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Shan Sun authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.
Progress on FIM development toward membership in the North American Ensemble Forecast System
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Addressing Common Cloud - Radiation Errors from ~4-hour to 4-week Model Prediction
Cloud-radiation representation in models for subgrid-scale clouds is a known gap from subseasonal-to-seasonal models down to storm-scale models applied for forecast duration of only a few hours. NOAA/ESRL has been applying common physical parameterizations for scale-aware deep/shallow convection and boundary-layer mixing over this wide range of ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Aerosol Impact on Seasonal Prediction Using FIM-Chem-iHYCOM Coupled Model
The coupled atmosphere, ocean and chemistry system using the global FIM-Chem-iHYCOM model is applied to subseasonal to seasonal prediction to investigate the aerosol impact on the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. The sources and sinks for aerosols, fire and anthripogenic emissions are prescribed. We compare the model sensitivity with various...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850–2014) With GISS‐E2.1
Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850–2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System ModelE2.1. The GISS‐E2.1 ensembles are more sensitive to greenhouse gas forcing than their CMIP...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Giss-e2.1: Configurations and Climatology
This paper describes the GISS-E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS-E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model components, while keeping atmospheric resolution the same. Model skill when compared to mode...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multimodel Subseasonal Prediction Experiment
The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a multimodel subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced 17 years of retrospective (re)forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The reforecasts and forecasts are archived at ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The atmospheric hydrostatic Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM), developed for medium-range weather prediction, provides a unique three-dimensional grid structure—a quasi-uniform icosahedral horizontal grid and an adaptive quasi-Lagrangian vertical coordinate. To extend the FIM framework to subseasonal time scales, an icosahedral-grid renditi...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Subseasonal forecast skill of the global hydrostatic atmospheric Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM) coupled to an icosahedral-grid version of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (iHYCOM) is evaluated through 32-day predictions initialized weekly using a four-member time-lagged ensemble over the 16-yr period 1999–2014. Systematic biases in fore...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Evaluation of MJO Predictive Skill in Multiphysics and Multimodel Global Ensembles
Monthlong hindcasts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) from the atmospheric Flow-following Icosahedral Model coupled with an icosahedral-grid version of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (FIM-iHYCOM), and from the coupled Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), are evaluated over the 12-yr period 1999–2010. Two sets of FIM-iHYCOM hindcas...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A hydrostatic global weather prediction model based on an icosahedral horizontal grid and a hybrid terrain-following/isentropic vertical coordinate is described. The model is an extension to three spatial dimensions of a previously developed, icosahedral, shallow-water model featuring user-selectable horizontal resolution and employing indirect ...
Institutions Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Modeling the QBO—Improvements resulting from higher-model vertical resolution
Using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model, it is shown that with proper choice of the gravity wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and relatively fine vertical layering of at least 500 m in the upper troposphere?lower stratosphere (UTLS), a realistic stratospheric quasi?biennial oscillation (QBO) is modeled ...
Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958–2007 period from twenty global ocean – sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Da...
Institution National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR
Three Types of Indian Ocean Dipoles
Using observational data and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model outputs [the preindustrial (PI) control run of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) and historical simulations of 17 CMIP5 models], Indian Ocean dipoles (IODs) with a peak in fall are categorized into three types. The first type is cl...
NOAA has been developing a fully coupled Earth system model under the Unified Forecast System framework that will be responsible for global (ensemble) predictions at lead times of 0–35 days. The development has involved several prototype runs consisting of bimonthly initializations over a 7-yr period for a total of 168 cases. This study leverage...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A physics suite under development at NOAA's Global Systems Laboratory (GSL) includes the aerosol-aware double-moment Thompson–Eidhammer microphysics (TH-E MP) scheme. This microphysics scheme uses two aerosol variables (concentrations of water-friendly aerosol (WFA) and ice-friendly aerosol (IFA) numbers) to include interactions with some of the...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The Los Alamos Community Ice CodE (CICE) sea ice model is being tested in standalone mode to identify biases that limit its suitability for seasonal prediction, where it is driven by atmospheric forcings from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and a built-in mixed-layer ocean model in CICE. The initial conditions for the sea ice ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA