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Melissa A. Petty authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.
The Aviation Air Traffic Manager of today mentally integrates weather information into traffic planning decisions. When developing a traffic plan, the Traffic Manager often synthesizes the weather information from a variety of weather products, accounting for forecast accuracy and uncertainty, to issue a traffic management plan. The Traffic Mana...
Ceiling and Visibility Analysis Products Assessment
The Quality Assessment (QA) Product Development Team (PDT) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Global Systems Division (GSD) within the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) was tasked by the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA’s) Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) to complete an assessment of ceiling and...
A Method for Indentifying Convective Initiation in Forecasts and Observations
A threshold-based, object-oriented CI detection and tracking algorithm was developed and the results of its application on CIWS and HRRR products were presented. A rule set for defining and tracking of CI was developed using the CIWS analysis product with high temporal (5 min) and spatial (1 km) resolution, providing a refined approach to the un...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Assessment of Graphical Turbulence Guidance, Global (GTG-G), Part 1
The Quality Assessment Product Development Team (QA PDT) was tasked with assessing a globalversion of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG-G) as part of the transition process to operations. The GTG-G was developed by the Turbulence Product Development Team in theResearch Applications Laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
An Impact-Based Verification Approach for the TFM Convective Forecast (TCF)
In 2016 and 2017, the Forecast Impact and Quality Assessment Section of NOAA/ESRL/GSD was funded by the NWS Aviation and Space Weather Services Branch to develop a verification tool for the TFM Convective Forecast, produced by the NWS Aviation Weather Center, to replace the verification capabilities originally provided by the Real Time Verificat...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
This study looks at forecasted dynamic line ratings in southern Idaho by using data from the high resolution rapid-refresh (HRRR) model for forecasted weather conditions. The HRRR model can provide accurate 18-h forecasts with a 15-min temporal resolution. Typical static ratings used for overhead transmission lines use overly conservative assump...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
AutoNowcaster Pilot Evaluation Study
Institution Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL
Ensemble Prediction of Oceanic Convective Hazards (EPOCH) Assessment: Part II
This document is Part II of a report of the Quality Assessment Product Development Team’s (QA PDT) assessment of the Ensemble Prediction of Oceanic Convective Hazards (EPOCH). EPOCH was developed by the Convective Weather Product Development Team (CW PDT) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). EPOCH aims to forecast convection-r...
Lead Time and Displacement Error for Thunderstorm Forecasts in Terminal and Jetway Domains
This report follows upon a previous quality assessment of the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Thunderstorm Probability field. As before, the evaluation focuses on the onset and cessation of significant thunderstorm activity around 29 major U.S. airports and the ability of forecasts to accurately place thunderstorms in space and time. E...