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The Subseasonal Experiment (subx): A Multimodel Subseasonal Prediction Experiment

Abstract

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a multimodel subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced 17 years of retrospective (re)forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The reforecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal to seasonal predictability and predictions. The SubX models show skill for temperature and precipitation 3 weeks ahead of time in specific regions. The SubX multimodel ensemble mean is more skillful than any individual model overall. Skill in simulating the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), two sources of subseasonal predictability, is also evaluated, with skillful predictions of the MJO 4 weeks in advance and of the NAO 2 weeks in advance. SubX is also able to make useful contributions to operational forecast guidance at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, SubX provides information on the potential for extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones, which can help emergency management and aid organizations to plan for disasters.

Article / Publication Data
Active/Online
YES
Volume
100
Available Metadata
Accepted On
October 24, 2019
DOI ↗
Fiscal Year
NOAA IR URL ↗
Peer Reviewed
YES
Publication Name
Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society
Published On
October 01, 2019
Publisher Name
American Meteorological Society
Print Volume
100
Print Number
10
Page Range
2043–2060
Issue
10
URL ↗

Authors

Authors who have authored or contributed to this publication.

  • Kathy Pegion - lead Gsl
    Under Contract to NOAA/Global Systems Laboratory
    325 Broadway, Boulder, Colorado
  • Shan Sun - twenty-fifth Gsl
    Federal
  • Stanley G. Benjamin - twenty-six Gsl
    Federal
  • Benjamin W. Green - twenty-seven Gsl
    Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder
    NOAA/Global Systems Laboratory
  • Rainer Bleck - twenty-eight Gsl
    Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder
    NOAA/Global Systems Laboratory