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Recommendations For Developing Useful and Usable CONVECTION-ALLOWING Model Ensemble Information For NWS Forecasters

Abstract

U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters assess and communicate hazardous weather risks, including the likelihood of a threat and its impacts. Convection-allowing model (CAM) ensembles offer potential to aid forecasting by depicting atmospheric outcomes, including associated uncertainties, at the refined space and time scales at which hazardous weather often occurs. Little is known, however, about what CAM ensemble information is needed to inform forecasting decisions. To address this knowledge gap, participant observations and semistructured interviews were conducted with NWS forecasters from national centers and local weather forecast offices. Data were collected about forecasters’ roles and their forecasting processes, uses of model guidance and verification information, interpretations of prototype CAM ensemble products, and needs for information from CAM ensembles. Results revealed forecasters’ needs for specific types of CAM ensemble guidance, including a product that combines deterministic and probabilistic output from the ensemble as well as a product that provides map-based guidance about timing of hazardous weather threats. Forecasters also expressed a general need for guidance to help them provide impact-based decision support services. Finally, forecasters conveyed needs for objective model verification information to augment their subjective assessments and for training about using CAM ensemble guidance for operational forecasting. The research was conducted as part of an interdisciplinary research effort that integrated elicitation of forecasters’ CAM ensemble needs with model development efforts, with the aim of illustrating a robust approach for creating information for forecasters that is truly useful and usable.

Article / Publication Data
Active/Online
YES
Volume
35
Available Metadata
Accepted On
April 15, 2020
DOI ↗
Fiscal Year
NOAA IR URL ↗
Peer Reviewed
YES
Publication Name
Weather and Forecasting
Published On
August 01, 2020
Publisher Name
American Meteorological Society
Print Volume
35
Print Number
4
Page Range
1381–1406
Issue
4
Submitted On
May 24, 2019
URL ↗

Authors

Authors who have authored or contributed to this publication.