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Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL



Coresponding Articles: 56

Articles that are assoicated with Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL

Devised scheme to correct GOES bias in GOES operational total precipitable water products

The National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) Geostationary Observational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-derived, total precipitable water (TPW) vapor product is routinely produced at NESDIS for Advanced Weather Intera...
Authors: Kirk L. Holub seth I. gutman daniel L. birkenheuer susan R. sahm · Updated March 15, 2021

Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) version 2.3

Results of an evaluation of GTG version 2.3 (GTG2.3) are presented in this report. The algorithm was analyzed from 1 November 2005 through 31 January 2006. Additionally, GTG2.3 was compared to several existing operational turbulence forecasts incl...
Authors: Jennifer L. Mahoney · Updated March 15, 2021

Quality Assessment Report National Convective Weather Forecast 2 (NCWF-2)

This report summarizes a statistical evaluation of the quality of the National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF-2) product, developed by the Convective Weather Product Development Team under the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Aviation We...
Authors: Jennifer L. Mahoney · Updated March 15, 2021

Scale Awareness, Resolved Circulations, and Practical Limits in the MYNN–EDMF Boundary Layer and Shallow Cumulus Scheme

Proper behavior of physics parameterizations in numerical models at grid sizes of order 1 km is a topic of current research. Modifications to parameterization schemes to accommodate varying grid sizes are termed “scale aware.” The general problem ...
Authors: Joseph B. Olson David (Dave) D. Turner Wayne M. Angevine Jake J. Gristey Ian Glenn Graham Feingold · Updated May 27, 2021

Improving Wind Energy Forecasting through Numerical Weather Prediction Model Development

The primary goal of the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is to advance the state-of-the-art of wind energy forecasting in complex terrain. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive 18-month field measurement campaign was conducted in t...
Authors: Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon David (Dave) D. Turner Michael D. Toy John M. Brown Melinda C. Marquis · Updated April 08, 2021

A Regional GSI-Based Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation System for the Rapid Refresh Configuration: Testing at Reduced Resolution

A regional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) system is established for potential Rapid Refresh (RAP) operational application. The system borrows data processing and observation operators from the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI), and precalcu...
Authors: Kefeng Zhu Stanley G. Benjamin Stephen S. Weygandt Ming Hu · Updated June 11, 2021

Optimal Estimation Retrievals and Their Uncertainties: What Every Atmospheric Scientist Should Know

Remote sensing instruments are heavily used to provide observations for both the operational and research communities. These sensors do not provide direct observations of the desired atmospheric variables, but instead, retrieval algorithms are nec...
Authors: Maximilian Maahn David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated July 16, 2021

Evaluating the WFIP2 updates to the HRRR model using scanning Doppler lidar measurements in the complex terrain of the Columbia River Basin

The wind-energy (WE) industry relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models as foundational or base models for many purposes, including wind-resource assessment and wind-power forecasting. During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement...
Authors: Yelena L. Pichugina robert M. banta W alan. brewer Laura Bianco Caroline Draxl Jaymes S. Kenyon Julie K. Lundquist Joseph B. Olson David (Dave) D. Turner Sonia Wharton James M. wilczak Sunil Baidar Larry K. Berg Harindra J S Fernando Brandi J. McCarty Raj K. Rai Billy Roberts Justin Sharp William J. Shaw Mark T. Stoelinga Rochelle Worsnop · Updated May 03, 2021

Observational case study of a persistent cold pool and gap flow in the Columbia River Basin

Persistent cold pools form as layers of cold stagnant air within topographical depressions mainly during wintertime when the near-surface air cools and/or the air aloft warms and daytime surface heating is insufficient to mix out the stable layer....
Authors: Bianca Adler David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated November 17, 2021

Spatial Variability of Winds and HRRR-NCEP Model Error Statistics at Three Doppler-Lidar Sites in the Wind-Energy Generation Region of the Columbia River Basin

Annually and seasonally averaged wind profiles from three Doppler lidars were obtained from sites in the Columbia River Basin of east-central Oregon and Washington, a major region of wind-energy production, for the WFIP2 experiment. The profile da...
Authors: Yelena L. Pichugina Jaymes S. Kenyon Melinda C. Marquis Joseph B. Olson · Updated August 12, 2021

Data assimilation impact of in situ and remote sensing meteorological observations on wind power forecasts during the first Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)

During the first Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP), new meteorological observations were collected from a large suite of instruments, including wind velocities measured on networks of tall towers provided by wind industry partners, wind spe...
Authors: James M. wilczak Joseph B. Olson · Updated August 13, 2021

Shallow Cumulus in WRF Parameterizations Evaluated against LASSO Large-Eddy Simulations

Representation of shallow cumulus is a challenge for mesoscale numerical weather prediction models. These cloud fields have important effects on temperature, solar irradiance, convective initiation, and pollutant transport, among other processes. ...
Authors: Wayne M. Angevine Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 16, 2021

Sources and characteristics of summertime organic aerosol in the Colorado Front Range: perspective from measurements and WRF-Chem modeling

The evolution of organic aerosols (OAs) and their precursors in the boundary layer (BL) of the Colorado Front Range during the Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Éxperiment (FRAPPÉ, July–August 2014) was analyzed by in situ measurements ...
Authors: Roya Bahreini Ravan Ahmadov · Updated August 16, 2021

Evaluating and Improving NWP Forecast Models for the Future: How the Needs of Offshore Wind Energy Can Point the Way

To advance the understanding of meteorological processes in offshore coastal regions, the spatial variability of wind profiles must be characterized and uncertainties (errors) in NWP model wind forecasts quantified. These gaps are especially criti...
Authors: robert M. banta Eric P. James Joseph B. Olson Stanley G. Benjamin Melinda C. Marquis · Updated August 16, 2021

Response of the Land-Atmosphere System Over North-Central Oklahoma During the 2017 Eclipse

On 21 August 2017, a solar eclipse occurred over the continental United States resulting in a rapid reduction and subsequent increase of solar radiation over a large region of the country. The eclipse's effect on the land-atmosphere system is docu...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 15, 2021

Characteristic Atmospheric Radiative Heating Rate Profiles in Arctic Clouds as Observed at Barrow, Alaska

A 2-yr cloud microphysical property dataset derived from ground-based remote sensors at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site near Barrow, Alaska, was used as input into a radiative transfer model to compute radiative heating rate (RHR) profi...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 15, 2021

Designing the Climate Observing System of the Future

Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and freshwater availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in ...
Authors: Elizabeth (Betsy) C. Weatherhead Jason M. English · Updated September 15, 2021

A New Research Approach for Observing and Characterizing Land–Atmosphere Feedback

Forecast errors with respect to wind, temperature, moisture, clouds, and precipitation largely correspond to the limited capability of current Earth system models to capture and simulate land–atmosphere feedback. To facilitate its realistic simula...
Authors: Volker Wulfmeyer David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 15, 2021

U.S. CH4 emissions from oil and gas production: Have recent large increases been detected?

Recent studies have proposed significant increases in CH4 emissions possibly from oil and gas (O&G) production, especially for the U.S. where O&G production has reached historically high levels over the past decade. In this study, we show that an ...
Authors: Lori M. Bruhwiler Elizabeth (Betsy) C. Weatherhead · Updated September 16, 2021

Parallelization and Performance of the NIM Weather Model on CPU, GPU, and MIC Processors

The design and performance of the Non-Hydrostatic Icosahedral Model (NIM) global weather prediction model is described. NIM is a dynamical core designed to run on central processing unit (CPU), graphics processing unit (GPU), and Many Integrated C...
Authors: Mark W. Govett James Rosinski Jacques Middlecoff thomas B. henderson Jin-Luen Lee Ning Wang paul madden Julie Schramm · Updated September 21, 2021

GSI Three-Dimensional Ensemble–Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation Using a Global Ensemble for the Regional Rapid Refresh Model

The Rapid Refresh (RAP) is an hourly updated regional meteorological data assimilation/short-range model forecast system running operationally at NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) using the community Gridpoint Statistical I...
Authors: Ming Hu Stanley G. Benjamin Therese (Terra) T. Ladwig David C. Dowell Stephen S. Weygandt Curtis R. Alexander · Updated September 22, 2021

Assessment of NWP Forecast Models in Simulating Offshore Winds through the Lower Boundary Layer by Measurements from a Ship-Based Scanning Doppler Lidar

Evaluation of model skill in predicting winds over the ocean was performed by comparing retrospective runs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models to shipborne Doppler lidar measurements in the Gulf of Maine, a potential region for U...
Authors: Yelena L. Pichugina Joseph B. Olson Melinda C. Marquis Eric P. James Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated September 28, 2021

Spatial Coverage of Monitoring Networks: A Climate Observing System Simulation Experiment

Observing systems consisting of a finite number of in situ monitoring stations can provide high-quality measurements with the ability to quality assure both the instruments and the data but offer limited information over larger geographic areas. T...
Authors: Elizabeth (Betsy) C. Weatherhead Jason M. English · Updated September 30, 2021

How long do satellites need to overlap? Evaluation of climate data stability from overlapping satellite records

Sensors on satellites provide unprecedented understanding of the Earth's climate system by measuring incoming solar radiation, as well as both passive and active observations of the entire Earth with outstanding spatial and temporal coverage. A co...
Authors: Elizabeth (Betsy) C. Weatherhead Jason M. English · Updated September 30, 2021

Sense size-dependent dust loading and emission from space using reflected solar and infrared spectral measurements: An observation system simulation experiment

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) satellite mission observes hyperspectral Earth reflected solar (RS) and emitted infrared radiance (IR). Such measurements span an additional dimension on spectrally dependent sca...
Authors: Xiaoguang Xu Li (Kate) Zhang Georg A. Grell · Updated September 30, 2021

Doppler-Lidar Evaluation of HRRR-Model Skill at Simulating Summertime Wind Regimes in the Columbia River Basin during WFIP2

Complex-terrain locations often have repeatable near-surface wind patterns, such as synoptic gap flows and local thermally forced flows. An example is the Columbia River Valley in east-central Oregon-Washington, a significant wind-energy-generatio...
Authors: robert M. banta Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon Stanley G. Benjamin David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated November 01, 2021

Deposition and rainwater concentrations of trifluoroacetic acid in the United States from the use of HFO-1234yf

Currently, HFC-134a (1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane) is the most common refrigerant in automobile air conditioners. This high global warming potential substance (100 year GWP of 1370) will likely be phased out and replaced with HFO-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetr...
Authors: Jan Kazil Georg A. Grell · Updated October 15, 2021

Evaluating Operational and Experimental HRRR Model Forecasts of Atmospheric River Events in California

Improved forecasts of atmospheric river (AR) events, which provide up to half the annual precipitation in California, may reduce impacts to water supply, lives, and property. We evaluate quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the High-Res...
Authors: Jason M. English David (Dave) D. Turner Trevor I. Alcott William R. Moninger Melinda C. Marquis · Updated October 25, 2021

Demonstrating a Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Estimate for Evaluating Precipitation Forecasts in Complex Terrain

Accurate quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) at high spatial and temporal resolution are difficult to obtain in regions of complex terrain due to the large spatial heterogeneity of orographically enhanced precipitation, sparsity of gauges,...
Authors: Janice L. Bytheway Jason M. English · Updated January 12, 2022

A Vertically Flow-Following Icosahedral Grid Model for Medium-Range and Seasonal Prediction. Part I: Model Description

A hydrostatic global weather prediction model based on an icosahedral horizontal grid and a hybrid terrain-following/isentropic vertical coordinate is described. The model is an extension to three spatial dimensions of a previously developed, icos...
Authors: Rainer Bleck Stanley G. Benjamin John M. Brown Michael Fiorino thomas B. henderson Jacques Middlecoff James Rosinski Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Shan Sun Ning Wang · Updated January 25, 2022

An Observing System Simulation Experiment for the Unmanned Aircraft System Data Impact on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts

High-altitude, long-endurance Unmanned Aircraft Systems (HALE UAS) are capable of extended flights for atmospheric sampling. A case study was conducted to evaluate the potential impact of dropwindsonde observations from HALE UAS on tropical cyclon...
Authors: nikki prive Yuanfu Xie · Updated January 26, 2022

AutoNowcaster Pilot Evaluation Study

Authors: steven A. lack Matthew S. Wandishin Melissa A. Petty Jennifer L. Mahoney · Updated January 26, 2022

Inline Coupling of Simple and Complex Chemistry Modules within the Global Weather Forecast model FIM (FIM-Chem v1)

The global Flow-following finite-volume Icosahedral Model (FIM), which was developed in the Global Systems Laboratory of NOAA/ESRL, has been coupled inline with aerosol and gas-phase chemistry schemes of different complexity using the chemistry an...
Authors: Li (Kate) Zhang Georg A. Grell Ravan Ahmadov · Updated January 20, 2022

Comparison of Observations and Predictions of Daytime Planetary-Boundary-Layer Heights and Surface Meteorological Variables in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is an 18-month field campaign in the Pacific Northwest U.S.A., whose goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical-weather-prediction forecasts in complex terrain. The WFIP2 campaign involved the...
Authors: Laura Bianco Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated February 07, 2022

Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions

Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are a major cause of anthropogenic climate change. The deployment of wind and solar power reduces these emissions, but is subject to the variability of the weather. In the present study, we calc...
Authors: Alexander E. MacDonald Christopher TM. Clack Yuanfu Xie · Updated February 14, 2022

Linear programming techniques for developing an optimal electrical system including high-voltage direct-current transmission and storage

The planning and design of an electric power system, including high-voltage direct-current transmission, is a complex optimization problem. The optimization must integrate and model the engineering requirements and limitations of the generation, w...
Authors: Christopher TM. Clack Yuanfu Xie · Updated February 15, 2022

The Earth System Prediction Suite: Toward a Coordinated U.S. Modeling Capability

The Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS) is a collection of flagship U.S. weather and climate models and model components that are being instrumented to conform to interoperability conventions, documented to follow metadata standards, and made ava...
Authors: Gerhard Theurich Steven E. Peckham · Updated February 17, 2022

The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX)

The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) was conducted from 15 May to 15 June 2013 in the central United States. MPEX was motivated by the basic question of whether experimental, subsynoptic observations can extend convective-scale predictab...
Authors: Morris L. Weisman John M. Brown David C. Dowell · Updated February 18, 2022

The Variability and Intermittency of Wind and Solar Power Can Be Overcome Without Storage By Using the National Energy With Weather System (NEWS) Simulator To Design A National US Electric Sector

The importance of weather-driven renewable energies for the United States energy portfolio is growing. The main perceived problems with weather-driven renewable energies are their intermittent nature, low power density, and high costs. The Coopera...
Authors: Christopher TM. Clack Melinda C. Marquis · Updated February 22, 2022

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goal of which is to improve the accuracy of short-term (0–6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of ...
Authors: James M. wilczak Joseph B. Olson Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated February 23, 2022

Understanding high wintertime ozone pollution events in an oil- and natural gas-producing region of the western US

Recent increases in oil and natural gas (NG) production throughout the western US have come with scientific and public interest in emission rates, air quality and climate impacts related to this industry. This study uses a regional-scale air quali...
Authors: Ravan Ahmadov Joseph B. Olson · Updated February 23, 2022

Utilization of Real-Time Vineyard Observations to Produce Downscaled Temperature Forecasts for Frost Protection Operations

Continued drought in California, along with a threatened and endangered salmon population, has required the state of California to control Russian River water usage to protect young, budding winegrape vines during spring frosts. Improved forecasts...
Authors: David W. Reynolds Thomas J. LeFebvre · Updated February 24, 2022

Wavelet Compression Technique for High-Resolution Global Model Data on an Icosahedral Grid

Modern Earth modeling systems often use high-resolution unstructured grids to discretize their horizontal domains. One of the major challenges in working with these high-resolution models is to efficiently transmit and store large volumes of model...
Authors: Ning Wang fanthune moeng · Updated February 24, 2022

Demonstrating the effect of vertical and directional shear for resource mapping of wind power

The use of wind energy is growing around the world, and its growth is set to continue into the foreseeable future. Estimates of the wind speed and power are helpful to assess the potential of new sites for development and to facilitate electric gr...
Authors: Christopher TM. Clack · Updated February 24, 2022

WRF/Chem Version 3.3 User's Guide

Authors: Steven E. Peckham Georg A. Grell · Updated February 25, 2022

Investigating the impacts of daytime boundary layer clouds on surface energy fluxes and boundary layer structure during CHEESEHEAD19

Studies of land-atmosphere interactions under clear sky and low cumulus cloud conditions are common from long-term observatories like at the southern great plains (SGP). How well the relationships and responses of surface radiative and turbulent h...
Authors: Joseph Sedlar David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated February 28, 2022

Simultaneous Observations of Surface Layer Profiles of Humidity, Temperature, and Wind using Scanning Lidar Instruments

We demonstrate the combination of three Doppler lidars, a water vapor differential absorption lidar and a temperature rotational Raman lidar for the investigation of the interactions between the land-surface and the atmospheric boundary layer. Thi...
Authors: Florian Späth David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated March 14, 2022

The Fires, Asian, and Stratospheric Transport–Las Vegas Ozone Study (FAST-LVOS)

he Fires, Asian, and Stratospheric Transport–Las Vegas Ozone Study (FAST-LVOS) was conducted in May and June of 2017 to study the transport of ozone (O3) to Clark County, Nevada, a marginal non-attainment area in the southwestern United States (SW...
Authors: Andrew O. Langford Mariusz Pagowski · Updated March 04, 2022

2020 HFIP R&D Activities Summary: Recent Results and Operational Implementation

This technical report describes the activities and results of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) that occurred in 2020. The major development focus remained in building the next generation hurricane model, the Hurricane Analysis and...
Authors: Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan Curtis R. Alexander Ligia R. Bernardet Evan A. Kalina Paula McCaslin · Updated March 23, 2022

NOAA’s Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) Experiment Observations and Forecast Impacts

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) project evaluated the ability of observations from high-altitude unmanned aircraft to improve forecasts of high-impact weathe...
Authors: Gary A. Wick Jason M. English Tanya R. Peevey Hongli Wang · Updated March 29, 2022

Evaluating convective planetary boundary layer height estimations resolved by both active and passive remote sensing instruments during the CHEESEHEAD19 field campaign

During the Chequamegon Heterogeneous Ecosystem Energy-balance Study Enabled by a High-density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 (CHEESEHEAD19) field campaign, held in the summer of 2019 in northern Wisconsin, USA, active and passive ground-based r...
Authors: James B. Duncan David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated April 25, 2022

Overlapping Windows in a Global Hourly Data Assimilation System

The US operational global data assimilation system provides updated analysis and forecast fields every six hours, which is not frequent enough to handle the rapid error growth associated with hurricanes or other storms. This motivates development ...
Authors: Laura C. Slivinski Guoqing Ge Curtis R. Alexander · Updated May 31, 2022

Development and evaluation of the Aerosol Forecast Member in the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP)'s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS-Aerosols v1)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Weather Service (NWS) is on its way to deploying various operational prediction applications using the Unified Forecast System (, last access: 18 June 2...
Authors: Li (Kate) Zhang Raffaele Montuoro Georg A. Grell Judy K. Henderson Haiqin Li Ravan Ahmadov · Updated July 13, 2022

Assessment of Flood Forecast Products for a Coupled Tributary-Coastal Model

Compound flooding, resulting from a combination of riverine and coastal processes, is a complex but important hazard to resolve along urbanized shorelines in the vicinity of river mouths. However, inland flooding models rarely consider oceanograph...
Authors: Robert C. Cifelli Greg Pratt · Updated August 09, 2022

Simulating wildfire emissions and plume rise using geostationary satellite fire radiative power measurements: a case study of the 2019 Williams Flats fire

We use the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model with new implementations of GOES-16 wildfire emissions and plume rise based on fire radiative power (FRP) to interpret aerosol observations during the 2019 NASA-NOAA FIREX...
Authors: Aditya Kumar Ravan Ahmadov Georg A. Grell · Updated August 16, 2022

Model Evaluation by Measurements from Collocated Remote Sensors in Complex Terrain

Model improvement efforts involve an evaluation of changes in model skill in response to changes in model physics and parameterization. When using wind measurements from various remote sensors to determine model forecast accuracy, it is important ...
Authors: Yelena L. Pichugina robert M. banta W alan. brewer Jaymes S. Kenyon Joseph B. Olson David (Dave) D. Turner James M. wilczak Sunil Baidar Julie K. Lundquist William J. Shaw Sonia Wharton · Updated March 30, 2023