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Patrick S. Skinner authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.
Object-Based Verification of a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System
An object-based verification methodology for the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles (NEWS-e) has been developed and applied to 32 cases between December 2015 and June 2017. NEWS-e forecast objects of composite reflectivity and 30-min updraft helicity swaths are matched to corresponding reflectivity and rotation track objects...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The forcing and origins of an internal rear-flank downdraft (RFD) momentum surge observed by the second Verification of the Origin of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) within a supercell occurring near Dumas, Texas, on 18 May 2010 is assessed through ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) storm-scale analyses. EnKF analyses are produced every 2 ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Warn-on-Forecast System: From Vision to Reality
Abstract In 2009, advancements in NWP and computing power inspired a vision to advance hazardous weather warnings from a warn-on-detection to a warn-on-forecast paradigm. This vision would require not only the prediction of individual thunderstorms and their attributes but the likelihood of their occurrence in time and space. During the last de...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA