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Eric P. James authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.
The first hourly-updated, 3-km storm-resolving model, the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh), is being run at NOAA/ESRL/GSD and is nested within the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and future replacement, the Rapid Refresh (RR). The breakthrough with the HRRR is the development of an effective technique for assimilating 3-d radar reflectivity data in...
NOAA's hourly-updated 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), run experimentally at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, has become a cornerstone for FAA's experimental ATM demonstrations and for the multi-agency Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA). A major 2010 demonstration has allowed closer scrutiny of HRRR (and related...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Improvements to Lake-Effect Snow Forecasts Using a One-Way Air–Lake Model Coupling Approach
Lake-effect convective snowstorms frequently produce high-impact, hazardous winter weather conditions downwind of the North American Great Lakes. During lake-effect snow events, the lake surfaces can cool rapidly, and in some cases, notable development of ice cover occurs. Such rapid changes in the lake-surface conditions are not accounted for i...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Recent wildfires in the U.S. and abroad have underscored the far-reaching effects that smoke from wildfires has on lives and industries, impacting air quality, aviation, solar energy generation, and more. As a result, demand has increased for reliable and accurate forecasts of smoke emanating from wildfires. To a...
The Bay Area Flood Protection Association has just recently begun funding the Physical Sciences Division and Global Systems Division (GSD) of NOAA’s Earth System Research Lab (NOAA-ESRL), as well as the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), to design and build a specialized nowcast / forecast system for the 9 Californ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Addressing Common Cloud - Radiation Errors from ~4-hour to 4-week Model Prediction
Cloud-radiation representation in models for subgrid-scale clouds is a known gap from subseasonal-to-seasonal models down to storm-scale models applied for forecast duration of only a few hours. NOAA/ESRL has been applying common physical parameterizations for scale-aware deep/shallow convection and boundary-layer mixing over this wide range of ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Commercial-Aircraft-Based Observations for NWP: Global Coverage, Data Impacts, and COVID-19
Weather observations from commercial aircraft constitute an essential component of the global observing system and have been shown to be the most valuable observation source for short-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems over North America. However, the distribution of aircraft observations is highly irregular in space and time. In t...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Wildfire smoke is one of the most significant concerns of human and environmental health, associated with its substantial impacts on air quality, weather, and climate. However, biomass burning emissions and smoke remain among the largest sources of uncertainties in air quality forecasts. In this study, we evaluate the smoke emissions and plume f...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Solar radiation is the ultimate source of energy flowing through the atmosphere; it fuels all atmospheric motions. The visible-wavelength range of solar radiation represents a significant contribution to the earth's energy budget, and visible light is a vital indicator for the composition and thermodynamic processes of the atmosphere from the sm...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A new hybrid, sigma-pressure vertical coordinate was recently added to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in an effort to reduce numerical noise in the model equations near complex terrain. Testing of this hybrid, terrain-following coordinate was undertaken in the WRF-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRR...
Stratiform Cloud-Hydrometeor Assimilation for HRRR and RAP Model Short-Range Weather Prediction
Accurate cloud and precipitation forecasts are a fundamental component of short-range data assimilation/model prediction systems such as the NOAA 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) or the 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP). To reduce cloud and precipitation spinup problems, a nonvariational assimilation technique for stratiform clouds was develope...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Wildfire smoke aerosols, once emitted, can transport over long distances and affect surface air quality in downwind regions. In New York State (NYS), fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration continues to decrease due to anthropogenic emission reductions and regulatory initiatives in recent years. Smoke aerosols, however, are projected to in...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
To advance the understanding of meteorological processes in offshore coastal regions, the spatial variability of wind profiles must be characterized and uncertainties (errors) in NWP model wind forecasts quantified. These gaps are especially critical for the new offshore wind energy industry, where wind profile measurements in the marine atmosph...
Institutions Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
In association with the Department of Energy–funded Position of Offshore Wind Energy Resources (POWER) project, we present results from compositing a 3-year dataset of 80-m (above ground level) wind forecasts from the 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model over offshore regions for the contiguous United States. The HRRR numerical weathe...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A set of observation system experiments (OSEs) over three seasons using the hourly updated Rapid Refresh (RAP) numerical weather prediction (NWP) assimilation–forecast system identifies the importance of the various components of the North American observing system for 3–12-h RAP forecasts. Aircraft observations emerge as the strongest-impact ob...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A new gridded dataset for wind and solar resource estimation over the contiguous United States has been derived from hourly updated 1-h forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 3-km model composited over a three-year period (approximately 22 000 forecast model runs). The unique datas...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Evaluation of model skill in predicting winds over the ocean was performed by comparing retrospective runs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models to shipborne Doppler lidar measurements in the Gulf of Maine, a potential region for U.S. coastal wind farm development. Deployed on board the NOAA R/V Ronald H. Brown during a 2004 fiel...
Institutions Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Diagnostic fields developed for hourly updated NOAA weather models
This document describes methods for diagnosing non-prognostic variables from explicit prognostic variables from hourly updated NOAA models. Many of these diagnostics have been developed for specific forecast applications for downstream forecast users over the years; these variables have been output from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model prior t...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
This study assesses the impact of assimilating pseudo-observations for water vapor mass derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites GOES-16 lightning data on short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) over the contiguous United States (CONUS), with an emphasis given to regions characterized by an overall poor ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Megafires and thick smoke portend big problems for migratory birds
In 2020, the fire season affecting the western United States reached unprecedented levels. The 116 fires active in September consumed nearly 20,822 km2 (https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/accessible-view/ Accessed 2020-09-29) with 80% of this footprint (16,567 km2) from 68 fires occurring within California, Oregon, and Washington. Although the 2020 fire s...
Quantifying Carbon Monoxide Emissions on the Scale of Large Wildfires
The University of Colorado Airborne Solar Occultation Flux (CU AirSOF) instrument conducted the first suborbital carbon monoxide (CO) mass flux measurements on the scale of large wildfires, showing that the destructive fires in northern California in October 2017 emitted 2040 ± 316 tonnes CO hr−1. Pyrogenic estimates from 7 satellite-based emiss...
High-resolution smoke forecasting for the 2018 Camp Fire in California
Smoke from the 2018 Camp Fire in Northern California blanketed a large part of the region for two weeks, creating poor air quality in the “unhealthy” range for millions of people. The NOAA Global System Laboratory’s HRRR-Smoke model was operating experimentally in real time during the Camp Fire. Here, output from the HRRR-Smoke model is compared...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A North American Hourly Assimilation and Model Forecast Cycle: The Rapid Refresh
The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly-updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in 2012. The need for an effective hourly-updated assimilation and modeling sys...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) and 3-km convective-allowing High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) are hourly updating weather forecast models that use a specially configured version of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and assimilate many novel and most conventional observation types on an hourly basis using Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Progress Toward Improved Solar Forecasts in Hourly Updated RAP and HRRR Forecasts
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 3km hourly updated model is now being run operationally at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). A focus on improved cloud/solar forecasts has been central to development of HRRRv2 and HRRRv3 experimental versions, along with the parent 13km Rapid Refresh (RAP). Experimental, advanc...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
An operational upgrade of the RAP and HRRR model systems at NCEP is planned for August 2016. This coordinated upgrade (RAP version 3 and HRRR version 2, RAPv3/HRRRv2) includes many enhancements to the data assimilation, model, and post-processing formulations that result in significant improvements to nearly all forecast aspects, including uppe...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A technique for model initialization using three-dimensional radar reflectivity data has been developed and applied within the NOAA 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) and 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) regional forecast systems. This technique enabled the first assimilation of radar reflectivity data for operational NOAA forecast models, criti...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a convection-allowing implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW) with hourly data assimilation that covers the conterminous United States and Alaska and runs in real time at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Implemented operationally at NOAA/NCEP in 201...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a convection-allowing implementation of the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF-ARW) that covers the conterminous United States and Alaska and runs hourly (for CONUS; every three hours for Alaska) in real time at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The high-resolution forec...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Land–Snow Data Assimilation Including a Moderately Coupled Initialization Method Applied to NWP
Initialization methods are needed for geophysical components of Earth system prediction models. These methods are needed from medium-range to decadal predictions and also for short-range Earth system forecasts in support of safety (e.g., severe weather), economic (e.g., energy), and other applications. Strongly coupled land–atmosphere data assim...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Prototype of a Warn-on-Forecast System for Smoke (WoFS-Smoke)
This research begins the process of creating an ensemble-based forecast system for smoke aerosols generated from wildfires using a modified version of the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). The existing WoFS has proven effective in generating short-term (0–3 h) probabilistic forecasts of high-impact weather ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Abstract Image Carbonaceous emissions from wildfires are a dynamic mixture of gases and particles that have important impacts on air quality and climate. Emissions that feed atmospheric models are estimated using burned area and fire radiative power (FRP) methods that rely on satellite products. These approaches show wide variability and have l...
Inland lake temperature initialization via coupled cycling with atmospheric data assimilation
Application of lake models coupled within earth-system prediction models, especially for predictions from days to weeks, requires accurate initialization of lake temperatures. Commonly used methods to initialize lake temperatures include interpolation of global sea-surface temperature (SST) analyses to inland lakes, daily satellite-based observa...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Were Wildfires Responsible for the Unusually High Surface Ozone in 2 Colorado during 2021?
Ground-level ozone (O3) was unusually high in northern Colorado in the summer of 2021 with maximum daily 8-hr average (MDA8) concentrations 6 to 8 parts-per-billion by volume (ppbv) higher than in 2019, 2020, or 2022. One or more of the monitors on the Colorado Front Range exceeded the 2015 U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 7...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Assimilation of Aerosol Optical Depth Into the Warn-on-Forecast System for Smoke (WoFS-Smoke)
This research extends the Warn-on-Forecast System for Smoke (WoFS-Smoke) by adding the capability to assimilate aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series-R (GOES-R) satellites. The WoFS is a rapidly cycling, ensemble-based analysis and forecasting system designed to generate short te...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The Marshall Fire on 30 December 2021 became the most destructive wildfire costwise in Colorado history as it evolved into a suburban firestorm in southeastern Boulder County, driven by strong winds and a snow-free and drought-influenced fuel state. The fire was driven by a strong downslope windstorm that maintained its intensity for nearly 11 h...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Where and when wildfires occur, what pollutants they emit, how the chemistry of smoke changes in the atmosphere, and what impact this air pollution has on human health and well-being are questions explored across different scientific disciplines. Landscape Fire, Smoke, and Health: Linking Biomass Burning Emissions to Human Well-Being is desig...
Population co-exposure to extreme heat and wildfire smoke pollution in California during 2020
Excessive warming from climate change has increased the total wildfire burned area over the past several decades in California. This has increased population exposure to both hazardous concentrations of air pollutants from fires such as fine particulate matter (smoke PM2.5) and extreme heat events. Exposure to PM2.5 and extreme heat are individu...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Injections of wildfire smoke plumes into the free troposphere impact air quality, yet model forecasts of injections are poor. Here, we use aircraft observations obtained during the 2019 western US wildfires (FIREX-AQ) to evaluate a commonly used smoke plume rise parameterization in two atmospheric chemistry-transport models (WRF-Chem and HRRR-Sm...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Wildfire activity in the western U.S. has increased in frequency and severity in recent decades. Wildfire smoke emissions contribute to elevated fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations that are dangerous to public health. Due to the outdoor and physically demanding nature of their work, agricultural workers are particularly vulnerable to ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The results are in good agreement with observations recorded during the event. Extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Background Due to anthropogenic climate change and historic fire suppression, wildfire frequency and severity are increasing across the western United States. Whereas the indirect effects of fire on wildlife via habitat change are well studied, less is known about the impacts of wildfire smoke on animal health and behavior. In this study, we ex...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Precipitation Proxies for Flash Flooding: A Seven-Year Analysis over the Contiguous United States
Flash flooding remains a challenging prediction problem, which is exacerbated by the lack of a universally accepted definition of the phenomenon. In this article, we extend prior analysis to examine the correspondence of various combinations of quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) and precipitation thresholds to observed occurrences of fl...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA