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Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.
Evaluation of forest snow processes models (SnowMIP2)
Thirty-three snowpack models of varying complexity and purpose were evaluated across a wide range of hydrometeorological and forest canopy conditions at five Northern Hemisphere locations, for up to two winter snow seasons. Modeled estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) or depth were compared to observations at forest and open sites at each lo...
IMPROVED MOISTURE AND PBL INITIALIZATION IN THE RUC USING METAR DATA
The representation of snow in land surface schemes: Results from PILPS 2(d)
Twenty-one land surface schemes (LSSs) performed simulations forced by 18 yr of observed meteorological data from a grassland catchment at Valdai. Russia, as part of the Project for the Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) Phase 2(d). In this paper the authors examine the simulation of snow. In comparison with obser...
Simulations of a boreal grassland hydrology at Valdai, Russia: PILPS phase 2(D)
The Project for the Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) aims to improve understanding and modeling of land surface processes. PILPS phase 2(d) uses a set of meteorological and hydrological data spanning 18 yr (1966-83) from a grassland catchment at the Valdai water-balance research site in Russia. A suite of stan...
Assessment of land-surface energy budgets from regional and global models
The surface energy budgets estimated from the 0- to 12-hour forecasts of three operational model suites and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis are analyzed at local to continental scales. The models are (1) the Eta model, (2) the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction Sys...
The use of satellite information in correcting model-predicted clouds
Progress on FIM development toward membership in the North American Ensemble Forecast System
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Improvements to Lake-Effect Snow Forecasts Using a One-Way Air–Lake Model Coupling Approach
Lake-effect convective snowstorms frequently produce high-impact, hazardous winter weather conditions downwind of the North American Great Lakes. During lake-effect snow events, the lake surfaces can cool rapidly, and in some cases, notable development of ice cover occurs. Such rapid changes in the lake-surface conditions are not accounted for i...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Addressing Common Cloud - Radiation Errors from ~4-hour to 4-week Model Prediction
Cloud-radiation representation in models for subgrid-scale clouds is a known gap from subseasonal-to-seasonal models down to storm-scale models applied for forecast duration of only a few hours. NOAA/ESRL has been applying common physical parameterizations for scale-aware deep/shallow convection and boundary-layer mixing over this wide range of ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Snow cover duration trends observed at sites and predicted by multiple models
The 30-year simulations of seasonal snow cover in 22 physically based models driven with bias-corrected meteorological reanalyses are examined at four sites with long records of snow observations. Annual snow cover durations differ widely between models, but interannual variations are strongly correlated because of the common driving data. No si...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Scientific and human errors in a snow model intercomparison
Twenty-seven models participated in the Earth System Model - Snow Model Intercomparison Project (ESM-SnowMIP), the most data-rich MIP dedicated to snow modelling. Our findings do not support the hypothesis advanced by previous snow MIPs: evaluating models against more variables, and providing evaluation datasets extended temporally and spatially...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A new hybrid, sigma-pressure vertical coordinate was recently added to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in an effort to reduce numerical noise in the model equations near complex terrain. Testing of this hybrid, terrain-following coordinate was undertaken in the WRF-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRR...
A Description of the MYNN Surface-Layer Scheme
The surface-layer scheme controls the degree of coupling between the model surface and the atmosphere. Traditionally, surface-layer schemes have been developed to be paired with certain planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, but this singular pairing is too narrow in scope for modern physics suites, since the surfac...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Subgrid variability of snow is important in studying surface-atmosphere interactions as it affects grid-scale processes. However, this dynamic variability is currently not well-represented in most land-surface models (LSMs). A stochastic snow model using the Fokker-Planck Equation (FPE) has been developed specifically for representing subgrid va...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Subgrid variability of solar downward radiation at the surface can be important in estimating subgrid variability of other radiation-driven variables, such as snowmelt and soil temperature. However, this information is ignored in current hydrological and weather prediction models as only the mean downward solar radiation of model grid is used. I...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Stochastically Perturbed Parameterizations in a HRRR-Based Ensemble
A stochastically perturbed parameterization (SPP) approach that spatially and temporally perturbs parameters and variables in the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino planetary boundary layer scheme (PBL) and introduces initialization perturbations to soil moisture in the Rapid Update Cycle land surface model was developed within the High Resolution Ra...
Institutions National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
ESM-SnowMIP: assessing snow models and quantifying snow-related climate feedbacks
This paper describes ESM-SnowMIP, an international coordinated modelling effort to evaluate current snow schemes, including snow schemes that are included in Earth system models, in a wide variety of settings against local and global observations. The project aims to identify crucial processes and characteristics that need to be improved in snow...
A stochastic parameter perturbation (SPP) scheme consisting of spatially and temporally varying perturbations of uncertain parameters in the Grell–Freitas convective scheme and the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino planetary boundary scheme was developed within the Rapid Refresh ensemble system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Al...
Institutions National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A North American Hourly Assimilation and Model Forecast Cycle: The Rapid Refresh
The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly-updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in 2012. The need for an effective hourly-updated assimilation and modeling sys...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A hydrostatic global weather prediction model based on an icosahedral horizontal grid and a hybrid terrain-following/isentropic vertical coordinate is described. The model is an extension to three spatial dimensions of a previously developed, icosahedral, shallow-water model featuring user-selectable horizontal resolution and employing indirect ...
Institutions Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) and 3-km convective-allowing High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) are hourly updating weather forecast models that use a specially configured version of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and assimilate many novel and most conventional observation types on an hourly basis using Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), both operational at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) use the Thompson et al. mixed-phase bulk cloud microphysics scheme. This scheme permits predicted surface precipitation to simultaneously consist of rain, snow, and graupel at the same location under c...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Because of limitations of variational and ensemble data assimilation schemes, resulting analysis fields exhibit some noise from imbalance in subsequent model forecasts. Controlling finescale noise is desirable in the NOAA’s Rapid Refresh (RAP) assimilation/forecast system, which uses an hourly data assimilation cycle. Hence, a digital filter ini...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The land surface model (LSM) described in this manuscript was originally developed as part of the NOAA Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model development effort; with ongoing modifications, it is now used as an option for the WRF community model. The RUC model and its WRF-based NOAA successor, the Rapid Refresh (RAP), are hourly updated and have an emph...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
An operational upgrade of the RAP and HRRR model systems at NCEP is planned for August 2016. This coordinated upgrade (RAP version 3 and HRRR version 2, RAPv3/HRRRv2) includes many enhancements to the data assimilation, model, and post-processing formulations that result in significant improvements to nearly all forecast aspects, including uppe...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A technique for model initialization using three-dimensional radar reflectivity data has been developed and applied within the NOAA 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) and 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) regional forecast systems. This technique enabled the first assimilation of radar reflectivity data for operational NOAA forecast models, criti...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a convection-allowing implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW) with hourly data assimilation that covers the conterminous United States and Alaska and runs in real time at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Implemented operationally at NOAA/NCEP in 201...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a convection-allowing implementation of the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF-ARW) that covers the conterminous United States and Alaska and runs hourly (for CONUS; every three hours for Alaska) in real time at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The high-resolution forec...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Land–Snow Data Assimilation Including a Moderately Coupled Initialization Method Applied to NWP
Initialization methods are needed for geophysical components of Earth system prediction models. These methods are needed from medium-range to decadal predictions and also for short-range Earth system forecasts in support of safety (e.g., severe weather), economic (e.g., energy), and other applications. Strongly coupled land–atmosphere data assim...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Inland lake temperature initialization via coupled cycling with atmospheric data assimilation
Application of lake models coupled within earth-system prediction models, especially for predictions from days to weeks, requires accurate initialization of lake temperatures. Commonly used methods to initialize lake temperatures include interpolation of global sea-surface temperature (SST) analyses to inland lakes, daily satellite-based observa...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The performance of version 4 of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model for near-surface variables, including wind, humidity, temperature, surface latent and sensible fluxes, and longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes, is examined over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SG...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
In this study, we investigate the parametric sensitivity of near-surface variables, such as sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, ground heat flux, hub-height wind speed and land surface temperature, to the parameters used in the rapid update cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) during a winter and summer periods. The model simulations are compa...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Blowing snow is a hazard for motorists because it may rapidly reduce visibility. Numerical weather prediction models in the United States do not capture the movement of snow once it reaches the ground, but visibility reductions due to blowing snow can be diagnosed based on model-predicted land surface and environmental conditions that correlate ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA