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Improvements To Lake-effect Snow Forecasts Using A ONE-WAY AIR–LAKE Model Coupling Approach

Abstract

Lake-effect convective snowstorms frequently produce high-impact, hazardous winter weather conditions downwind of the North American Great Lakes. During lake-effect snow events, the lake surfaces can cool rapidly, and in some cases, notable development of ice cover occurs. Such rapid changes in the lake-surface conditions are not accounted for in existing operational weather forecast models, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, resulting in reduced performance of lake-effect snow forecasts. As a milestone to future implementations in the Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) and HRRR, this study examines the one-way linkage between the hydrodynamic-ice model [the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model coupled with the unstructured grid version of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (FVCOM-CICE), the physical core model of GLOFS] and the atmospheric model [the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, the physical core model of HRRR]. The realistic representation of lake-surface cooling and ice development or its fractional coverage during three lake-effect snow events was achieved by feeding the FVCOM-CICE simulated lake-surface conditions to WRF (using a regional configuration of HRRR), resulting in the improved simulation of the turbulent heat fluxes over the lakes and resulting snow water equivalent in the downwind areas. This study shows that the one-way coupling is a practical approach that is well suited to the operational environment, as it requires little to no increase in computational resources yet can result in improved forecasts of regional weather and lake conditions.

Article / Publication Data
Active/Online
YES
Volume
21
Available Metadata
Accepted On
August 17, 2020
DOI ↗
Fiscal Year
NOAA IR URL ↗
Peer Reviewed
YES
Publication Name
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Published On
November 01, 2020
Publisher Name
American Meteorological Society
Print Volume
21
Print Number
12
Page Range
2813–2828
Issue
12
Submitted On
March 31, 2020
Project Type
LAB SUPPORTED
URL ↗

Authors

Authors who have authored or contributed to this publication.