Articles that are assoicated with Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL
Devised scheme to correct GOES bias in GOES operational total precipitable water productsThe National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) Geostationary Observational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-derived, total precipitable water (TPW) vapor product is routinely produced at NESDIS for Advanced Weather Intera...
Authors: Kirk L. Holub seth I. gutman daniel L. birkenheuer susan R. sahm · Updated March 15, 2021
Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) version 2.3Results of an evaluation of GTG version 2.3 (GTG2.3) are presented in this report. The algorithm was analyzed from 1 November 2005 through 31 January 2006. Additionally, GTG2.3 was compared to several existing operational turbulence forecasts incl...
Authors: Jennifer L. Mahoney · Updated March 15, 2021
Quality Assessment Report National Convective Weather Forecast 2 (NCWF-2)This report summarizes a statistical evaluation of the quality of the National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF-2) product, developed by the Convective Weather Product Development Team under the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Aviation We...
Authors: Jennifer L. Mahoney · Updated March 15, 2021
Scale Awareness, Resolved Circulations, and Practical Limits in the MYNN–EDMF Boundary Layer and Shallow Cumulus SchemeProper behavior of physics parameterizations in numerical models at grid sizes of order 1 km is a topic of current research. Modifications to parameterization schemes to accommodate varying grid sizes are termed “scale aware.” The general problem ...
Authors: Joseph B. Olson David (Dave) D. Turner Wayne M. Angevine Jake J. Gristey Ian Glenn Graham Feingold · Updated May 27, 2021
Improving Wind Energy Forecasting through Numerical Weather Prediction Model DevelopmentThe primary goal of the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is to advance the state-of-the-art of wind energy forecasting in complex terrain. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive 18-month field measurement campaign was conducted in t...
Authors: Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon David (Dave) D. Turner Michael D. Toy John M. Brown Melinda C. Marquis · Updated April 08, 2021
A Regional GSI-Based Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation System for the Rapid Refresh Configuration: Testing at Reduced ResolutionA regional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) system is established for potential Rapid Refresh (RAP) operational application. The system borrows data processing and observation operators from the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI), and precalcu...
Authors: Kefeng Zhu Stanley G. Benjamin Stephen S. Weygandt Ming Hu · Updated June 11, 2021
Optimal Estimation Retrievals and Their Uncertainties: What Every Atmospheric Scientist Should KnowRemote sensing instruments are heavily used to provide observations for both the operational and research communities. These sensors do not provide direct observations of the desired atmospheric variables, but instead, retrieval algorithms are nec...
Authors: Maximilian Maahn David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated July 16, 2021
Evaluating the WFIP2 updates to the HRRR model using scanning Doppler lidar measurements in the complex terrain of the Columbia River BasinThe wind-energy (WE) industry relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models as foundational or base models for many purposes, including wind-resource assessment and wind-power forecasting. During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement...
Authors: Yelena L. Pichugina robert M. banta W alan. brewer Laura Bianco Caroline Draxl Jaymes S. Kenyon Julie K. Lundquist Joseph B. Olson David (Dave) D. Turner Sonia Wharton James M. wilczak Sunil Baidar Larry K. Berg Harindra J S Fernando Brandi J. McCarty Raj K. Rai Billy Roberts Justin Sharp William J. Shaw Mark T. Stoelinga Rochelle Worsnop · Updated May 03, 2021
Observational case study of a persistent cold pool and gap flow in the Columbia River BasinPersistent cold pools form as layers of cold stagnant air within topographical depressions mainly during wintertime when the near-surface air cools and/or the air aloft warms and daytime surface heating is insufficient to mix out the stable layer....
Authors: Bianca Adler David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated November 17, 2021
Spatial Variability of Winds and HRRR-NCEP Model Error Statistics at Three Doppler-Lidar Sites in the Wind-Energy Generation Region of the Columbia River BasinAnnually and seasonally averaged wind profiles from three Doppler lidars were obtained from sites in the Columbia River Basin of east-central Oregon and Washington, a major region of wind-energy production, for the WFIP2 experiment. The profile da...
Authors: Yelena L. Pichugina Jaymes S. Kenyon Melinda C. Marquis Joseph B. Olson · Updated August 12, 2021
Data assimilation impact of in situ and remote sensing meteorological observations on wind power forecasts during the first Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)During the first Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP), new meteorological observations were collected from a large suite of instruments, including wind velocities measured on networks of tall towers provided by wind industry partners, wind spe...
Authors: James M. wilczak Joseph B. Olson · Updated August 13, 2021
Shallow Cumulus in WRF Parameterizations Evaluated against LASSO Large-Eddy SimulationsRepresentation of shallow cumulus is a challenge for mesoscale numerical weather prediction models. These cloud fields have important effects on temperature, solar irradiance, convective initiation, and pollutant transport, among other processes. ...
Authors: Wayne M. Angevine Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated August 16, 2021
Sources and characteristics of summertime organic aerosol in the Colorado Front Range: perspective from measurements and WRF-Chem modelingThe evolution of organic aerosols (OAs) and their precursors in the boundary layer (BL) of the Colorado Front Range during the Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Éxperiment (FRAPPÉ, July–August 2014) was analyzed by in situ measurements ...
Authors: Roya Bahreini Ravan Ahmadov · Updated August 16, 2021
Evaluating and Improving NWP Forecast Models for the Future: How the Needs of Offshore Wind Energy Can Point the WayTo advance the understanding of meteorological processes in offshore coastal regions, the spatial variability of wind profiles must be characterized and uncertainties (errors) in NWP model wind forecasts quantified. These gaps are especially criti...
Authors: robert M. banta Eric P. James Joseph B. Olson Stanley G. Benjamin Melinda C. Marquis · Updated August 16, 2021
Response of the Land-Atmosphere System Over North-Central Oklahoma During the 2017 EclipseOn 21 August 2017, a solar eclipse occurred over the continental United States resulting in a rapid reduction and subsequent increase of solar radiation over a large region of the country. The eclipse's effect on the land-atmosphere system is docu...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 15, 2021
Characteristic Atmospheric Radiative Heating Rate Profiles in Arctic Clouds as Observed at Barrow, AlaskaA 2-yr cloud microphysical property dataset derived from ground-based remote sensors at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site near Barrow, Alaska, was used as input into a radiative transfer model to compute radiative heating rate (RHR) profi...
Authors: David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 15, 2021
Designing the Climate Observing System of the FutureClimate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and freshwater availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in ...
Authors: Elizabeth (Betsy) C. Weatherhead Jason M. English · Updated September 15, 2021
A New Research Approach for Observing and Characterizing Land–Atmosphere FeedbackForecast errors with respect to wind, temperature, moisture, clouds, and precipitation largely correspond to the limited capability of current Earth system models to capture and simulate land–atmosphere feedback. To facilitate its realistic simula...
Authors: Volker Wulfmeyer David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated September 15, 2021
U.S. CH4 emissions from oil and gas production: Have recent large increases been detected?Recent studies have proposed significant increases in CH4 emissions possibly from oil and gas (O&G) production, especially for the U.S. where O&G production has reached historically high levels over the past decade. In this study, we show that an ...
Authors: Lori M. Bruhwiler Elizabeth (Betsy) C. Weatherhead · Updated September 16, 2021
Parallelization and Performance of the NIM Weather Model on CPU, GPU, and MIC ProcessorsThe design and performance of the Non-Hydrostatic Icosahedral Model (NIM) global weather prediction model is described. NIM is a dynamical core designed to run on central processing unit (CPU), graphics processing unit (GPU), and Many Integrated C...
Authors: Mark W. Govett James Rosinski Jacques Middlecoff thomas B. henderson Jin-Luen Lee Ning Wang paul madden Julie Schramm · Updated September 21, 2021
GSI Three-Dimensional Ensemble–Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation Using a Global Ensemble for the Regional Rapid Refresh ModelThe Rapid Refresh (RAP) is an hourly updated regional meteorological data assimilation/short-range model forecast system running operationally at NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) using the community Gridpoint Statistical I...
Authors: Ming Hu Stanley G. Benjamin Therese (Terra) T. Ladwig David C. Dowell Stephen S. Weygandt Curtis R. Alexander · Updated September 22, 2021
Assessment of NWP Forecast Models in Simulating Offshore Winds through the Lower Boundary Layer by Measurements from a Ship-Based Scanning Doppler LidarEvaluation of model skill in predicting winds over the ocean was performed by comparing retrospective runs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models to shipborne Doppler lidar measurements in the Gulf of Maine, a potential region for U...
Authors: Yelena L. Pichugina Joseph B. Olson Melinda C. Marquis Eric P. James Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated September 28, 2021
Spatial Coverage of Monitoring Networks: A Climate Observing System Simulation ExperimentObserving systems consisting of a finite number of in situ monitoring stations can provide high-quality measurements with the ability to quality assure both the instruments and the data but offer limited information over larger geographic areas. T...
Authors: Elizabeth (Betsy) C. Weatherhead Jason M. English · Updated September 30, 2021
How long do satellites need to overlap? Evaluation of climate data stability from overlapping satellite recordsSensors on satellites provide unprecedented understanding of the Earth's climate system by measuring incoming solar radiation, as well as both passive and active observations of the entire Earth with outstanding spatial and temporal coverage. A co...
Authors: Elizabeth (Betsy) C. Weatherhead Jason M. English · Updated September 30, 2021
Sense size-dependent dust loading and emission from space using reflected solar and infrared spectral measurements: An observation system simulation experimentThe Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) satellite mission observes hyperspectral Earth reflected solar (RS) and emitted infrared radiance (IR). Such measurements span an additional dimension on spectrally dependent sca...
Authors: Xiaoguang Xu Li (Kate) Zhang Georg A. Grell · Updated September 30, 2021
Doppler-Lidar Evaluation of HRRR-Model Skill at Simulating Summertime Wind Regimes in the Columbia River Basin during WFIP2Complex-terrain locations often have repeatable near-surface wind patterns, such as synoptic gap flows and local thermally forced flows. An example is the Columbia River Valley in east-central Oregon-Washington, a significant wind-energy-generatio...
Authors: robert M. banta Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon Stanley G. Benjamin David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated November 01, 2021
Deposition and rainwater concentrations of trifluoroacetic acid in the United States from the use of HFO-1234yfCurrently, HFC-134a (1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane) is the most common refrigerant in automobile air conditioners. This high global warming potential substance (100 year GWP of 1370) will likely be phased out and replaced with HFO-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetr...
Authors: Jan Kazil Georg A. Grell · Updated October 15, 2021
Evaluating Operational and Experimental HRRR Model Forecasts of Atmospheric River Events in CaliforniaImproved forecasts of atmospheric river (AR) events, which provide up to half the annual precipitation in California, may reduce impacts to water supply, lives, and property. We evaluate quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the High-Res...
Authors: Jason M. English David (Dave) D. Turner Trevor I. Alcott William R. Moninger Melinda C. Marquis · Updated October 25, 2021
Demonstrating a Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Estimate for Evaluating Precipitation Forecasts in Complex TerrainAccurate quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) at high spatial and temporal resolution are difficult to obtain in regions of complex terrain due to the large spatial heterogeneity of orographically enhanced precipitation, sparsity of gauges,...
Authors: Janice L. Bytheway Jason M. English · Updated January 12, 2022
A Vertically Flow-Following Icosahedral Grid Model for Medium-Range and Seasonal Prediction. Part I: Model DescriptionA hydrostatic global weather prediction model based on an icosahedral horizontal grid and a hybrid terrain-following/isentropic vertical coordinate is described. The model is an extension to three spatial dimensions of a previously developed, icos...
Authors: Rainer Bleck Stanley G. Benjamin John M. Brown Michael Fiorino thomas B. henderson Jacques Middlecoff James Rosinski Tatiana (Tanya) R. Smirnova Shan Sun Ning Wang · Updated January 25, 2022
An Observing System Simulation Experiment for the Unmanned Aircraft System Data Impact on Tropical Cyclone Track ForecastsHigh-altitude, long-endurance Unmanned Aircraft Systems (HALE UAS) are capable of extended flights for atmospheric sampling. A case study was conducted to evaluate the potential impact of dropwindsonde observations from HALE UAS on tropical cyclon...
Authors: nikki prive Yuanfu Xie · Updated January 26, 2022
AutoNowcaster Pilot Evaluation Study
Authors: steven A. lack Matthew S. Wandishin Melissa A. Petty Jennifer L. Mahoney · Updated January 26, 2022
Inline Coupling of Simple and Complex Chemistry Modules within the Global Weather Forecast model FIM (FIM-Chem v1)The global Flow-following finite-volume Icosahedral Model (FIM), which was developed in the Global Systems Laboratory of NOAA/ESRL, has been coupled inline with aerosol and gas-phase chemistry schemes of different complexity using the chemistry an...
Authors: Li (Kate) Zhang Georg A. Grell Ravan Ahmadov · Updated January 20, 2022
Comparison of Observations and Predictions of Daytime Planetary-Boundary-Layer Heights and Surface Meteorological Variables in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement ProjectThe second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is an 18-month field campaign in the Pacific Northwest U.S.A., whose goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical-weather-prediction forecasts in complex terrain. The WFIP2 campaign involved the...
Authors: Laura Bianco Joseph B. Olson Jaymes S. Kenyon David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated February 07, 2022
Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissionsCarbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are a major cause of anthropogenic climate change. The deployment of wind and solar power reduces these emissions, but is subject to the variability of the weather. In the present study, we calc...
Authors: Alexander E. MacDonald Christopher TM. Clack Yuanfu Xie · Updated February 14, 2022
Linear programming techniques for developing an optimal electrical system including high-voltage direct-current transmission and storageThe planning and design of an electric power system, including high-voltage direct-current transmission, is a complex optimization problem. The optimization must integrate and model the engineering requirements and limitations of the generation, w...
Authors: Christopher TM. Clack Yuanfu Xie · Updated February 15, 2022
The Earth System Prediction Suite: Toward a Coordinated U.S. Modeling CapabilityThe Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS) is a collection of flagship U.S. weather and climate models and model components that are being instrumented to conform to interoperability conventions, documented to follow metadata standards, and made ava...
Authors: Gerhard Theurich Steven E. Peckham · Updated February 17, 2022
The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX)The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) was conducted from 15 May to 15 June 2013 in the central United States. MPEX was motivated by the basic question of whether experimental, subsynoptic observations can extend convective-scale predictab...
Authors: Morris L. Weisman John M. Brown David C. Dowell · Updated February 18, 2022
The Variability and Intermittency of Wind and Solar Power Can Be Overcome Without Storage By Using the National Energy With Weather System (NEWS) Simulator To Design A National US Electric SectorThe importance of weather-driven renewable energies for the United States energy portfolio is growing. The main perceived problems with weather-driven renewable energies are their intermittent nature, low power density, and high costs. The Coopera...
Authors: Christopher TM. Clack Melinda C. Marquis · Updated February 22, 2022
The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast NeedsThe Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goal of which is to improve the accuracy of short-term (0–6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of ...
Authors: James M. wilczak Joseph B. Olson Stanley G. Benjamin · Updated February 23, 2022
Understanding high wintertime ozone pollution events in an oil- and natural gas-producing region of the western USRecent increases in oil and natural gas (NG) production throughout the western US have come with scientific and public interest in emission rates, air quality and climate impacts related to this industry. This study uses a regional-scale air quali...
Authors: Ravan Ahmadov Joseph B. Olson · Updated February 23, 2022
Utilization of Real-Time Vineyard Observations to Produce Downscaled Temperature Forecasts for Frost Protection OperationsContinued drought in California, along with a threatened and endangered salmon population, has required the state of California to control Russian River water usage to protect young, budding winegrape vines during spring frosts. Improved forecasts...
Authors: David W. Reynolds Thomas J. LeFebvre · Updated February 24, 2022
Wavelet Compression Technique for High-Resolution Global Model Data on an Icosahedral GridModern Earth modeling systems often use high-resolution unstructured grids to discretize their horizontal domains. One of the major challenges in working with these high-resolution models is to efficiently transmit and store large volumes of model...
Authors: Ning Wang fanthune moeng · Updated February 24, 2022
Demonstrating the effect of vertical and directional shear for resource mapping of wind powerThe use of wind energy is growing around the world, and its growth is set to continue into the foreseeable future. Estimates of the wind speed and power are helpful to assess the potential of new sites for development and to facilitate electric gr...
Authors: Christopher TM. Clack · Updated February 24, 2022
WRF/Chem Version 3.3 User's Guide
Authors: Steven E. Peckham Georg A. Grell · Updated February 25, 2022
Investigating the impacts of daytime boundary layer clouds on surface energy fluxes and boundary layer structure during CHEESEHEAD19Studies of land-atmosphere interactions under clear sky and low cumulus cloud conditions are common from long-term observatories like at the southern great plains (SGP). How well the relationships and responses of surface radiative and turbulent h...
Authors: Joseph Sedlar David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated February 28, 2022
Simultaneous Observations of Surface Layer Profiles of Humidity, Temperature, and Wind using Scanning Lidar InstrumentsWe demonstrate the combination of three Doppler lidars, a water vapor differential absorption lidar and a temperature rotational Raman lidar for the investigation of the interactions between the land-surface and the atmospheric boundary layer. Thi...
Authors: Florian Späth David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated March 14, 2022
The Fires, Asian, and Stratospheric Transport–Las Vegas Ozone Study (FAST-LVOS)he Fires, Asian, and Stratospheric Transport–Las Vegas Ozone Study (FAST-LVOS) was conducted in May and June of 2017 to study the transport of ozone (O3) to Clark County, Nevada, a marginal non-attainment area in the southwestern United States (SW...
Authors: Andrew O. Langford Mariusz Pagowski · Updated March 04, 2022
2020 HFIP R&D Activities Summary: Recent Results and Operational ImplementationThis technical report describes the activities and results of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) that occurred in 2020. The major development focus remained in building the next generation hurricane model, the Hurricane Analysis and...
Authors: Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan Curtis R. Alexander Ligia R. Bernardet Evan A. Kalina Paula McCaslin · Updated March 23, 2022
NOAA’s Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) Experiment Observations and Forecast ImpactsThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) project evaluated the ability of observations from high-altitude unmanned aircraft to improve forecasts of high-impact weathe...
Authors: Gary A. Wick Jason M. English Tanya R. Peevey Hongli Wang · Updated March 29, 2022
Evaluating convective planetary boundary layer height estimations resolved by both active and passive remote sensing instruments during the CHEESEHEAD19 field campaignDuring the Chequamegon Heterogeneous Ecosystem Energy-balance Study Enabled by a High-density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 (CHEESEHEAD19) field campaign, held in the summer of 2019 in northern Wisconsin, USA, active and passive ground-based r...
Authors: James B. Duncan David (Dave) D. Turner · Updated April 25, 2022
Overlapping Windows in a Global Hourly Data Assimilation SystemThe US operational global data assimilation system provides updated analysis and forecast fields every six hours, which is not frequent enough to handle the rapid error growth associated with hurricanes or other storms. This motivates development ...
Authors: Laura C. Slivinski Guoqing Ge Curtis R. Alexander · Updated May 31, 2022
Development and evaluation of the Aerosol Forecast Member in the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP)'s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS-Aerosols v1)The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Weather Service (NWS) is on its way to deploying various operational prediction applications using the Unified Forecast System (https://ufscommunity.org/, last access: 18 June 2...
Authors: Li (Kate) Zhang Raffaele Montuoro Georg A. Grell Judy K. Henderson Haiqin Li Ravan Ahmadov · Updated July 13, 2022
Assessment of Flood Forecast Products for a Coupled Tributary-Coastal ModelCompound flooding, resulting from a combination of riverine and coastal processes, is a complex but important hazard to resolve along urbanized shorelines in the vicinity of river mouths. However, inland flooding models rarely consider oceanograph...
Authors: Robert C. Cifelli Greg Pratt · Updated August 09, 2022
Simulating wildfire emissions and plume rise using geostationary satellite fire radiative power measurements: a case study of the 2019 Williams Flats fireWe use the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model with new implementations of GOES-16 wildfire emissions and plume rise based on fire radiative power (FRP) to interpret aerosol observations during the 2019 NASA-NOAA FIREX...
Authors: Aditya Kumar Ravan Ahmadov Georg A. Grell · Updated August 16, 2022
Model Evaluation by Measurements from Collocated Remote Sensors in Complex TerrainModel improvement efforts involve an evaluation of changes in model skill in response to changes in model physics and parameterization. When using wind measurements from various remote sensors to determine model forecast accuracy, it is important ...
Authors: Yelena L. Pichugina robert M. banta W alan. brewer Jaymes S. Kenyon Joseph B. Olson David (Dave) D. Turner James M. wilczak Sunil Baidar Julie K. Lundquist William J. Shaw Sonia Wharton · Updated March 30, 2023