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Paul J. Schultz authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.
Analysis of precipitation forecasts from the NCEP global forecast system
Satellite observations extend precipitation measurements from limited-area land surface analyses to a nearly global view of precipitation. As a result, we are able to verify quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from global forecasts. In this study, QPF from the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) global forecast system (GF...
Evaluation of high-resolution WRF ARW Model Simulations of atmospheric river events during HMT-2006
Evaluation of high-resolution WRF ARW model simulations of atmospheric river events during HMT-2006
Scale-dependent precipitation forecast error in the GFS
Precipitation has been one of the most difficult forecast fields for modern numerical weather prediction (NWP). The precipitation forecast skill in an NWP model has lagged considerably behind skills of many other meteorological fields, such as temperature, winds, etc. To improve this situation, we must first understand the characteristics of pre...
Time-frequency localization and long- and short-term memories in the GFS precipitation forecasts
Precipitation possesses its own temporal variability, such as seasonal and diurnal cycles. It is important for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to correctly capture these natural variabilities. Meanwhile, due to uncertainty in the forecast model, there are day-to-day random forecast errors. Hence, a given time series of precipitation fo...
The NOAA Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT)West 2006 program focuses on short-range (0-12 h) ensemble forecasts over the American River Basin (ARB) in California. Several high-resolution (1 km and 3 km) mesoscale models are operated by the NOAA/ESRL/Global Systems Division during December 2005- March 2006. The model initialization is provided by ...
FHWA's maintenance decision support system project - Results and recommendations
The Federal Highway Administration's Office of Transportation Operations Road Weather Management Program began a project in FY 1999 to develop a prototype winter road maintenance decision support system (MDSS). The MDSS capabilities are based on feedback received by the FHWA in 2001 from maintenance managers at a number of state depar...
An ensemble strategy for road weather applications
In 1999 the Federal Highways Administration (FHWA) initiated a 5-year program to explore the applicability of technologies developed at national research laboratories to the problem of winter road maintenance. The first specific goal was to develop an automated decision support system to generate snow plowing and pavement chemical application gu...
VERIFICATION OF THE FSL ENSEMBLE OF MESOSCALE MODELS USED FOR A WINTER WEATHER APPLICATION
A set of microphysics equations is scaled based on the convective length and velocity scales. Comparisons are made among the dynamical transport and various microphysical processes. From the scaling analysis, it becomes apparent which parameterized microphysical processes present off-scaled influences in the integration of the set of microphysi...
Using ensembles of numerical weather forecasts for road weather prediction
VERIFICATION OF IHOP MODEL RUNS OF MM5 AND WRF WITH DIABATIC INITIALIZATION
EXPLICIT INITIALIZATION OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN MESOSCALE FORECAST MODELS
The LAPS Water in All Phases Analysis: the Approach and Impacts on Numerical Prediction
Status and prospects for local data analysis and mesoscale modeling in AWIPS
NEAR OPERATIONAL SHORT-TERM FORECASTS FROM TWO MESOSCALE MODELS
Pseudo-Precipitation: A Continuous Precipitation Variable
The discontinuous and highly nonlinear nature of precipitation makes its statistical manipulation, like the reduction of bias in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) or probabilistic QPF (PQPF) problematic. To ease the statistical post-processing of precipitation, a new continuous variable, pseudo-precipitation (PP) is introduced. Pseudo- ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Stratospheric intrusions, the Santa Ana winds, and wildland fires in Southern California
The Santa Ana winds of Southern California have long been associated with wildland fires that can adversely affect air quality and lead to loss of life and property. These katabatic winds are driven primarily by thermal gradients but can be exacerbated by northerly flow associated with upper level troughs passing through the western U.S. In this...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The FX-CAVE System Demonstration for the National Interagency Fire Weather Program
The Predictive Services Units (PSU) at the Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACC) and at the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) have the responsibility of predicting weather and climate patterns to fulfill their mission of supporting the wildland fire community and others with information and decision support products. The U. S. Depart...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA