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Mariusz Pagowski authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.
This study presents a system to predict high pollution events that develop in connection with enhanced subsidence due to coastal lows, particularly in winter over Santiago de Chile. An accurate forecast of these episodes is of interest since the local government is entitled by law to take actions in advance to prevent public exposure to PM10 con...
Several air quality forecasting ensembles were created from seven models, running in real-time during the 2006 Texas Air Quality (TEXAQS-II) experiment. These multi-model ensembles incorporated a diverse set of meteorological models, chemical mechanisms, and emission inventories. Evaluation of individual model and ensemble forecasts of surface o...
Families of solitary waves (solitons) associated with two atmospheric bores on the same day were observed by an unprecedented number of ground-based and airborne profiling systems during the International H2O Project (IHOP). In addition, a very high-resolution numerical weather prediction model initialized with real data was used with success to...
Families of solitary waves (''solitons'') associated with two atmospheric bores on the same day were observed by an unprecedented number of ground-based and airborne profiling systems during the International H2O Project (IHOP). In addition, a very high-resolution numerical weather prediction model initialized with real data was used with succ...
A satellite-based fog detection scheme using screen air temperature
A warm fog detection (air temperature > -5 degrees C) algorithm using a combination of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-12 (GOES-12) observations and screen temperature data based on an operational numerical model has been developed. This algorithm was tested on a large number of daytime cases during the spring and summ...
Fog research: A review of past achievements and future perspectives
The scientific community that includes meteorologists, physical scientists, engineers, medical doctors, biologists, and environmentalists has shown interest in a better understanding of fog for years because of its effects on, directly or indirectly, the daily life of human beings. The total economic losses associated with the impact of the pres...
Improved Vertical Covariance Estimates for Ensemble-Filter Assimilation of Near-Surface Observations
Strategies to improve covariance estimates for ensemble-based assimilation of near-surface observations in atmospheric models are explored. It is known that localization of covariance estimates can improve conditioning of covariance matrices in the assimilation process by removing spurious elements and increasing the rank of the matrix. Vertical...
Due to the implicit character of flux-profile relationships in the atmospheric surface layer, in mesoscale modeling it is common practice to calculate fluxes of momentum, heat, and moisture with approximate formulas. The study presented here shows that a Newton-Raphson iterative procedure to calculate surface fluxes using broadly acce...
One-way coupling of an atmospheric and a hydrologic model in Colorado
This paper examines the accuracy of high-resolution nested mesoscale model simulations of surface climate. The nesting capabilities of the atmospheric fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) were used to create high-resolution, 5-yr climate simulations ...
Solitary waves are a class of gravity waves consisting of a single elevation of finite amplitude that, owing to a balance between nonlinearity and dispersion, propagates without change of form. A family of solitary waves, which is termed a “soliton”, forms as the natural consequence of the evolution of a bore – a type of gravity wave (hydraulic ...
Reevaluating the Equitable Threat Score of Forecasts using the Economic Value Concept
Behavior of WRF BL Schemes and Land-Surface Models in 1-D Simulations during BAMEX
Solitary waves are a class of gravity waves consisting of a single elevation of finite amplitude that, owing to a balance between nonlinearity and dispersion, propagates without change of form. A family of solitary waves, which is termed a “soliton”, forms as the natural consequence of the evolution of a bore – a type of gravity wave (hydraulic ...
Analysis and Modeling of an extremely dense fog event in southern Ontario
In this study, a dense fog episode that occurred near Windsor, Ontario, Canada, on 3 September 1999 is investigated. The fog patch, with a spatial scale of several kilometers, reduced visibility on a major highway to a few meters and led to a series of collisions and loss of life. Satellite imager y and surface obser vations are used to analy...
This study presents the results of an evaluation of the US EPA air quality modelling system MODELS 3/CMAQ/MM5 during episodes of high particulate matter over Eastern North America. Modelling results for PM2.5, PM10, secondary aerosols and precursor gases were compared with observed data derived from a number of monitoring networks operated in th...
The International H20 Project (IHOP_2002) offered an extensive array of ground-based and airborne remote sensing systems for producing what is probably the most complete set of observations ever collected of the evolving structure and dynamics of bores solitons, and solitary waves. Data were collected of a dual bore event on 4 June 2002 by space...
This study applies the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) 3D-Var assimilation tool originally developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to improve surface PM2.5 predictions over the contiguous United States (CONUS) by assimilating aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface PM2.5 in version 5.1 of the Community Mu...
Institutions National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The forecasting system based on the WRF-Chem model and the GSI assimilation tool was applied for the first time over Europe. We aimed to evaluate the differences in impact of 3D-Var assimilation of PM2.5 ground base concentrations to different aerosol chemical schemes (GOCART and MADE/SORGAM) on modelled PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations and to asse...
The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Three-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system is extended to treat the MOSAIC aerosol model in WRF-Chem, and to be capable of assimilating surface PM2.5 concentrations. The coupled GSI-WRF-Chem system is applied to reproduce aerosol levels over China during an extremely polluted wint...
Data assimilation is used in atmospheric chemistry models to improve air quality forecasts, construct re-analyses of three-dimensional chemical (including aerosol) concentrations and perform inverse modeling of input variables or model parameters (e.g., emissions). Coupled chemistry meteorology models (CCMM) are atmospheric chemistry models that...
This study focuses on the importance of initial conditions to air-quality predictions. We ran assimilation experiments using the WRF-Chem model and grid-point statistical interpolation (GSI), for a 9-day severe particulate matter pollution event that occurred in Shanghai in December 2013. In this application, GSI used a three-dimensional variati...
The Fires, Asian, and Stratospheric Transport–Las Vegas Ozone Study (FAST-LVOS)
he Fires, Asian, and Stratospheric Transport–Las Vegas Ozone Study (FAST-LVOS) was conducted in May and June of 2017 to study the transport of ozone (O3) to Clark County, Nevada, a marginal non-attainment area in the southwestern United States (SWUS). This 6-week (20 May–30 June 2017) field campaign used lidar, ozonesonde, aircraft, and in situ ...
Institutions Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A three-dimensional ensemble-variational global aerosol data assimilation system based on the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) was developed for the Global Ensemble Forecast System-Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols) coupled with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model at the National Centers for Environmen...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA