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Commercial-aircraft-based Observations For NWP: Global Coverage, Data Impacts, and COVID-19

Abstract

Weather observations from commercial aircraft constitute an essential component of the global observing system and have been shown to be the most valuable observation source for short-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems over North America. However, the distribution of aircraft observations is highly irregular in space and time. In this study, we summarize the recent state of aircraft observation coverage over the globe and provide an updated quantification of its impact upon short-range NWP forecast skill. Aircraft observation coverage is most dense over the contiguous United States and Europe, with secondary maxima in East Asia and Australia/New Zealand. As of late November 2019, 665 airports around the world had at least one daily ascent or descent profile observation; 400 of these come from North American or European airports. Flight reductions related to the COVID-19 pandemic have led to a 75% reduction in aircraft observations globally as of late April 2020. A set of data denial experiments with the latest version of the Rapid Refresh NWP system for recent winter and summer periods quantifies the statistically significant positive forecast impacts of assimilating aircraft observations. A special additional experiment excluding approximately 80% of aircraft observations reveals a reduction in forecast skill for both summer and winter amounting to 30%–60% of the degradation seen when all aircraft observations are excluded. These results represent an approximate quantification of the NWP impact of COVID-19-related commercial flight reductions, demonstrating that regional NWP guidance is degraded as a result of the decreased number of aircraft observations.

Article / Publication Data
Active/Online
YES
Status
FINAL PRINT PUBLICATION
Volume
59
Available Metadata
Accepted On
September 18, 2020
DOI ↗
Fiscal Year
NOAA IR URL ↗
Peer Reviewed
YES
Publication Name
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Published On
November 02, 2020
Final Online Publication On
November 02, 2020
Final Print Publication On
November 01, 2020
Publisher Name
American Meteorology Society
Print Volume
59
Page Range
1809–1825
Issue
11
Submitted On
January 21, 2020
Project Type
LAB SUPPORTED
URL ↗

Authors

Authors who have authored or contributed to this publication.

  • Eric P. James - lead Gsl
    Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder
    NOAA/Global Systems Laboratory
  • Stanley G. Benjamin - second Gsl
    Federal
  • Brian D. Jamison - third Gsl
    Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University
    NOAA/Global Systems Laboratory