors: Richard M. Yablonsky Ligia R. Bernardet · Updated January 31, 2022
The Influence of Aerosols on Satellite Infrared Radiance Simulations and Jacobians: Numerical Experiments of CRTM and GSIFor a variational data assimilation (DA) system that assimilates radiance observations, the simulated brightness temperature (BT) at the top of the atmosphere and the corresponding Jacobians carried out by the radiance observation operator are nee...
Authors: Shih-Wei Wei Guoqing Ge Ming Hu · Updated February 07, 2022
Comparison of Observations and Predictions of Daytime Planetary-Boundary-Layer Heights and Surface Meteorological Variables in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement ProjectThe second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is an 18-month field campaign in the Pacific Northwest U.S.A., whose goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical-weather-prediction forecasts in complex terrain. The WFIP2 campaign involved the...
Authors: Laura Bianco Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated February 07, 2022
Ensemble Prediction with the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): Providing Probabilistic Forecasts of Weather Hazards for AviationThe 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) and 3-km convective-allowing High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) are hourly updating weather forecast models that use a specially configured version of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and assimilate many novel ...
Authors: Curtis R. Alexander Trevor I. Alcott Stephen S. Weygandt Isidora Jankov Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated February 11, 2022
Ensemble transform sensitivity method for adaptive observationsThe Ensemble Transform (ET) method has been shown to be useful in providing guidance for adaptive observation deployment. It predicts forecast error variance reduction for each possible deployment using its corresponding transformation matrix in a...
Authors: Yu Zhang Yuanfu Xie Hongli Wang Zoltan Toth · Updated February 11, 2022
Ensemble Transform Sensitivity Method for Target Observations: An OSSE Case StudyUnmanned aerial system (UAS) for improving forecast accuracy of high-impact weather systems has been studied under the Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) project in the NOAA joint OSSE system. Due to the limited number of...
Authors: Hongli Wang Tanya R. Peevey Jason M. English Andrew C. Kren Lidia Cucurull · Updated February 11, 2022
Estimation of Analysis and Forecast Error VariancesAccurate estimates of error variances in numerical analyses and forecasts (i.e. difference between analysis or forecast fields and nature on the resolved scales) are critical for the evaluation of forecasting systems, the tuning of data assimilati...
Authors: Malaquías Peña Zoltan Toth · Updated February 11, 2022
Expanding the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) from Deterministic to Ensemble Data Assimilation, Forecasts and Post-ProcessingThe 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) and 3-km convective-allowing High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) are hourly updating weather forecast models that use a specially configured version of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and assimilate many novel ...
Authors: Curtis R. Alexander David C. Dowell Trevor I. Alcott Isidora Jankov Therese (Terra) T. Ladwig Ming Hu Jeffrey R. Beck Joseph B. Olson Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Georg A. Grell Stanley G. Benjamin Stephen S. Weygandt John M. Brown Eric P. James Tracy L. Smith Jeffrey Hamilton · Updated February 11, 2022
Explicit Precipitation-Type Diagnosis from a Model Using a Mixed-Phase Bulk Cloud–Precipitation Microphysics ParameterizationThe Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), both operational at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) use the Thompson et al. mixed-phase bulk cloud microphysics scheme. This scheme permits predicted sur...
Authors: Stanley G. Benjamin John M. Brown Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova · Updated February 14, 2022
Forcing Mechanisms for an Internal Rear-Flank Downdraft Momentum Surge in the 18 May 2010 Dumas, Texas, SupercellThe forcing and origins of an internal rear-flank downdraft (RFD) momentum surge observed by the second Verification of the Origin of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) within a supercell occurring near Dumas, Texas, on 18 May 2010 is asse...
Authors: Patrick S. Skinner David C. Dowell · Updated February 14, 2022
Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissionsCarbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are a major cause of anthropogenic climate change. The deployment of wind and solar power reduces these emissions, but is subject to the variability of the weather. In the present study, we calc...
Authors: Alexander E. MacDonald Christopher TM. Clack Yuanfu Xie · Updated February 14, 2022
Implementation of a Digital Filter Initialization in the WRF Model and Its Application in the Rapid RefreshBecause of limitations of variational and ensemble data assimilation schemes, resulting analysis fields exhibit some noise from imbalance in subsequent model forecasts. Controlling finescale noise is desirable in the NOAA’s Rapid Refresh (RAP) ass...
Authors: Steven E. Peckham Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Stanley G. Benjamin John M. Brown Jaymes S. Kenyon · Updated February 14, 2022
Linear programming techniques for developing an optimal electrical system including high-voltage direct-current transmission and storageThe planning and design of an electric power system, including high-voltage direct-current transmission, is a complex optimization problem. The optimization must integrate and model the engineering requirements and limitations of the generation, w...
Authors: Christopher TM. Clack Yuanfu Xie · Updated February 15, 2022
Major Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) and the Future of EPSSince the early 1990s, ensemble methods have been increasingly used to address predictability issues, and provide estimates of forecast uncertainties, e.g., in the form of a range of forecast scenarii or of probabilities of occurrence of weather e...
Authors: Roberto Buizza Zoltan Toth · Updated February 15, 2022
Modifications to the Rapid Update Cycle Land Surface Model (RUC LSM) Available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) ModelThe land surface model (LSM) described in this manuscript was originally developed as part of the NOAA Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model development effort; with ongoing modifications, it is now used as an option for the WRF community model. The RUC ...
Authors: Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova John M. Brown Stanley G. Benjamin Jaymes S. Kenyon · Updated February 15, 2022
Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Severe Weather and Aviation Products: Initial Operating CapabilitiesThe Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, which was developed at the National Severe Storms Laboratory and the University of Oklahoma, was made operational in 2014 at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The MRMS system consists of...
Authors: Travis M. Smith Kevin L. Manross · Updated February 15, 2022
National Weather Service Forecasters Use GPS Precipitable Water Vapor for Enhanced Situational Awareness during the Southern California Summer MonsoonDuring the North American Monsoon, low-to-mid level moisture is transported in surges from the Gulf of California and Eastern Pacific Ocean into Mexico and the American Southwest. As rising levels of precipitable water interact with the mountainou...
Authors: Angelyn W. Moore seth I. gutman · Updated February 15, 2022
NOAA Holistic Climate and Earth System Model Strategy Phase I: Current StateThis report describes Phase I of a two-phase study proposed and organized by the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) in early 2014 for the development of a NOAA Holistic Climate and Earth System Modeling Strategy. Defining NOAA’s strategy for global...
Authors: David G. DeWitt Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated February 15, 2022
Numerical Simulations of Lightning and Storm Charge of the 29–30 May 2004 Geary, Oklahoma, Supercell Thunderstorm Using EnKF Mobile Radar Data AssimilationResults from simulations are compared with dual-Doppler and total lightning observations of the 29–30 May 2004 high-precipitation supercell storm from the Thunderstorm Electrification and Lightning Experiment (TELEX). The simulations use two-momen...
Authors: Kristin M. Calhoun David C. Dowell · Updated February 15, 2022
Optimization by Firefly with Predation for Ensemble Precipitation Estimation Using BRAMSThe precipitation is predicted by using a weighted combination of different convective parameterization schemes. The best prediction estimation is obtained by calculating the appropriated weights for the ensemble of parameterizations. The weight i...
Authors: Eduardo FP. da Luz Georg A. Grell · Updated February 15, 2022
Planning the Next Decade of Coordinated U.S. Research on Minutes-to-Seasonal Prediction of High-Impact WeatherThe end of 2014 marked the conclusion of The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX), a 10-year research and development program organized under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/World Weather Research Programme...
Authors: Sharanya J. Majumdar Zoltan Toth · Updated February 15, 2022
Progress Toward Improved Solar Forecasts in Hourly Updated RAP and HRRR ForecastsThe High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 3km hourly updated model is now being run operationally at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). A focus on improved cloud/solar forecasts has been central to development of HRRRv2 an...
Authors: Stanley G. Benjamin Eric P. James Jaymes S. Kenyon Joseph B. Olson Curtis R. Alexander · Updated February 15, 2022
Pseudo-Precipitation: A Continuous Precipitation VariableThe discontinuous and highly nonlinear nature of precipitation makes its statistical manipulation, like the reduction of bias in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) or probabilistic QPF (PQPF) problematic. To ease the statistical post-proce...
Authors: Huiling Yuan Paul J. Schultz Zoltan Toth edward tollerud · Updated February 15, 2022
Quality Assessment of CoSPAThis report summarizes a formal quality assessment of CoSPA, a high-resolution convective forecast being developed for use in air traffic management. On behalf of the Federal Aviation Administration’s Aviation Weather Research Program, and in supp...
Authors: Jennifer L. Mahoney steven A. lack Geary J. Layne Sean Madine · Updated February 15, 2022
Quality Assessment Report: National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis ProductThis report summarizes a formal quality assessment of the National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis product (NCVA), a gridded analysis th at evaluates reported ceiling and visibility information for the purpose of improving the flight planning proc...
Authors: Jennifer L. Mahoney Andrew F. Loughe Judy K. Henderson Joan E. Hart Sean Madine Brian P. Pettegrew · Updated February 15, 2022
Radar in Atmospheric Sciences and Related Research: Current Systems, Emerging Technology, and Future NeedsTo assist the National Science Foundation in meeting the needs of the community of scientists by providing them with the instrumentation and platforms necessary to conduct their research successfully, a meeting was held in late November 2012 with ...
Authors: Howard B. Bluestein David C. Dowell · Updated February 16, 2022
Rap and HRRR Model/Assimilation System Improvements for Aviation Weather Applications: Latest Upgrades and Ongoing WorkAn operational upgrade of the RAP and HRRR model systems at NCEP is planned for August 2016. This coordinated upgrade (RAP version 3 and HRRR version 2, RAPv3/HRRRv2) includes many enhancements to the data assimilation, model, and post-processing...
Authors: Stephen S. Weygandt Curtis R. Alexander Stanley G. Benjamin John M. Brown Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Ming Hu Jaymes S. Kenyon Joseph B. Olson David C. Dowell Eric P. James Isidora Jankov · Updated February 16, 2022
Rapid Mesoscale Environmental Changes Accompanying Genesis of an Unusual TornadoThis study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiler, and in 1-km...
Authors: steven E. koch hongli jiang Yuanfu Xie · Updated February 16, 2022
Real-Time Applications of the Variational Version of the Local Analysis and Prediction System (vLAPS)The accurate and timely depiction of the state of the atmosphere on multiple scales is critical to enhance forecaster situational awareness and to initialize very short-range numerical forecasts in support of nowcasting activities. The Local Analy...
Authors: hongli jiang steve C. albers Yuanfu Xie Zoltan Toth Isidora Jankov daniel L. birkenheuer · Updated February 16, 2022
The Influence of WSR-88D Intra-Volume Scanning Strategies on Thunderstorm Observations and Warnings in the Dual-Polarization Radar Era: 2011–20The Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network has undergone several improvements in the last decade with the upgrade to dual-polarization capabilities and the ability for forecasters to rescan the lowest levels of the atmosphere mo...
Authors: Darrel M. Kingfield · Updated February 17, 2022
Sensitivity of the Summer Precipitation Simulated with WRF Model to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization over the Tibetan Plateau and its Downstream AreasThis study examines the sensitivity of simulated precipitation to planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). The summer precipitation from 15 June to 30 July 2010 is simulated with the ...
Authors: Guirong Xu Yuanfu Xie · Updated February 17, 2022
Storm-Scale Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasts for the 27 April 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak in AlabamaAs part of NOAA’s Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) initiative, a multiscale ensemble-based assimilation and prediction system is developed using the WRF-ARW model and DART assimilation software. To evaluate the capabilities of the system, retrospective shor...
Authors: Nusrat Yussouf David C. Dowell · Updated February 17, 2022
Stratospheric intrusions, the Santa Ana winds, and wildland fires in Southern CaliforniaThe Santa Ana winds of Southern California have long been associated with wildland fires that can adversely affect air quality and lead to loss of life and property. These katabatic winds are driven primarily by thermal gradients but can be exacer...
Authors: Andrew O. Langford Paul J. Schultz · Updated February 17, 2022
The Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM): Performance for Tropical Rainfall Forecasting and Sensitivity to Convective Scheme and Horizontal ResolutionThis article describes the main features of the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM), analyses of its performance for tropical rainfall forecasting, and its sensitivity to convective scheme and horizontal resolution. BAM is the new global atmo...
Authors: Silvio N. Figueroa Georg A. Grell · Updated February 17, 2022
The Amazon Dense GNSS Meteorological Network: A New Approach for Examining Water Vapor and Deep Convection Interactions in the TropicsThe complex interactions between water vapor fields and deep atmospheric convection remain one of the outstanding problems in tropical meteorology. The lack of high spatial–temporal resolution, all-weather observations in the tropics has hampered ...
Authors: David K. Adams Kirk L. Holub seth I. gutman · Updated February 17, 2022
The FX-CAVE System Demonstration for the National Interagency Fire Weather ProgramThe Predictive Services Units (PSU) at the Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACC) and at the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) have the responsibility of predicting weather and climate patterns to fulfill their mission of supporting the...
Authors: Evan Polster Woody Roberts Paul J. Schultz · Updated February 18, 2022
The Influence of Topography on Convective Storm Environments in the Eastern United States as Deduced from the HRRRRelatively little is known about how topography affects convective storms. The first step toward understanding these effects is to investigate how topography affects storm environments. Unfortunately, the effects of topography on convective enviro...
Authors: Branden Katona Curtis R. Alexander Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated February 18, 2022
The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX)The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) was conducted from 15 May to 15 June 2013 in the central United States. MPEX was motivated by the basic question of whether experimental, subsynoptic observations can extend convective-scale predictab...
Authors: Morris L. Weisman John M. Brown David C. Dowell · Updated February 18, 2022
The North American Monsoon GPS Transect Experiment 2013Northwest Mexico experiences large variations in water vapor on seasonal time scales in association with the North American monsoon (NAM), as well as during the monsoon associated with upper tropospheric troughs, mesoscale convective systems, trop...
Authors: Yolande L. Serra Kirk L. Holub · Updated February 22, 2022
The Variability and Intermittency of Wind and Solar Power Can Be Overcome Without Storage By Using the National Energy With Weather System (NEWS) Simulator To Design A National US Electric SectorThe importance of weather-driven renewable energies for the United States energy portfolio is growing. The main perceived problems with weather-driven renewable energies are their intermittent nature, low power density, and high costs. The Coopera...
Authors: Christopher TM. Clack Melinda C. Marquis · Updated February 22, 2022
The vital need for a climate information systemThere is increasing acceptance among the general public that the climate is changing and that it is mainly due to human activities. Scientists have long been aware of this and it has been made clear in the many IPCC assessment reports since the se...
Authors: Kevin E. Trenberth Melinda C. Marquis · Updated February 23, 2022
The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast NeedsThe Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goal of which is to improve the accuracy of short-term (0–6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of ...
Authors: James M. wilczak Joseph B. Olson Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated February 23, 2022
Thermodynamic and liquid profiling during the 2010 Winter OlympicsTropospheric observations by a microwave profiling radiometer and six-hour radiosondes were obtained during the Alpine Venue of the 2010 Winter Olympic Games at Whistler, British Columbia, by Environment Canada. The radiometer provided continuous ...
Authors: Randolph H. Ware steve C. albers · Updated February 23, 2022
Update of the Status of Numerical Weather Prediction1:30 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. Update of the Status of Numerical Weather Prediction Numerical Weather Prediction (i.e., weather models), apart from climatology, are the basis for all weather forecasts beyond about 2 hours into the future. Aviation weat...
Authors: Stephen S. Weygandt Danny Sims · Updated February 23, 2022
Utilization of Real-Time Vineyard Observations to Produce Downscaled Temperature Forecasts for Frost Protection OperationsContinued drought in California, along with a threatened and endangered salmon population, has required the state of California to control Russian River water usage to protect young, budding winegrape vines during spring frosts. Improved forecasts...
Authors: David W. Reynolds Thomas J. LeFebvre · Updated February 24, 2022
Wavelet Compression Technique for High-Resolution Global Model Data on an Icosahedral GridModern Earth modeling systems often use high-resolution unstructured grids to discretize their horizontal domains. One of the major challenges in working with these high-resolution models is to efficiently transmit and store large volumes of model...
Authors: Ning Wang fanthune moeng · Updated February 24, 2022
WRF-Chem Version 3.8.1 Users GuideThe WRF-Chem User's Guide is designed to provide the reader with information specific to the chemistry part of the WRF model and its potential applications. It will provide the user a description of the WRF-Chem model and discuss specific issues r...
Authors: Georg A. Grell Ravan Ahmadov Ka Yee Wong Steven E. Peckham · Updated February 24, 2022
Sensitivity of PAZ LEO Polarimetric GNSS Radio-Occultation Experiment to Precipitation EventsA Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) experiment is being accommodated in the Spanish low Earth orbiter for Earth Observation PAZ. The RO payload will provide globally distributed vertical thermodynamic profiles of the...
Authors: Estel Cardellach Lidia Cucurull · Updated February 24, 2022
Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology/ Climate Modelling (CCMM): status and relevance for numerical weather prediction, atmospheric pollution and climate researchOnline coupled meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and clim...
Authors: Alexander Baklanov Georg A. Grell · Updated February 24, 2022
Quality Assessment Report: National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis Product"This report summarizes a formal quality assessment of the National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis product (NCVA), a gridded analysis that evaluates reported ceiling and visibility information for the purpose of improving flight planning process....
Authors: Andrew F. Loughe Brian P. Pettegrew Judy K. Henderson Joan E. Hart Sean Madine Jennifer L. Mahoney · Updated February 24, 2022
WRF/Chem Version 3.3 User's Guide
Authors: Steven E. Peckham Georg A. Grell · Updated February 25, 2022
Community Data Assimilation Research and DevelopmentThe quality of Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) critically depends on the choice of initial conditions. In the US alone, a number of major Data Assimilation (DA) systems have been developed to provide estimates of the state of the atmosphere to...
Authors: Yuanfu Xie Zoltan Toth · Updated February 25, 2022
Investigating the impacts of daytime boundary layer clouds on surface energy fluxes and boundary layer structure during CHEESEHEAD19Studies of land-atmosphere interactions under clear sky and low cumulus cloud conditions are common from long-term observatories like at the southern great plains (SGP). How well the relationships and responses of surface radiative and turbulent h...
Authors: Joseph Sedlar David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated February 28, 2022
Simultaneous Observations of Surface Layer Profiles of Humidity, Temperature, and Wind using Scanning Lidar InstrumentsWe demonstrate the combination of three Doppler lidars, a water vapor differential absorption lidar and a temperature rotational Raman lidar for the investigation of the interactions between the land-surface and the atmospheric boundary layer. Thi...
Authors: Florian Späth David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated March 14, 2022
The Fires, Asian, and Stratospheric Transport–Las Vegas Ozone Study (FAST-LVOS)he Fires, Asian, and Stratospheric Transport–Las Vegas Ozone Study (FAST-LVOS) was conducted in May and June of 2017 to study the transport of ozone (O3) to Clark County, Nevada, a marginal non-attainment area in the southwestern United States (SW...
Authors: Andrew O. Langford Mariusz Pagowski · Updated March 04, 2022
Trends in Downwelling Longwave Radiance Over the Southern Great PlainsDownwelling longwave radiation is an important part of the surface energy budget. Spectral trends in the downwelling longwave radiance (DLR) provide insight into the radiative drivers of climate change. In this research, we process and analyze a 2...
Authors: Lei Liu David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated March 15, 2022
Observing Profiles of Derived Kinematic Field Quantities Using a Network of Profiling SitesObservations of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters associated with derivatives of the thermodynamics and wind fields, namely, advection, vorticity, divergence, and deformation, can be obtained by applying Green’s theorem to a network of observ...
Authors: Timothy J. Wagner David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated March 17, 2022
2020 HFIP R&D Activities Summary: Recent Results and Operational ImplementationThis technical report describes the activities and results of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) that occurred in 2020. The major development focus remained in building the next generation hurricane model, the Hurricane Analysis and...
Authors: Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan Curtis R. Alexander Ligia R. Bernardet Evan A. Kalina Paula McCaslin · Updated March 23, 2022
Passive ground-based remote sensing of radiation fogAccurate boundary layer temperature and humidity profiles are crucial for successful forecasting of fog, and accurate retrievals of liquid water path are important for understanding the climatological significance of fog. Passive ground-based remo...
Authors: Heather Guy David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 07, 2022
NOAA’s Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) Experiment Observations and Forecast ImpactsThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) project evaluated the ability of observations from high-altitude unmanned aircraft to improve forecasts of high-impact weathe...
Authors: Gary A. Wick Jason M. English Tanya R. Peevey Hongli Wang · Updated March 29, 2022
Evaluating convective planetary boundary layer height estimations resolved by both active and passive remote sensing instruments during the CHEESEHEAD19 field campaignDuring the Chequamegon Heterogeneous Ecosystem Energy-balance Study Enabled by a High-density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 (CHEESEHEAD19) field campaign, held in the summer of 2019 in northern Wisconsin, USA, active and passive ground-based r...
Authors: James B. Duncan David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated April 25, 2022
STATISTICAL POST-PROCESSING OF 1–14 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR TAIWANThe predictability of precipitation is limited due to the important role finer scale processes play. However, demand for medium- (3–10 days) and extended-range (10–30 days) precipitation forecasts by agriculture, forestry, livestock, and water res...
Authors: Hui-Ling Chang Zoltan Toth · Updated May 09, 2022
Forecasting lake-/sea-effect snowstorms, advancement, and challengesLake-/sea-effect snow forms typically from late fall to winter when a cold air mass moves over the warmer, large water surface. The resulting intense snowfall has many societal impacts on communities living in downwind areas; hence, accurate forec...
Authors: Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated May 11, 2022
Estimating the economic impacts of improved wind speed forecasts in the United States electricity sectorEach year the U.S. government makes significant investments in improving weather forecast models. In this paper, we use a multidisciplinary approach to examine how utilities can benefit from improved wind-speed forecasts to more efficiently use wi...
Authors: Hwayoung Jeon David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated May 17, 2022
Overlapping Windows in a Global Hourly Data Assimilation SystemThe US operational global data assimilation system provides updated analysis and forecast fields every six hours, which is not frequent enough to handle the rapid error growth associated with hurricanes or other storms. This motivates development ...
Authors: Laura C. Slivinski Guoqing Ge Curtis R. Alexander · Updated May 31, 2022
Radar Reflectivity-based Model Initialization using Specified Latent Heating (Radar-LHI) within a Diabatic Digital Filter or Pre-forecast IntegrationA technique for model initialization using three-dimensional radar reflectivity data has been developed and applied within the NOAA 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) and 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) regional forecast systems. This technique e...
Authors: Stephen S. Weygandt Stanley G. Benjamin Ming Hu Curtis R. Alexander Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Eric P. James · Updated August 05, 2022
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part 1: Motivation and System DescriptionThe High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a convection-allowing implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW) with hourly data assimilation that covers the conterminous United States and Alaska and runs in real time at t...
Authors: David C. Dowell Curtis R. Alexander Eric P. James Stephen S. Weygandt Stanley G. Benjamin John M. Brown Joseph B. Olson Ming Hu Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Therese (Terra) T. Ladwig Jaymes S. Kenyon Ravan Ahmadov David (Dave) D. Turner Jeffrey D. Duda Trevor I. Alcott · Updated August 05, 2022
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part 2: Forecast PerformanceThe High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a convection-allowing implementation of the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF-ARW) that covers the conterminous United States and Alaska and runs hourly (for CONUS; every three hours for ...
Authors: Eric P. James Curtis R. Alexander David C. Dowell Stephen S. Weygandt Stanley G. Benjamin John M. Brown Joseph B. Olson Ming Hu Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Therese (Terra) T. Ladwig Jaymes S. Kenyon David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated June 02, 2022
Information Content of a Synergy of Ground-Based and Space-Based Infrared Sounders. Part I: Clear-Sky EnvironmentsProfiles of atmospheric temperature and water vapor from remotely sensed platforms provide critical observations within the temporal and spatial gaps of the radiosonde network. The 2017 National Academies of Science Decadal Survey highlighted that...
Authors: David M. Loveless David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated June 08, 2022
Land–Snow Data Assimilation Including a Moderately Coupled Initialization Method Applied to NWPInitialization methods are needed for geophysical components of Earth system prediction models. These methods are needed from medium-range to decadal predictions and also for short-range Earth system forecasts in support of safety (e.g., severe we...
Authors: Stanley G. Benjamin Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Eric P. James Liao-Fan Lin Ming Hu David (Dave) D. Turner Siwei He · Updated June 08, 2022
NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography (AI2ES)We introduce the National Science Foundation (NSF) AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography (AI2ES). This AI institute was funded in 2020 as part of a new initiative from the NSF to advance foundati...
Authors: Amy McGovern Jebb Q. Stewart · Updated July 19, 2022
Current Challenges in Climate and Weather Research and Future DirectionsThis paper summarizes the current challenges in climate and weather research and provides suggestions for future research directions in global observing systems, in modelling and prediction, and in academic environment and education systems.
Authors: Jialin Lin Hannah Barnes Georg A. Grell · Updated August 22, 2022
Retrievals of Ozone in the Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere Using FTIR Observations Over GreenlandWhen retrieving geophysical parameters, it is advantageous to have an estimate of prior information that is based on observations with associated uncertainties, but this is often not possible. Long-term ground-based remote sensing measurements and...
Authors: Shima Bahramvash Shams David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated June 17, 2022
Prototype of a Warn-on-Forecast System for Smoke (WoFS-Smoke)This research begins the process of creating an ensemble-based forecast system for smoke aerosols generated from wildfires using a modified version of the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). The existing WoFS h...
Authors: Thomas Jones Ravan Ahmadov Eric P. James Georg A. Grell · Updated June 27, 2022
High-resolution smoke forecasting for the 2018 Camp Fire in CaliforniaSmoke from the 2018 Camp Fire in Northern California blanketed a large part of the region for two weeks, creating poor air quality in the “unhealthy” range for millions of people. The NOAA Global System Laboratory’s HRRR-Smoke model was operating ...
Authors: Fotini Katopodes Chow Eric P. James Georg A. Grell Ravan Ahmadov · Updated June 28, 2022
Atmospheric ConvectionConvective parameterization is the long-lasting bottleneck of global climate modelling and one of the most difficult problems in atmospheric sciences. Uncertainty in convective parameterization is the leading cause of the widespread climate sensit...
Authors: Jialin Lin Georg A. Grell Hannah Barnes · Updated March 27, 2023
Development and evaluation of the Aerosol Forecast Member in the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP)'s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS-Aerosols v1)The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Weather Service (NWS) is on its way to deploying various operational prediction applications using the Unified Forecast System (https://ufscommunity.org/, last access: 18 June 2...
Authors: Li (Kate) Zhang Raffaele Montuoro Georg A. Grell Judy K. Henderson Haiqin Li Ravan Ahmadov · Updated July 13, 2022
Short-Term Convection-Allowing Ensemble Precipitation Forecast Sensitivity to Resolution of Initial Condition Perturbations and Central Initial StatesNine sets of 36-h, 10-member, convection-allowing ensemble (CAE) forecasts with 3-km horizontal grid spacing were produced over the conterminous United States for a 4-week period. These CAEs had identical configurations except for their initial co...
Authors: Craig S. Schwartz David C. Dowell · Updated July 19, 2022
The Evolving Role of Humans in Weather Prediction and CommunicationA series of webinars and panel discussions were conducted on the topic of the evolving role of humans in weather prediction and communication, in recognition of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the AMS. One main theme that arose was the in...
Authors: Neil A. Stuart Daniel Nietfeld · Updated August 09, 2022
Assessment of Flood Forecast Products for a Coupled Tributary-Coastal ModelCompound flooding, resulting from a combination of riverine and coastal processes, is a complex but important hazard to resolve along urbanized shorelines in the vicinity of river mouths. However, inland flooding models rarely consider oceanograph...
Authors: Robert C. Cifelli Greg Pratt · Updated August 09, 2022
Impacts of estimated plume rise on PM2.5 exceedance prediction during extreme wildfire events: A comparison of three schemes (Briggs, Freitas, and Sofiev)Plume height plays a vital role in wildfire smoke dispersion and the subsequent effects on air quality and human health. In this study, we assess the impact of different plume rise schemes on predicting the dispersion of wildfire air pollution, an...
Authors: Yunyao Li Ravan Ahmadov Georg A. Grell Saulo R. Freitas Shobha Kondragunta Youhua Tang Barry Baker Patrick C. Campbell Rick D. Saylor Daniel Tong Siqi Ma Mikhail Sofiev Xiaoyang Zhang Ralph Kahn Youhua Tang Fangjun Li · Updated December 11, 2023
Simulating wildfire emissions and plume rise using geostationary satellite fire radiative power measurements: a case study of the 2019 Williams Flats fireWe use the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model with new implementations of GOES-16 wildfire emissions and plume rise based on fire radiative power (FRP) to interpret aerosol observations during the 2019 NASA-NOAA FIREX...
Authors: Aditya Kumar Ravan Ahmadov Georg A. Grell · Updated August 16, 2022
Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) 3.0 as a versatile emissions component for atmospheric models: application in the GEOS-Chem, NASA GEOS, WRF-GC, CESM2, NOAA GEFS-Aerosol, and NOAA UFS modelsEmissions are a central component of atmospheric chemistry models. The Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) is a software component for computing emissions from a user-selected ensemble of emission inventories and algorithms. While available in ...
Authors: Haipeng Lin Daniel J. Jacob Elizabeth W. Lundgren Melissa P. Sulprizio Christoph A. Keller Thibaud M. Fritz Sebastian D. Eastham Louisa K. Emmons Patrick C. Campbell Barry Baker Rick D. Saylor Raffaele Montuoro · Updated August 23, 2022
Consistency test of precipitating ice cloud retrieval properties obtained from the observations of different instruments operating at Dome-C (Antarctica)Selected case studies of precipitating ice clouds at Dome-C (Antarctic Plateau) are used to test a new approach for the estimation of ice cloud reflectivity at 24 GHz (12.37 mm of wavelength) using ground-based far infrared spectral measurements ...
Authors: Gianluca Di Natale David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated March 30, 2023
Boundary layer moisture variability at the ARM Eastern North Atlantic ObservatoryBoundary layer moisture variability at the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site is examined at monthly and daily time scales using 5 years of ground-based observations and output from European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalys...
Authors: Maria P. Cadeddu David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 01, 2022
Inland lake temperature initialization via coupled cycling with atmospheric data assimilationApplication of lake models coupled within earth-system prediction models, especially for predictions from days to weeks, requires accurate initialization of lake temperatures. Commonly used methods to initialize lake temperatures include interpola...
Authors: Stanley G. Benjamin Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Eric P. James · Updated September 06, 2022
The Impact of Nonzenith Elevation Angles on Ground-Based Infrared Thermodynamic RetrievalsObserving thermodynamic profiles within the planetary boundary layer is essential to understanding and predicting atmospheric phenomena because of the significant exchange of sensible and latent heat between the land and atmosphere within that lay...
Authors: Jongjin Seo David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 22, 2022
Model Evaluation by Measurements from Collocated Remote Sensors in Complex TerrainModel improvement efforts involve an evaluation of changes in model skill in response to changes in model physics and parameterization. When using wind measurements from various remote sensors to determine model forecast accuracy, it is important ...
Authors: Yelena L. Pichugina robert M. banta W alan. brewer Jaymes S. Kenyon Joseph B. Olson David (Dave) D. Turner James M. wilczak Sunil Baidar Julie K. Lundquist William J. Shaw Sonia Wharton · Updated March 30, 2023
The Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) Framework v6The Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) is a collection of atmospheric physical parameterizations for use in Earth system models and a framework that couples the physics to a host model’s dynamical core. A primary goal for this effort is to fa...
Authors: Dominikus Heinzeller Ligia R. Bernardet Grant Firl Man Zhang Xia Sun · Updated March 28, 2023
Scientific challenges to characterizing the wind resource in the marine atmospheric boundary layerWith the increasing level of offshore wind energy investment, it is correspondingly important to be able to accurately characterize the wind resource in terms of energy potential as well as operating conditions affecting wind plant performance, ma...
Authors: Caroline Draxl David (Dave) D. Turner William J. Shaw Larry K. Berg Mithu Debnath Georgios Deskos Virendra Ghate Charlotte Hasager Rao Kotamarthi Jeffrey Mirocha Paytsar Muradyan William Pringle James M. wilczak · Updated March 28, 2023
Evaluation of a cloudy cold-air pool in the Columbian River Basin in different versions of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model.The accurate forecast of persistent orographic cold-air pools in numerical weather prediction models is essential for the optimal integration of wind energy into the electrical grid during these events. Model development efforts during the Second ...
Authors: Bianca Adler James M. wilczak Jaymes S. Kenyon Laura Bianco Irina V. Djalalova Joseph B. Olson David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated January 27, 2023
Regime-Specific Cloud Vertical Overlap Characteristics From Radar and Lidar Observations at the ARM SitesAbstract Climate and numerical weather prediction models require assumptions to represent the vertical distribution of subgrid-scale clouds, which have radiative transfer implications. In this study, nearly 25 years of ground-based radar and lida...
Authors: Belay B. Demoz Joseph Sedlar Laura D. Riihimaki Joseph B. Olson David (Dave) D. Turner Kathleen O. Lantz · Updated March 28, 2023
A Comparison of Model and Observed Turbulent Kinetic Energy Within Coastal Barrier Jets Forced by Landfall CyclonesThe Rapid Refresh (RR) is a 1-h data assimilation system at 13-km grid spacing, which provides mesoscale guidance for short-range forecasts. Among the many significant weather phenomena, the RUC is relied upon for the prediction of turbulence and ...
Authors: John M. Brown · Updated March 28, 2023
Performance Comparison of the A-grid and C-grid Shallow-Water Models on Icosahedral GridsDifferent methods of solving shallow water models on icosahedral grids were compared. Specifically, researchers examined the differences in accuracy from using unstaggered variables (A-grid, with mass and velocity at cell centers) compared to stag...
Authors: Jacques Middlecoff Yonggang Yu Mark W. Govett · Updated March 29, 2023
Evaluation of Aerosol Optical Depth Forecasts from NOAA's Global Aerosol Forecast Model (GEFS-Aerosols)Abstract The NWS/NCEP recently implemented a new global deterministic aerosol forecast model named the Global Ensemble Forecast Systems Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols), which is based on the Finite Volume version 3 GFS (FV3GFS). It replaced the operatio...
Authors: Partha Bhattacharjee Li Zhang Barry Baker Linlin Pan Raffaele Montuoro Georg A. Grell Jeff McQueen · Updated April 03, 2023
Factors Affecting The Rapid Recovery Of Cape On 31 March 2016 During Vortex-SoutheastAbstract In this study, we analyze various sources of CAPE in the environment and their contributions to its time tendency that will complement forecast models and operational analyses that are relatively temporally (~1 h) coarse. As a case study...
Authors: Allison T. LaFleur Robin L. Tanamachi Daniel T. Dawson David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated April 06, 2023
JEDI-Based Three-Dimensional Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System for Global Aerosol Forecasting at NCEPA three-dimensional ensemble-variational global aerosol data assimilation system based on the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) was developed for the Global Ensemble Forecast System-Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols) coupled with the God...
Authors: Bo Huang Mariusz Pagowski Samuel Trahan Cory Martin Andrew Tangborn Shobha Kondragunta Daryl Kleist · Updated April 14, 2023
Using the U.S. Climate Reference Network to Identify Biases in Near- and Subsurface Meteorological Fields in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Weather Prediction ModelThe ability of high-resolution mesoscale models to simulate near-surface and subsurface meteorological processes is critical for representing land–atmosphere feedback processes. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is a 3-km numerical we...
Authors: Temple R. Lee David (Dave) D. Turner Ronald D. Leeper Tim Wilson Howard J. Diamond Tilden p. Meyers · Updated June 08, 2023
Evaluation of Probabilistic Snow Forecasts for Winter Weather Operations at Intermountain West AirportsThis work set out to assess the performance of four forecast systems (the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF), High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE), the National Blend of Models (NBM), and the Probabilistic Snow Accumulation product (PS...
Authors: Dana M. Uden Matthew S. Wandishin Thomas W. Schlatter Michael J. Kraus · Updated June 27, 2023
Impact of Seasonal Snow-Cover Change on the Observed and Simulated State of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer in a High-Altitude Mountain ValleyThe structure and evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) under clear-sky fair weather conditions over mountainous terrain is dominated by the diurnal cycle of the surface energy balance and thus strongly depends on surface snow cover. W...
Authors: Bianca Adler James M. wilczak Laura Bianco Gijs de Boer Irina V. Djalalova Tilden p. Meyers Joseph B. Olson Joseph Sedlar David (Dave) D. Turner allen B. white Ludovic Bariteau Christopher J. Cox Michael R. Gallagher Janet M. Intrieri Timothy A. Myers Sergio Pezoa Elizabeth N. Smith · Updated June 28, 2023
Evaluation of the Near-Surface Variables in the HRRR Weather Model Using Observations from the ARM SGP SiteThe performance of version 4 of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model for near-surface variables, including wind, humidity, temperature, surface latent and sensible fluxes, and longwave and shortwave radi...
Authors: Siwei He David (Dave) D. Turner Stanley G. Benjamin Joseph B. Olson Tilden P. Meyers Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova · Updated June 28, 2023
Observations of Fog-Aerosol Interactions Over Central GreenlandSupercooled fogs can have an important radiative impact at the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet, but they are difficult to detect and our understanding of the factors that control their lifetime and radiative properties is limited by a lack of o...
Authors: Heather Guy David (Dave) D. Turner Christopher J. Cox Ian M. Brooks Penny Rowe Matthew Schupe Von P. Walden Ryan R. Neely · Updated July 10, 2023
Observed Changes in Interannual Precipitation Variability in the United StatesCharacterizing changes in precipitation patterns over time is critical for hydrologically dependent fields like water resource management and agriculture. Here, we explore observed trends in interannual precipitation variability using a suite of m...
Authors: Ryan D. Harp Daniel E. Horton · Updated July 10, 2023
Simulation of Neighborhood-Scale Air Quality With Two-Way Coupled WRF-CMAQ Over Southern Lake Michigan-Chicago RegionThe southern Lake Michigan region of the United States, home to Chicago, Milwaukee, and other densely populated Midwestern cities, frequently experiences high pollutant episodes with unevenly distributed exposure and health burdens. Using the two-...
Authors: Anastasia Montgomery Jordan Schnell Zachariah Adelman Mark Janssen Daniel E. Horton · Updated July 10, 2023
Advancing Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Forecast Verification Methods and ToolsTropical cyclone (TC) forecast verification techniques have traditionally focused on track and intensity, as these are some of the most important characteristics of TCs and are often the principle verification concerns of operational forecast cent...
Authors: Kathryn M. Newman John Gotway Ligia R. Bernardet Mrinal Biswas Tara Jensen Louisa Nance Barbara Brown · Updated July 17, 2023
Geofluid object workbench (GeoFLOW) for atmospheric dynamics in the approach to exascale: Spectral element formulation and CPU performanceA new software framework using a well-established high-order spectral element discretization is presented for solving the compressible Navier–Stokes equations for purposes of research in atmospheric dynamics in bounded and unbounded limited-area d...
Authors: Duane Rosenberg Bryan Flynt Mark W. Govett Isidora Jankov · Updated July 28, 2023
Using optimal estimation to retrieve winds from velocity-azimuth display (VAD) scans by a Doppler lidarLow-powered commercially available coherent Doppler lidar (CDL) wind profilers provide continuous measurement of vertical profiles of wind in the lower troposphere, usually close to or up to the top of the planetary boundary layer. The vertical ex...
Authors: Sunil Baidar Timothy J. Wagner David (Dave) D. Turner W alan. brewer · Updated August 10, 2023
A Methodology for Estimating the Energy and Moisture Budget of the Convective Boundary Layer Using Continuous Ground-Based Infrared Spectrometer ObservationsLand–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in both the atmospheric water and energy cycles. Changes in soil moisture and vegetation alter the partitioning of surface water and energy fluxes, influencing diurnal evolution of the planetary bo...
Authors: Ryann A. Wakefield David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 10, 2023
Proceedings of the 2023 Improving Scientific Software ConferenceThe Software Engineering Assembly (SEA) is a loosely structured group of software engineers and scientists who write scientific software, mostly but not only at NCAR and mostly but not only in the field of atmospheric sciences. The mission of the ...
Authors: Christina Holt · Updated August 22, 2023
Competing Forecast Verification: Using the Power-Divergence Statistic for Testing the Frequency of “BetterWhen testing hypotheses about which of two competing models is better, say A and B, the difference is often not significant. An alternative, complementary approach, is to measure how often model A is better than model B regardless of how slight or...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner Eric Gilleland Domingo Muñoz-Esparza · Updated August 22, 2023
Doppler Lidar Measurements of Wind Variability and LLJ Properties in Central Oklahoma during the August 2017 Land–Atmosphere Feedback ExperimentLow-level jets (LLJs) are an important nocturnal source of wind energy in the U.S. Great Plains. An August 2017 lidar-based field-measurement campaign [the Land–Atmosphere Feedback Experiment (LAFE)] studied LLJs over the central SGP site in Oklah...
Authors: Yelena L. Pichugina robert M. banta W alan. brewer David (Dave) D. Turner Volker Wulfmeyer Sunil Baidar Brian J. Carroll E. J. Strobach · Updated August 22, 2023
Sensitivities of Subseasonal Unified Forecast System Simulations to Changes in Parameterizations of Convection, Cloud Microphysics, and Planetary Boundary LayerNOAA has been developing a fully coupled Earth system model under the Unified Forecast System framework that will be responsible for global (ensemble) predictions at lead times of 0–35 days. The development has involved several prototype runs cons...
Authors: Benjamin W. Green Shan Sun Vijay Tallapragada Georg A. Grell Eric Sinsky · Updated August 30, 2023
Were Wildfires Responsible for the Unusually High Surface Ozone in 2 Colorado during 2021?Ground-level ozone (O3) was unusually high in northern Colorado in the summer of 2021 with maximum daily 8-hr average (MDA8) concentrations 6 to 8 parts-per-billion by volume (ppbv) higher than in 2019, 2020, or 2022. One or more of the monitors o...
Authors: Andrew O. Langford Ravan Ahmadov Christopher J. Senff Raul J. Alvarez II Ken C. Aikin Wayne M. Angevine Sunil Baidar W alan. brewer Steven S. Brown Eric P. James Brandi J. McCarty Scott P. Sandberg Michael L. Zucker · Updated August 30, 2023
Assimilation of Aerosol Optical Depth Into the Warn-on-Forecast System for Smoke (WoFS-Smoke)This research extends the Warn-on-Forecast System for Smoke (WoFS-Smoke) by adding the capability to assimilate aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series-R (GOES-R) satellites. The WoF...
Authors: Thomas Jones Ravan Ahmadov Eric P. James · Updated August 30, 2023
Using Object-Based Verification to Assess Improvements in Forecasts of Convective Storms Between Operational HRRR Versions 3 and 4The object-based verification procedure described in a recent paper (Duda and Turner 2021) was expanded herein to compare forecasts of composite reflectivity and 6-h precipitation objects between the two most recent operational versions of the Hig...
Authors: Jeffrey D. Duda David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 30, 2023
Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes and Impacts: Report from IWTC-XThis report synthesizes global tropical cyclone (TC) tornado research and operational practices to date. Tornadoes are one of the secondary (and lesser researched) hazards contributing to the devastation TCs leave in their wake. While gale-force w...
Authors: Benjamin W. Green Dereka Carroll-Smith Roger Edwards Lanqiang Bai A.J. Litta Xianxiang Huang Lauren Pattie Scott Overpeck Eugene W. McCaul · Updated August 30, 2023
The effect of advection on the distribution of turbulent kinetic energy and its generation in idealized tropical cyclone simulationsThe distribution of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and its budget terms is estimated in simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) of various intensities. Each simulated TC is subject to storm motion, wind shear, and oceanic coupling. Different storm inten...
Authors: Joshua B. Wadler Joseph B. Olson Joseph J. Cione David S. Nolan Lynn K. Shay · Updated August 30, 2023
Intermittency Scaling for Mixing and Dissipation in Rotating Stratified Turbulence at the Edge of InstabilityMany issues pioneered by Jackson Herring deal with how nonlinear interactions shape atmospheric dynamics. In this context, we analyze new direct numerical simulations of rotating stratified flows with a large-scale forcing, which is either random ...
Authors: Annick Pouquet Duane Rosenberg Pablo Mininni Raffaele Marino · Updated September 06, 2023
Measurements and Model Improvement: Insight into NWP Model Error Using Doppler Lidar and Other WFIP2 Measurement SystemsDoppler-lidar wind-profile measurements at three sites were used to evaluate NWP model errors from two versions of NOAA’s 3-km-grid HRRR model, to see whether updates in the latest version 4 reduced errors when compared against the original versio...
Authors: robert M. banta Yelena L. Pichugina W alan. brewer Kelly Balmes Bianca Adler Joseph Sedlar Lisa S. Darby David (Dave) D. Turner Jaymes S. Kenyon E. J. Strobach Brian J. Carroll Justin Sharp Mark T. Stoelinga Harindra J S Fernando Joel Kline · Updated December 11, 2023
A Case Study Investigating the Low Summertime CAPE Behavior in the Global Forecast SystemConvective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important index for storm forecasting. Recent versions (v15.2 and v16) of the Global Forecast System (GFS) predict lower values of CAPE during summertime in the continental United States than anal...
Authors: Xia Sun Dominikus Heinzeller Ligia R. Bernardet Linlin Pan Weiwei Li David (Dave) D. Turner John M. Brown · Updated December 26, 2023
The 30 December 2021 Colorado Front Range Windstorm and Marshall Fire: Evolution of Surface and 3D Structure, NWP Guidance, NWS Forecasts, and Decision SupportThe Marshall Fire on 30 December 2021 became the most destructive wildfire costwise in Colorado history as it evolved into a suburban firestorm in southeastern Boulder County, driven by strong winds and a snow-free and drought-influenced fuel stat...
Authors: Stanley G. Benjamin Eric P. James Edward J. Szoke Paul Schlatter John M. Brown · Updated December 26, 2023
Sensitivity of Near-Surface Variables in the RUC Land Surface Model in the Weather Research and Forecasting ModelIn this study, we investigate the parametric sensitivity of near-surface variables, such as sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, ground heat flux, hub-height wind speed and land surface temperature, to the parameters used in the rapid update cycl...
Authors: Geng Xia Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova David (Dave) D. Turner Siwei He Ben Yang Larry K. Berg Caroline Draxl · Updated December 26, 2023
Multi-Model Prediction of West Nile Virus Neuroinvasive Disease With Machine Learning for Identification of Important Regional Climatic DriversWest Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental United States (CONUS). Spatial heterogeneity in historical incidence, environmental factors, and complex ecology make prediction of spatiotemporal variation in...
Authors: Karen Holcomb J. Erin Staples Randall Nett Charles Beard Lyle Peterson Stanley G. Benjamin Benjamin W. Green Hunter Jones Michael A. Johansson · Updated December 26, 2023
Warn-on-Forecast System: From Vision to RealityAbstract In 2009, advancements in NWP and computing power inspired a vision to advance hazardous weather warnings from a warn-on-detection to a warn-on-forecast paradigm. This vision would require not only the prediction of individual thunderstor...
Authors: Pamela Heinselman Patrick Burke Louis Wicker Adam Clark John S. Kain Jidong Gao Nusrat Youssouf Patrick S. Skinner Corey K. Potvin David C. Dowell Jorge Guerra · Updated December 27, 2023
Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information: Improving Monitoring and Forecasts of Precipitation, Streamflow, and Coastal Flooding in the San Francisco Bay AreaAdvanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) is a synergistic project that combines observations and models to improve monitoring and forecasts of precipitation, streamflow, and coastal flooding in the San Francisco Bay area. As an exper...
Authors: Robert C. Cifelli David (Dave) D. Turner Trevor I. Alcott Mrinal Biswas Janice L. Bytheway Greg Pratt William R. Moninger · Updated December 27, 2023
Camera traps link population-level activity patterns with wildfire smoke events for mammals in Eastern Washington StateBackground Due to anthropogenic climate change and historic fire suppression, wildfire frequency and severity are increasing across the western United States. Whereas the indirect effects of fire on wildlife via habitat change are well studied, l...
Authors: Jessalyn Ayars Eric P. James Ravan Ahmadov · Updated December 27, 2023
Toward a Global Planetary Boundary Layer Observing System: The NASA PBL Incubation Study Team ReportA global Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) observing system is urgently needed to address fundamental PBL science questions and societal applications related to weather, climate and air quality. This PBL observing system should optimally combine new ...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated December 27, 2023
Assessing Variations in the Predictive Skill of Ensemble Snowband Forecasts with Object-Oriented Verification and Self-Organizing MapsWe used object-oriented verification and self-organizing maps (SOMs) to identify patterns in environmental parameters correlating with mesoscale snowband predictive skill by the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) system between 2017 and 2022...
Authors: Jacob Radford Gary Lackmann · Updated December 27, 2023
Verification and Model Configuration Sensitivity of Simulated ABI Radiance Forecasts With the FV3-LAM ModelThis study evaluates simulated radiance forecasts from a series of controlled experiments consisting of FV3-LAM forecasts with different configurations of model physics and vertical resolution. The forecasts were produced during the 2020 Hazardous...
Authors: Aaron Johnson Xuguang Wang Benjamin T. Blake Eric Rogers Yunheng Wang Jacob Carley Adam Clark Jeffrey R. Beck Curtis R. Alexander · Updated December 27, 2023
Population co-exposure to extreme heat and wildfire smoke pollution in California during 2020Excessive warming from climate change has increased the total wildfire burned area over the past several decades in California. This has increased population exposure to both hazardous concentrations of air pollutants from fires such as fine parti...
Authors: Noam Rosenthal Tarik Benmarhnia Ravan Ahmadov Eric P. James Miriam Marlier · Updated January 04, 2024
Heat flux assumptions contribute to overestimation of wildfire smoke injection into the free troposphereInjections of wildfire smoke plumes into the free troposphere impact air quality, yet model forecasts of injections are poor. Here, we use aircraft observations obtained during the 2019 western US wildfires (FIREX-AQ) to evaluate a commonly used s...
Authors: Laura Thapa Xinxin Ye Johnathan W. Hair Marta A. Fenn Taylor Shingler Shobha Kondragunta Charles Ichoku RoseAnne Dominguez Luke Ellison Amber Soja Emily Gargulinski Ravan Ahmadov Eric P. James Georg A. Grell Saulo R. Freitas Pablo E. Saide Gabriel Pereira · Updated January 04, 2024
Exposure of agricultural workers in California to wildfire smoke under past and future climate conditionsWildfire activity in the western U.S. has increased in frequency and severity in recent decades. Wildfire smoke emissions contribute to elevated fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations that are dangerous to public health. Due to the outdoor...
Authors: Miriam Marlier Katherine Brenner Jia Coco Liu Loretta Mickley Sierra Raby Eric P. James Ravan Ahmadov Heather Riden · Updated January 04, 2024
Estimating full longwave and shortwave radiative transfer with neural networks of varying complexity.Radiative transfer (RT) is a crucial but computationally expensive process in numerical weather/climate prediction. We develop neural networks (NN) to emulate a common RT parameterization called the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM), with the ...
Authors: Ryan Lagerquist David (Dave) D. Turner Jebb Q. Stewart Imme Ebert-Uphoff · Updated January 26, 2024
A simple and realistic aerosol emission approach for use in the Thompson-Eidhammer microphysics sscheme in the NOAA UFS Weather Model (version GSL global-24Feb 2022)A physics suite under development at NOAA's Global Systems Laboratory (GSL) includes the aerosol-aware double-moment Thompson–Eidhammer microphysics (TH-E MP) scheme. This microphysics scheme uses two aerosol variables (concentrations of water-fri...
Authors: Haiqin Li Georg A. Grell Ravan Ahmadov Li Zhang Shan Sun Jordan Schnell Ning Wang · Updated February 08, 2024
Envisioning the Future of Community PhysicsA large cadre of physics developers, model developers interested in physics-dynamics coupling, code managers, computational scientists met virtually for the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) Visioning Workshop to discuss the current status a...
Authors: Grant Firl Ligia R. Bernardet Lulin Xue Dustin Swales Laura D. Fowler Courtney Peverly Ming Xue Fanglin Yang · Updated March 25, 2024
Evaluating Elements of Risk Communication in Risk Messaging from Officials on Twitter in the 2021 Marshall fire.The Marshall fire in Boulder County, Colorado sparked and spread into nearby urban areas in an unusually fast timeframe. Without a widely used warning system to alert the public, officials used social media as one warning information outlet to enc...
Authors: Cole Vaughn · Updated March 25, 2024
Challenges of Operational Weather Forecast Verification and EvaluationOperational agencies face significant challenges related to the verification and evaluation of weather forecasts. These challenges were investigated in a series of online workshops and polls engaging operational personnel from six countries. Five ...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated April 15, 2024