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Joseph B. Olson authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.
A modified approach to initialize an idealized extratropical cyclone within a mesoscale model
A technique for initializing realistic idealized extratropical cyclones for short-term (0–72 h) numerical simulations is described. The approach modifies select methods from two previous studies to provide more control over the initial cyclone structure. Additional features added to the technique include 1) deformation functions to initialize mo...
Improving Wind Energy Forecasting through Numerical Weather Prediction Model Development
The primary goal of the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is to advance the state-of-the-art of wind energy forecasting in complex terrain. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive 18-month field measurement campaign was conducted in the region of the Columbia River basin. The observations were used to diagnose and quantify systemati...
Institutions National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR
The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is a multiagency field campaign held in the Columbia Gorge area (October 2015–March 2017). The main goal of the project is to understand and improve the forecast skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in complex terrain, particularly beneficial for the wind energy industry. This re...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Proper behavior of physics parameterizations in numerical models at grid sizes of order 1 km is a topic of current research. Modifications to parameterization schemes to accommodate varying grid sizes are termed “scale aware.” The general problem of grids on which a physical process is partially resolved is called the “gray zone” or “terra incog...
Institutions National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL
A Description of the MYNN-EDMF Scheme and the Coupling to Other Components in WRF–ARW
The Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) (Nakanishi and Niino 2001, 2004, 2006, and 2009) scheme was first integrated into the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) version 3.1 (Skamarock et al. 2008) by Mariusz Pagowski of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Systems Divis...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Representing shallow cumulus in numerical weather prediction and climate models is a significant challenge. Misrepresenting these subgrid-scale clouds can result in large errors in the downwelling shortwave radiative flux at surface, resulting in large errors in the surface temperature that results in feedbacks into the accuracy of the thermodyn...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Addressing Common Cloud - Radiation Errors from ~4-hour to 4-week Model Prediction
Cloud-radiation representation in models for subgrid-scale clouds is a known gap from subseasonal-to-seasonal models down to storm-scale models applied for forecast duration of only a few hours. NOAA/ESRL has been applying common physical parameterizations for scale-aware deep/shallow convection and boundary-layer mixing over this wide range of ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The terrain-following vertical coordinate system used by many atmospheric models, including the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, is prone to errors in regions of complex terrain. These errors stem, in part, from the calculation of horizontal gradients within the diffusion term of the momentum or scalar evolution equations. In WRF, s...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The wind-energy (WE) industry relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models as foundational or base models for many purposes, including wind-resource assessment and wind-power forecasting. During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) in the Columbia River Basin of Oregon and Washington, a significant effort was made...
Institutions Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A Progress Report on the Development of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE) is a 36-member ensemble analysis system with 9 forecast members that utilizes the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) dynamic core and the physics suite from the operational Rapid Refresh/High-Resolution Rapid Refresh deterministic modeling system. A goal ...
Institutions National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The Mellor‐Yamada‐Nakanishi‐Niino (MYNN) parameterization applied in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been augmented to include the Eddy‐Diffusion Mass‐Flux (EDMF) approach to better represent transport by boundary‐layer eddies. This change includes the addition of new parameters associated with convective updrafts and bounda...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Ground-based Doppler-lidar instrumentation provides atmospheric wind data at dramatically improved accuracies and spatial/temporal resolutions. These capabilities have provided new insights into atmospheric flow phenomena, but they also should have a strong role in NWP model improvement. Insight into the nature of model errors can be gained by s...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
A Description of the MYNN Surface-Layer Scheme
The surface-layer scheme controls the degree of coupling between the model surface and the atmosphere. Traditionally, surface-layer schemes have been developed to be paired with certain planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, but this singular pairing is too narrow in scope for modern physics suites, since the surfac...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The first Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) was a DOE and NOAA?funded 2?year?long observational, data assimilation, and modeling study with a 1?year?long field campaign aimed at demonstrating improvements in the accuracy of wind forecasts generated by the assimilation of additional observations for wind energy applications. In this paper,...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
We extend the model sensitivity analysis of Yang et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 162: 117–142, 2017) to include results for February 2011, in addition to May of the same year. We investigate the sensitivity of simulated hub-height wind speeds to the selection of 12 parameters applied in the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino planetary boundary-layer ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
During the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2; Oct 2015–Mar 2017, Columbia River Gorge and Basin area) several improvements to the parameterizations applied in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR – 3?km horizontal grid spacing) and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST – 750?m horizontal grid spacing) Numerical Weathe...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Stochastically Perturbed Parameterizations in a HRRR-Based Ensemble
A stochastically perturbed parameterization (SPP) approach that spatially and temporally perturbs parameters and variables in the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino planetary boundary layer scheme (PBL) and introduces initialization perturbations to soil moisture in the Rapid Update Cycle land surface model was developed within the High Resolution Ra...
Institutions National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Annually and seasonally averaged wind profiles from three Doppler lidars were obtained from sites in the Columbia River Basin of east-central Oregon and Washington, a major region of wind-energy production, for the WFIP2 experiment. The profile data are used to quantify the spatial variability of wind flows in this area of complex-terrain, to as...
Institutions Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Wind power installations have been increasing in recent years. Because wind turbines can influence local wind speeds, temperatures and surface fluxes, weather forecasting models should consider their effects. Wind farm parameterizations do currently exist for numerical weather prediction models. They generally consider two turbine impacts: eleva...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): General Overview
In 2015 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiated a 4-yr study, the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2), to improve the representation of boundary layer physics and related processes in mesoscale models for better treatment of scales applicable to wind and wind power forecasts. This goal challenges numerical weather prediction (...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): Observational Field Campaign
The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)- and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-funded program, with private-sector and university partners, which aims to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts of wind speed in complex terrain for wind energ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
During the first Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP), new meteorological observations were collected from a large suite of instruments, including wind velocities measured on networks of tall towers provided by wind industry partners, wind speeds measured by cup anemometers mounted on the nacelles of wind turbines, and wind profiles by netwo...
Institutions Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Shallow Cumulus in WRF Parameterizations Evaluated against LASSO Large-Eddy Simulations
Representation of shallow cumulus is a challenge for mesoscale numerical weather prediction models. These cloud fields have important effects on temperature, solar irradiance, convective initiation, and pollutant transport, among other processes. Recent improvements to physics schemes available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model...
Institutions Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
To advance the understanding of meteorological processes in offshore coastal regions, the spatial variability of wind profiles must be characterized and uncertainties (errors) in NWP model wind forecasts quantified. These gaps are especially critical for the new offshore wind energy industry, where wind profile measurements in the marine atmosph...
Institutions Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Exploring the convective grey zone with regional simulations of a cold air outbreak
Cold air outbreaks can bring snow to populated areas and can affect aviation safety. Shortcomings in the representation of these phenomena in global and regional models are thought to be associated with large systematic cloud-related radiative flux errors across many models. In this study, nine regional models have been used to simulate a cold a...
Institution National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR
A stochastic parameter perturbation (SPP) scheme consisting of spatially and temporally varying perturbations of uncertain parameters in the Grell–Freitas convective scheme and the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino planetary boundary scheme was developed within the Rapid Refresh ensemble system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Al...
Institutions National Center for Atmospheric Research - NCAR National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Evaluation of model skill in predicting winds over the ocean was performed by comparing retrospective runs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models to shipborne Doppler lidar measurements in the Gulf of Maine, a potential region for U.S. coastal wind farm development. Deployed on board the NOAA R/V Ronald H. Brown during a 2004 fiel...
Institutions Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Complex-terrain locations often have repeatable near-surface wind patterns, such as synoptic gap flows and local thermally forced flows. An example is the Columbia River Valley in east-central Oregon-Washington, a significant wind-energy-generation region and the site of the Second Wind-Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Data from three Doppl...
Institutions Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
During the summer of 2004 a network of 11 wind profiling radars (WPRs) was deployed in New England as part of the New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). We utilize observations from this data set to determine their impact on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model skill at simulating coastal and offshore winds through data-denial experiment. Th...
A North American Hourly Assimilation and Model Forecast Cycle: The Rapid Refresh
The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly-updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in 2012. The need for an effective hourly-updated assimilation and modeling sys...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is an 18-month field campaign in the Pacific Northwest U.S.A., whose goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical-weather-prediction forecasts in complex terrain. The WFIP2 campaign involved the deployment of a large suite of in situ and remote sensing instrumentation, including eight 915-MHz ...
Institutions Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Doppler Lidar in the Wind Forecast Improvement Projects
This paper will provide an overview of some projects in support of Wind Energy development involving Doppler lidar measurement of wind flow profiles. The high temporal and vertical resolution of these profiles allows the uncertainty of Numerical Weather Prediction models to be evaluated in forecasting dynamic processes and wind flow phenomena in...
The 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) and 3-km convective-allowing High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) are hourly updating weather forecast models that use a specially configured version of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and assimilate many novel and most conventional observation types on an hourly basis using Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Progress Toward Improved Solar Forecasts in Hourly Updated RAP and HRRR Forecasts
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 3km hourly updated model is now being run operationally at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). A focus on improved cloud/solar forecasts has been central to development of HRRRv2 and HRRRv3 experimental versions, along with the parent 13km Rapid Refresh (RAP). Experimental, advanc...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
An operational upgrade of the RAP and HRRR model systems at NCEP is planned for August 2016. This coordinated upgrade (RAP version 3 and HRRR version 2, RAPv3/HRRRv2) includes many enhancements to the data assimilation, model, and post-processing formulations that result in significant improvements to nearly all forecast aspects, including uppe...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goal of which is to improve the accuracy of short-term (0–6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that included the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)...
Institutions Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Recent increases in oil and natural gas (NG) production throughout the western US have come with scientific and public interest in emission rates, air quality and climate impacts related to this industry. This study uses a regional-scale air quality model (WRF-Chem) to simulate high ozone (O3) episodes during the winter of 2013 over the Uinta Ba...
Institution Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a convection-allowing implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW) with hourly data assimilation that covers the conterminous United States and Alaska and runs in real time at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Implemented operationally at NOAA/NCEP in 201...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a convection-allowing implementation of the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF-ARW) that covers the conterminous United States and Alaska and runs hourly (for CONUS; every three hours for Alaska) in real time at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The high-resolution forec...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Model Evaluation by Measurements from Collocated Remote Sensors in Complex Terrain
Model improvement efforts involve an evaluation of changes in model skill in response to changes in model physics and parameterization. When using wind measurements from various remote sensors to determine model forecast accuracy, it is important to understand the effects of measurement-uncertainty differences among the sensors resulting from di...
Institutions Earth System Research Laboratory - ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The accurate forecast of persistent orographic cold-air pools in numerical weather prediction models is essential for the optimal integration of wind energy into the electrical grid during these events. Model development efforts during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) aimed to address the challenges also related to this. We e...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Abstract Climate and numerical weather prediction models require assumptions to represent the vertical distribution of subgrid-scale clouds, which have radiative transfer implications. In this study, nearly 25 years of ground-based radar and lidar observations of vertical cloud profiles at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Sou...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The structure and evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) under clear-sky fair weather conditions over mountainous terrain is dominated by the diurnal cycle of the surface energy balance and thus strongly depends on surface snow cover. We use data from three passive ground-based infrared spectrometers deployed in the East River Valley ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The performance of version 4 of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model for near-surface variables, including wind, humidity, temperature, surface latent and sensible fluxes, and longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes, is examined over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SG...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The distribution of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and its budget terms is estimated in simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) of various intensities. Each simulated TC is subject to storm motion, wind shear, and oceanic coupling. Different storm intensities are achieved through different ocean profiles in the model initialization. For each oceanic p...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA