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Lead Time and Displacement Error For Thunderstorm Forecasts In Terminal and Jetway Domains


This report follows upon a previous quality assessment of the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Thunderstorm Probability field. As before, the evaluation focuses on the onset and cessation of significant thunderstorm activity around 29 major U.S. airports and the ability of forecasts to accurately place thunderstorms in space and time. Extensions of the first assessment include the addition of other forecast products (i.e., the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP), the WRF Rapid Refresh (RAP) model, and the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)), as well as updates to the spatial displacement calculations and the consideration of en-route thunderstorm forecasts. In addition, a second version of the NDFD thunderstorm forecast was examined, using a lower probability threshold. The evaluation was performed on forecasts for the 2012 convective season (June-September)--

Article / Publication Data
Available Metadata
Fiscal Year
Publication Name
NOAA Technical Memorandum OAR Gsd-49
Published On
July 01, 2013


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