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Benjamin W. Green authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.
Addressing Common Cloud - Radiation Errors from ~4-hour to 4-week Model Prediction
Cloud-radiation representation in models for subgrid-scale clouds is a known gap from subseasonal-to-seasonal models down to storm-scale models applied for forecast duration of only a few hours. NOAA/ESRL has been applying common physical parameterizations for scale-aware deep/shallow convection and boundary-layer mixing over this wide range of ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction
Climate prediction on subseasonal to decadal time scales is a rapidly advancing field that is synthesizing improvements in climate process understanding and modeling to improve and expand operational services worldwide. Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal timescales can have enormous social, economic and environmental imp...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A Description of the MYNN Surface-Layer Scheme
The surface-layer scheme controls the degree of coupling between the model surface and the atmosphere. Traditionally, surface-layer schemes have been developed to be paired with certain planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, but this singular pairing is too narrow in scope for modern physics suites, since the surfac...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multimodel Subseasonal Prediction Experiment
The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a multimodel subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced 17 years of retrospective (re)forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The reforecasts and forecasts are archived at ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is strongly influenced by surface fluxes of momentum and moist enthalpy (typically parameterized in terms of “exchange coefficients” Cd and Ck, respectively). The behavior of Cd and Ck remains quite uncertain especially in high wind conditions over the ocean; moreover, moist enthalpy flux is extremely sensitive to...
The atmospheric hydrostatic Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM), developed for medium-range weather prediction, provides a unique three-dimensional grid structure—a quasi-uniform icosahedral horizontal grid and an adaptive quasi-Lagrangian vertical coordinate. To extend the FIM framework to subseasonal time scales, an icosahedral-grid renditi...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Subseasonal forecast skill of the global hydrostatic atmospheric Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM) coupled to an icosahedral-grid version of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (iHYCOM) is evaluated through 32-day predictions initialized weekly using a four-member time-lagged ensemble over the 16-yr period 1999–2014. Systematic biases in fore...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Evaluation of MJO Predictive Skill in Multiphysics and Multimodel Global Ensembles
Monthlong hindcasts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) from the atmospheric Flow-following Icosahedral Model coupled with an icosahedral-grid version of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (FIM-iHYCOM), and from the coupled Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), are evaluated over the 12-yr period 1999–2010. Two sets of FIM-iHYCOM hindcas...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
NOAA has been developing a fully coupled Earth system model under the Unified Forecast System framework that will be responsible for global (ensemble) predictions at lead times of 0–35 days. The development has involved several prototype runs consisting of bimonthly initializations over a 7-yr period for a total of 168 cases. This study leverage...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes and Impacts: Report from IWTC-X
This report synthesizes global tropical cyclone (TC) tornado research and operational practices to date. Tornadoes are one of the secondary (and lesser researched) hazards contributing to the devastation TCs leave in their wake. While gale-force winds and storm surge produce the majority of damage and fatalities globally, TC tornadoes also pose ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental United States (CONUS). Spatial heterogeneity in historical incidence, environmental factors, and complex ecology make prediction of spatiotemporal variation in WNV transmission challenging. Machine learning provides promising tools for identification of impor...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA