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Benjamin T. Blake authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.
An Adaptive Approach for the Calculation of Ensemble Gridpoint Probabilities
Traditional ensemble probabilities are computed based on the number of members that exceed a threshold at a given point divided by the total number of members. This approach has been employed for many years in coarse-resolution models. However, convection-permitting ensembles of less than ~20 members are generally underdispersive, and spatial di...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Evaluation of Several Spatial Filtering Methods for Probabilistic CPM Ensemble Forecasts
To support the goals of a collaborative project through the US Weather Research Program (USWRP), which is focused on developing high-resolution ensemble-based hazard detection guidance tools, several convection-allowing model (CAM) ensemble post-processing methods are currently being evaluated with the operational version of the High Resolution ...
This study evaluates simulated radiance forecasts from a series of controlled experiments consisting of FV3-LAM forecasts with different configurations of model physics and vertical resolution. The forecasts were produced during the 2020 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments on the same forecast cases. The evaluation includes ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA