Forecasting High-impact Weather In Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Using A Warn-on-forecast System

Abstract

Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the greatest natural threats to life and property in the United States, since they can produce multiple hazards associated with convective storms over a wide region. Of these hazards, tornadoes within TC rainbands pose a particularly difficult forecast problem owing to their rapid evolution and their frequent occurrence coincident with additional hazards, such as flash flooding and damaging winds. During the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, hurricanes Harvey and Irma impacted the continental United States causing significant loss of life and billions of dollars in property damage (Klotzbach et al. 2018). Application of the Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) concept of short-term, probabilistic guidance of convective hazards (Stensrud et al. 2009; 2013), including the potential for tornadoes within TCs, offers the potential to provide forecasters with valuable tools for prioritizing the relative risk from multiple convective threats and effectively communicating them to the public.